Zhitong Financial APP learned that Zhejiang Merchants Securities released research reports that recently large overseas companies have issued financial reports, represented by Microsoft Corp, Alphabet Inc-CL C, Meta and Amazon.Com Inc. Overseas AI companies actively embrace the wave of AI commercialization in large models, cloud computing, search and advertising, productivity tools and other races, and make efforts to layout AI model applications and product services, which are leading a new round of AI industry reform. The bank believes that as overseas companies continue to advance in artificial intelligence infrastructure, model algorithms and application product layout, AI+ industry applications are expected to explode. Domestic AI application in the second half of the year is expected to usher in policy and demand resonance, showing a "hundred flowers blossom" situation.
The main points of Zheshang Securities are as follows:
Cloud computing: the commercialization of AI accelerates the growth of the cloud computing market, and Amazon.Com Inc, Microsoft Corp and Alphabet Inc-CL C compete for supremacy
According to T4.ai 's forecast, the global cloud computing market is expected to exceed US $600 billion by 2024, while ForresterConsulting's research on Azure cloud services shows that enterprise users can achieve a return on investment of 284% in three-year projects using AzureAI services. AI+ cloud services can provide significant economic benefits for enterprises in the areas of model reasoning, data management, business analysis and so on. At present, the competition pattern in the global cloud computing market is stable. Amazon.Com Inc AWS, Microsoft Corp Azure and Alphabet Inc-CL C GCP compete for supremacy. Each has a layout in the AI model, vector database, code assistant and other links, and the industry concentration is expected to continue to improve.
Search engine and advertising: Alphabet Inc-CL C's leading position is solid, Microsoft Corp takes the lead in the layout of enterprise-level services.
The combination of AI model and search engine is expected to change users' habits and subvert users' ecology. Microsoft Corp preemptively laid out the NewBing search engine combined with the GPT-4 model, while Alphabet Inc-CL C followed by Bard and GoogleSGE (SearchGenerativeExperience) search engine. The bank believes that the competitive pattern of the search engine market will not change in the short term, while Alphabet Inc-CL C is expected to rely on the AI model combined with advertising business to achieve high-quality growth. Microsoft Corp's commercial landing based on enterprise search services is expected to contribute revenue increment. It is estimated that Microsoft Corp enterprise search engine BingChatEnterprise can contribute $2.968 billion in annual revenue increment in the case of 10% penetration.
Productivity tools: AIGC can greatly improve productivity, office, code development and other scenarios are expected to take the lead in landing
According to McKinsey's research report, the potential economic value of the full penetration of AIGC technology into all aspects of productivity can reach $6.1 to $7.9 trillion. In the marketing scenario, the application of AIGC technology can increase user productivity by more than 30%. Microsoft Corp, Salesforce.com Inc and other big companies have successively launched productivity tools based on AI large model technology, and have announced some applied charging models (OfficeCopilot, GitHubCopilot, Salesforcesalescloud, etc.). AIGC business is expected to open growth space on the basis of the original business.
Big model ecology: big factories firmly advance to the multimodal field, and constantly consolidate the competitiveness of the model through investment and financing.
The continuous layout multimodal AI model of AI factory, represented by Microsoft Corp, Alphabet Inc-CL C and Meta, continues to publish research results in the field of video generation and processing and robotics. At the same time, overseas big companies continue to accumulate the basis of model algorithms and consolidate their core competitiveness by investing in AI entrepreneurial teams such as Inflection and Anthropic, and a "big fish eat small fish" pattern has been formed in the field of large models.
In the second half of the year, domestic AI applications are expected to meet the resonance of policy and demand, showing a situation of "letting a hundred flowers blossom".
On the one hand, the regulatory policy of the large model is constantly improving, and the time point of comprehensive commercial use is gradually approaching. On August 15, the interim measures for the Administration of generative artificial Intelligence Services was formally implemented, and the policy promotion is expected to promote the healthy development and standardized application of generative artificial intelligence, safeguard national security and social and public interests, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of citizens, legal persons and other organizations.
On the other hand, the bank expects the large model applications of domestic software manufacturers to be released intensively in the second half of the year. The bank has seen that a number of listed companies have recently held AI product launches and disclosed the latest progress and achievements in the iteration of large models, indicating that software companies have excavated the needs of government or enterprise customers in large models, and have begun to prepare and plan, which is expected to enter the commercial landing phase in the second half of the year.
It is recommended to pay attention to the subject matter:
AI+ office: Kingsoft office (688111.SH), remote interconnection (688369.SH)
AI+ Education: iFLYTEK (002230.SZ)
AI+ government affairs: new point software (688232.SH), Tolls (300229.SZ), Tongdahai (301378.SZ)
AI+ Finance: 300674.SZ, 603927.SH, 600570.SH
AI+ Security: 300188.SZ
AI+ remote sensing: space macro map (688066.SH), Chinese science star map (688568.SH)
Risk Tips:1) the risk that the AI technology iteration is not as expected: 2) the commercial product release of AI is not as expected; 3) the risk caused by policy uncertainty; 4) the risk caused by downstream market uncertainty.