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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ:MLCO)

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ:MLCO)

計算新濠博亞娛樂有限公司 (NASDAQ: MLCO) 的內在價值
Simply Wall St ·  2023/01/20 08:20

How far off is Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ:MLCO) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

新濠國際度假村娛樂有限公司(納斯達克股票代碼:MLCO)距離其內在價值還有多遠?使用最新的財務數據,我們將通過預測未來的現金流,然後將其貼現到今天的價值,來看看股票的定價是否公平。在這種情況下,我們將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。不要被行話嚇跑了,它背後的數學實際上是相當簡單的。

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

我們要提醒的是,對一家公司進行估值的方法有很多種,與貼現現金流一樣,每種方法在某些情況下都有優缺點。對於那些熱衷於學習股票分析的人來説,這裏的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能會讓你感興趣。

Check out our latest analysis for Melco Resorts & Entertainment

查看我們對Melco Resorts&Entertainment的最新分析

Is Melco Resorts & Entertainment Fairly Valued?

新濠國際度假村及娛樂公司的價值是否公平?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年為企業帶來的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,所以這些未來現金流的總和就會貼現到今天的價值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

10年自由現金流(FCF)估計

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$258.7m US$1.08b US$1.02b US$926.5m US$743.5m US$687.4m US$655.2m US$637.6m US$629.4m US$627.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ -7.54% Est @ -4.69% Est @ -2.69% Est @ -1.29% Est @ -0.31%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 13% US$228 US$836 US$699 US$559 US$395 US$322 US$270 US$232 US$202 US$177
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
槓桿式FCF(百萬美元) 2.587億美元 10.8億美元 10.2億美元 9.265億美元 7.435億美元 6.874億美元 6.552億美元 6.376億美元 6.294億美元 6.275億美元
增長率預估來源 分析師x3 分析師x2 分析師x2 分析師x2 分析師x2 Est@-7.54% Est@-4.69% Est@-2.69% Est@-1.29% Est@-0.31%
現值(美元,百萬)折現@13% 228美元 836美元 699美元 559美元 395美元 322美元 270美元 232美元 202美元 177美元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.9b

(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=39億美元

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13%.

我們現在需要計算終端價值,它説明瞭這十年之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率2.0%的5年平均水平。我們以13%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$627m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (13%– 2.0%) = US$5.6b

終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=6.27億美元×(1+2.0%)?(13%-2.0%)=56億美元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$5.6b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= US$1.6b

終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=56億美元?(1+13%)10=16億美元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$5.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$13.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股權價值,在本例中為55億美元。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。相對於目前13.0美元的股價,該公司在撰寫本文時似乎接近公允價值。不過,請記住,這只是一個大致的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣--垃圾輸入,垃圾輸出。

dcf
NasdaqGS:MLCO Discounted Cash Flow January 20th 2023
納斯達克:MLCO貼現現金流2023年1月20日

Important Assumptions

重要假設

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Melco Resorts & Entertainment as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.678. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

我們要指出,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。您不必同意這些輸入,我建議您自己重新計算並使用它們。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將新濠國際視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是計入債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了13%,這是基於槓桿率為1.678的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。

SWOT Analysis for Melco Resorts & Entertainment

新濠國際度假村及娛樂項目的SWOT分析

Strength
強度
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
  • 盈利很好地彌補了債務。
  • Balance sheet summary for MLCO.
  • MLCO的資產負債表摘要。
Weakness
軟肋
  • Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
  • 基於市盈率和估計公允價值的昂貴。
Opportunity
機會
  • Forecast to reduce losses next year.
  • 預計明年將減少虧損。
Threat
威脅
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • 運營現金流無法很好地覆蓋債務。
  • Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
  • 總負債超過總資產,這增加了財務困境的風險。
  • Is MLCO well equipped to handle threats?
  • MLCO是否做好了應對威脅的準備?

Next Steps:

接下來的步驟:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Melco Resorts & Entertainment, we've compiled three fundamental elements you should assess:

就構建你的投資論點而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它只是你需要為一家公司評估的眾多因素之一。用貼現現金流模型不可能獲得萬無一失的估值。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果終端價值增長率稍有調整,可能會極大地改變整體結果。對於新濠國際度假村和娛樂公司,我們列出了你應該評估的三個基本要素:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 2 warning signs for Melco Resorts & Entertainment we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does MLCO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 風險:我們認為您應該評估新濠國際度假村及娛樂公司的2個警告標誌在投資這家公司之前,我們已經做了標記。
  2. 未來收益:與同行和更廣泛的市場相比,MLCO的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
  3. 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每隻美國股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的內在價值,只需搜索此處。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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