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Tesla Analyst Slashes Price Target By Over 12% To Reflect Macro Headwinds

Tesla Analyst Slashes Price Target By Over 12% To Reflect Macro Headwinds

特斯拉分析師將目標價下調逾12%以反映宏觀逆風
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2023/01/05 13:57
  • Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh maintained Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) with a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $285 to $250.
  • TSLA reported December quarter deliveries of 405.3k vehicles (below consensus 418.0k) though mostly expected with the week-long Shanghai shutdown.
  • For the full-year 2022, total deliveries were 1.31M units, up 40% Y/Y, while overall production was up ~47% Y/Y, in line with previous TSLA commentary.
  • TSLA noted an increase in cars in transport exiting the December quarter.
  • However, Rakesh believes concerns remain around a weakening consumer driven by rising interest rates and broader macro concerns, which could continue to be a 1H23E headwind.
  • The analyst also noted a critical one-week shutdown at the Shanghai factory (45%+ of TSLA annual capacity)
  • Rakesh believes the December quarter top line could see challenges, with price cuts in both China (~9-10%) starting in October and the U.S., with ~$7,500 discounts on the Model 3/Y in the month of December.
  • However, introducing the Inflation Reduction Act with certain Model 3/Y's now qualifying for the $7,500 credit could create a significant tailwind, the analyst noted.
  • In addition, TSLA is beginning to ramp the Semi, with deliveries starting in December, though Rakesh believes volumes are currently low, while the Cybertruck is likely for a mid-2023 production start.
  • Competition in China, the world's largest BEV market, is increasing as BYD Co, Ltd (OTC: BYDDY) and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (OTC: GELYF) ramp up new EVs at an attractive price point.
  • In the U.S., new EV models like the Silverado EV and the continued popularity of the Ioniq 5 EV could also add to competition concerns.
  • Overall, 2022 EVs were up 65% Y/Y (vs. broader LVP, up ~6% Y/Y).
  • Price Action: TSLA shares traded lower by 2.71% at $110.56 on the last check Thursday.
  • 瑞穗分析師Vijay Rakesh堅持認為特斯拉公司(納斯達克代碼:TSLA)，評級為買入，但將目標價從285美元下調至250美元。
  • 特斯拉報告稱，去年第四季度交付量為405.3萬輛(低於市場普遍預期的418.0k輛)，不過，隨著上海長達一週的停工，這基本上是意料之中的事情。
  • 2022年全年，總交貨量為131萬部，同比增長40%，整體產量同比增長約47%，與之前的特斯拉評論一致。
  • 特斯拉指出，離開12月這個季度的汽車運輸量有所增加。
  • 然而，Rakesh認為，人們仍然擔心利率上升和更廣泛的宏觀擔憂推動的消費者疲軟，這可能繼續成為1H23E的逆風。
  • 這位分析師還指出，特斯拉上海工廠嚴重停工一週(相當於年產能的45%以上)。
  • 拉凱什認為，12月份這個季度的營收可能會面臨挑戰，中國從10月份開始降價(~9%-10%)，美國市場也是如此，12月份Model 3/Y的折扣約為7,500美元。
  • 然而，這位分析師指出，引入通脹降低法案，同時某些Model 3/Y現在有資格獲得7,500美元的信貸，可能會產生顯著的順風效應。
  • 此外，特斯拉正開始加大這款車的研發力度，將於12月開始交付，儘管拉凱什認為目前銷量較低，而CyberTruck可能會在2023年年中開始投產。
  • 在全球最大的啤酒市場中國，競爭正在加劇，因為比亞迪股份有限公司(場外交易：BYDDY)和吉利汽車控股有限公司(場外交易代碼：GELYF)以具有吸引力的價位推出新的電動汽車。
  • 在美國，Silverado EV等新款電動汽車以及Ioniq 5 EV的持續流行也可能加劇對競爭的擔憂。
  • 總體而言，2022輛電動汽車同比增長65%(與範圍更廣的LVP相比，同比增長約6%)。
  • 價格行動：特斯拉股價週四尾盤下跌2.71%，至110.56美元。
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