There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. In a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think National Vision Holdings (NASDAQ:EYE) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for National Vision Holdings, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.024 = US$48m ÷ (US$2.3b - US$363m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to July 2023).

Therefore, National Vision Holdings has an ROCE of 2.4%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Specialty Retail industry average of 13%.

See our latest analysis for National Vision Holdings

Above you can see how the current ROCE for National Vision Holdings compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

What Can We Tell From National Vision Holdings' ROCE Trend?

On the surface, the trend of ROCE at National Vision Holdings doesn't inspire confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 5.4%, but since then they've fallen to 2.4%. However it looks like National Vision Holdings might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.

The Bottom Line On National Vision Holdings' ROCE

To conclude, we've found that National Vision Holdings is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. And in the last five years, the stock has given away 64% so the market doesn't look too hopeful on these trends strengthening any time soon. Therefore based on the analysis done in this article, we don't think National Vision Holdings has the makings of a multi-bagger.

National Vision Holdings does have some risks though, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for National Vision Holdings that you might be interested in.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.