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We Think Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd (SZSE:002453) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd (SZSE:002453) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認為偉大中軟科技股份有限公司(深圳證券交易所股份代號:002453)債務承擔一些風險
Simply Wall St ·  2023/01/09 19:20

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Great Chinasoft Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002453) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾説過一句名言:波動性遠非風險的代名詞。因此,當你評估一家公司的風險有多大時,聰明的投資者似乎知道債務--通常涉及破產--是一個非常重要的因素。我們注意到大華軟科技有限公司。(SZSE:002453)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務造成了多大的風險?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什麼時候債務是個問題?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

一般來説,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成為一個真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是用自己的現金流。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人的債務,它可能會破產。然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東的股份,才能控制債務。當然,債務的好處是,它往往代表着廉價資本,特別是當它用能夠以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。

Check out our latest analysis for Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd

查看我們對Great ChinaSoft科技有限公司的最新分析

What Is Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's Net Debt?

中軟科技有限公司的淨債務是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2022 Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd had debt of CN¥836.4m, up from CN¥710.4m in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥555.9m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥280.6m.

下面的圖片,你可以點擊查看更多細節,顯示了截至2022年9月,中軟科技有限公司的債務為8.364億加元,高於一年內的7.104億加元。另一方面,它擁有5.559億加元的現金,導致淨債務約為2.806億加元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002453 Debt to Equity History January 10th 2023
深交所:002453債轉股歷史2023年1月10日

How Strong Is Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's Balance Sheet?

大華軟科技有限公司的資產負債表有多強?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd had liabilities of CN¥1.31b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥24.2m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥555.9m and CN¥716.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥59.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根據最新報告的資產負債表,大中軟科技有限公司有13.1億加元的負債在12個月內到期,2420萬加元的負債在12個月後到期。另一方面,它有5.559億加元的現金和7.163億加元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和近期應收賬款加起來還要多5900萬元。

This state of affairs indicates that Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's balance sheet looks quite solid, as its total liabilities are just about equal to its liquid assets. So while it's hard to imagine that the CN¥10.3b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet.

這種情況表明,大中軟科技有限公司的資產負債表看起來相當穩健,其總負債與流動資產大致相同。因此,儘管很難想象這家103億元人民幣的公司正在為現金而苦苦掙扎,但我們仍然認為值得監控其資產負債表。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

為了評估一家公司的債務相對於它的收益,我們計算它的淨債務除以它的利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆蓋)。這樣,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量,也考慮了為其支付的利率。

Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's net debt is 3.2 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. However, its interest coverage of 1k is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Shareholders should be aware that Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's EBIT was down 90% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

偉大的中軟科技有限公司的淨債務是其EBITDA的3.2倍,這是一個相當可觀但仍然合理的槓桿率。然而,其1k的利息覆蓋率非常高,這表明債務的利息支出目前相當低。股東們應該知道,大中軟科技有限公司的息税前利潤去年下降了90%。如果這種盈利趨勢持續下去,那麼償還債務就像把貓趕上過山車一樣容易。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但你不能完全孤立地看待債務,因為偉大的中軟科技有限公司需要盈利來償還債務。因此,如果你熱衷於瞭解更多關於它的收益,可能值得查看一下它的長期收益趨勢圖。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last two years, Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

但我們的最後考慮也很重要,因為一家公司不能用賬面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,合乎邏輯的一步是看看息税前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去的兩年裏,大中軟科技有限公司燒掉了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況會在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着它使用債務的風險更大。

Our View

我們的觀點

Neither Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's ability to grow its EBIT nor its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd .

無論是中軟科技有限公司提高息税前利潤的能力,還是將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流的能力,都沒有讓我們對其承擔更多債務的能力產生信心。但好消息是,它似乎能夠輕鬆地用息税前利潤來彌補利息支出。綜合上述因素,我們確實認為大中軟科技有限公司的債務對業務構成了一些風險。因此,儘管槓桿率確實提高了股本回報率,但我們並不真的希望看到它從現在開始增加。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。為此,您應該意識到1個警告標誌我們發現了偉大的中軟科技有限公司。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果你對一家增長迅速、資產負債表堅如磐石的公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金成長型股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

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