Harmonic Likely To See Upside After Securing Comcast Deal And Emerges As Front-Runner For Charter Win, Analysts Say
Harmonic Likely To See Upside After Securing Comcast Deal And Emerges As Front-Runner For Charter Win, Analysts Say
諧波可能會看到上行確保康卡斯特交易後，並出現作為前亞軍憲章勝利, 分析師說
- Needham analyst Ryan Koontz reiterated Harmonic Inc (NASDAQ:HLIT) with a Buy and maintained a $19 price target.
- HLIT reported a strong 4Q22. Revenue and Non-GAAP EPS of $164.3 million and $0.17 beat consensus estimates.
- Comcast Corp (NASDAQ:CMCSA) carried the quarter at 48% customer concentration, sure to concern investors that other tier 1 CableOS software deployments are not scaling as quickly.
- Book/bill of 0.79 declined from 1.1 last quarter, while total backlog and deferred revenue of $457.1 million (+4% Y/Y -7% Q/Q) reflected normalization of post-pandemic customer ordering patterns.
- The 1Q23 and F23 guidance was described as "conservative" and assumes little contribution from new cable customer wins and reflects the transition in video from license to subscription revenue.
- The analyst's F23 estimates decline -2%/-$.09, and introduced F24 revenue/EPS numbers at $873 million/$1.00.
- Despite a softer outlook for C23 than hoped, management exhibited a quietly confident tone the analyst believe indicates confidence in ramping wins from existing CableOS wins, a meaningful upside to C23 guidance, and a substantial likelihood of success at Charter Communications, Inc (NASDAQ:CHTR).
- Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold maintained an Outperform and lowered the price target from $18 to $17.
- The analyst's thesis regarding Harmonic's leading position in the evolution of broadband networks remains intact, but those seeking instant gratification may be disappointed.
- The primary negative element stems from the more significant erosion of Harmonic's video segment, but management maintained and expressed confidence in its 2025 outlook.
- With Comcast secured, investor focus has shifted to Charter.
- Charter's plan calls for virtual CCAP and DAA deployment in 2024, which the analyst saw as the actual prize that Harmonic has yet to secure. However, in his view, it remains the clear front-runner.
- Price Action: HLIT shares traded lower by 6.90% at $13.22 on the last check Tuesday.
- 李約瑟分析師Ryan Koontz重申和聲公司(納斯達克：HLIT)與買入，並維持19美元的目標價。
- HLIT報告了強勁的第四季度22。收入和非GAAP每股收益分別為1.643億美元和0.17美元，超出了普遍預期。
- 康卡斯特納斯達克(Sequoia Capital：CMCSA)在本季度的客戶集中度為48%，肯定會讓投資者擔心，其他第一層CableOS軟體部署的擴展速度沒有那麼快。
- 賬面/賬單比上一季度的1.1有所下降，而總積壓和遞延收入為4.571億美元(+4%Y/Y-7%Q/Q)，反映了疫情後客戶訂購模式的正常化。
- 第一季度和第二季度的指導被描述為“保守的”，並假設新的有線電視客戶贏得的貢獻很小，並反映了視頻從許可證到訂閱收入的過渡。
- 該分析師對F23財年的預期下降了2%/-0.09美元，並將F24財年的收入/每股收益數位引入到8.73億美元/1.00美元。
- 儘管C23的前景比預期的要疲軟，但管理層表現出一種悄悄而自信的語氣，分析師認為這表明了對從現有CableOS勝利中獲得勝利的信心，C23指導的一個有意義的上行空間，以及在C23上取得成功的巨大可能性查特通信公司(納斯達克：中國高鐵)。
- 雷蒙德·詹姆斯分析師西蒙·利奧波德(Simon Leopold)保持了優異的表現，並將目標價從18美元下調至17美元。
- 分析師關於Harmonic在寬帶網路發展中的領先地位的論文仍然完好無損，但那些尋求即時滿足的人可能會失望。
- 主要的負面因素來自Harmonic的視頻部分更顯著的侵蝕，但管理層保持並表達了對其2025年前景的信心。
- 在獲得康卡斯特的支持後，投資者的注意力已轉向查特。
- 查特的計劃要求在2024年部署虛擬CCAP和DAA，這位分析師認為這是Harmonic尚未獲得的實際戰利品。然而，在他看來，它仍然是明顯的領跑者。
- 價格行動：在週二的最後一次檢查中，Hlitt的股價下跌了6.90%，至13.22美元。