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JPMorgan Strategists Now See Lower Odds of Recession, But Economists Disagree
JPMorgan Strategists Now See Lower Odds of Recession, But Economists Disagree
As the markets launch into 2023 with an upward moment, a new analysis from Wall Street firm JPMorgan offers a bullish outlook for the year, concluding that a soft landing could be the most likely outcome.
What Happened: Seven of nine asset classes ranging from high-grade bonds to European stocks now show less than a 50% chance of a recession, JPMorgan's trading model shows, according to Bloomberg.
This marks a significant improvement from October 2022, when the firm said a recession was almost a done deal.
That said, global money managers were of the view the economy is not out of the woods yet, the report said, adding that the S&P 500 Index is still assigning a 73% probability of a recession materializing. On a positive note, the recession odds baked in by the stock market have improved from 98% in 2022.
The asset classes that have now discounted a less than 50% chance of a recession are:
U.S. high-grade credit
U.S. high-yield credit
Five-year treasuries
European stock market index
European Union high-grade credit
European Union high-yield credit
Five-year European Union government bonds
Apart from the S&P 500, only base metals are reflecting recession odds over 50%.
Most asset classes have been steadily pricing out recession risks helped by China reopening, the collapse of gas prices in Europe and larger than expected inflation downshifting in the US," JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reportedly said.
Opinions Diverge: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, meanwhile, said investors are underpricing the potential pressure on stocks stemming from the growth slowdown in the months ahead, Bloomberg said.
The consensus forecast of economists has put the odds of a recession at 65%, up from 50% in October, the report added. It also said the Treasury yield inversion continues to flash a recession warning, noting that the yield on the three-month bills is more than that of the 10-year Treasury note.
The recent bounce in the market reflects investor expectations that the central banks will be able to bring about a soft landing, the report added.
As the markets launch into 2023 with an upward moment, a new analysis from Wall Street firm JPMorgan offers a bullish outlook for the year, concluding that a soft landing could be the most likely outcome.
隨著市場推出到 2023 年,華爾街公司摩根大通公司的一項新分析提供了今年的看漲前景,結論是軟著陸可能是最有可能的結果。
What Happened: Seven of nine asset classes ranging from high-grade bonds to European stocks now show less than a 50% chance of a recession, JPMorgan's trading model shows, according to Bloomberg.
發生了什麼事: 據彭博社報導,摩根大通的交易模式顯示,從高檔債券到歐洲股票的九種資產類別中,有七種現在出現衰退的機會不到 50%。
This marks a significant improvement from October 2022, when the firm said a recession was almost a done deal.
從 2022 年 10 月開始,這標誌著顯著改善,當時該公司表示經濟衰退幾乎是一項完成的交易。
That said, global money managers were of the view the economy is not out of the woods yet, the report said, adding that the S&P 500 Index is still assigning a 73% probability of a recession materializing. On a positive note, the recession odds baked in by the stock market have improved from 98% in 2022.
也就是說,全球資金經理認為經濟還沒有走出樹林,報告稱,並補充說,標普 500 指數仍然指定了經濟實現經濟衰退的 73% 概率。從積極的角度來看,股市出現的經濟衰退賠率已從 2022 年的 98% 提高。
The asset classes that have now discounted a less than 50% chance of a recession are:
現在折扣不到 50% 的經濟衰退機會的資產類別是:
U.S. high-grade credit
U.S. high-yield credit
Five-year treasuries
European stock market index
European Union high-grade credit
European Union high-yield credit
Five-year European Union government bonds
美國高級信貸
美國高收益信貸
五年國庫
歐洲股市指數
歐盟高級信貸
歐盟高收益信貸
歐盟五年期政府債券
Apart from the S&P 500, only base metals are reflecting recession odds over 50%.
除了標普 500 指數外,只有基礎金屬反映出經濟衰退機率超過 50%。
Most asset classes have been steadily pricing out recession risks helped by China reopening, the collapse of gas prices in Europe and larger than expected inflation downshifting in the US," JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reportedly said.
由於中國重新開放,歐洲天然氣價格崩潰,以及美國通脹下滑的幫助下降,大多數資產類別都穩步定價出現衰退風險。」摩根大通策略師 尼古拉斯·帕尼吉尔佐格洛 據報導說。
Opinions Diverge: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, meanwhile, said investors are underpricing the potential pressure on stocks stemming from the growth slowdown in the months ahead, Bloomberg said.
意見分歧: 摩根大通的馬爾科·科拉諾維奇, 與此同時,彭博社表示,投資者正在低估由於未來幾個月增長放緩引起的股票潛在壓力。
The consensus forecast of economists has put the odds of a recession at 65%, up from 50% in October, the report added. It also said the Treasury yield inversion continues to flash a recession warning, noting that the yield on the three-month bills is more than that of the 10-year Treasury note.
報告補充說,經濟學家的共識預測使經濟衰退的可能性從 10 月份的 50% 上升為 65%。它還表示,美國國債收益率反轉繼續閃現經濟衰退警告,並指出三個月期票據的收益率高於 10 年期國庫債券的收益率。
The recent bounce in the market reflects investor expectations that the central banks will be able to bring about a soft landing, the report added.
報告補充說,近期市場的反彈反映了投資者對中央銀行將能夠帶來軟著陸的預期。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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