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Are Investors Undervaluing Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) By 32%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) By 32%?
Does the December share price for Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Autohome
The Model
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥2.32b | CN¥2.54b | CN¥2.70b | CN¥2.84b | CN¥2.96b | CN¥3.06b | CN¥3.16b | CN¥3.24b | CN¥3.32b | CN¥3.40b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x4 | Est @ 6.42% | Est @ 5.09% | Est @ 4.15% | Est @ 3.50% | Est @ 3.05% | Est @ 2.73% | Est @ 2.50% | Est @ 2.35% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6% | CN¥2.1k | CN¥2.2k | CN¥2.1k | CN¥2.0k | CN¥2.0k | CN¥1.9k | CN¥1.8k | CN¥1.7k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.5k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥19b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥3.4b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.6%– 2.0%) = CN¥52b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥52b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= CN¥23b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥42b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$32.4, the company appears quite good value at a 32% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NYSE:ATHM Discounted Cash Flow December 22nd 2022The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Autohome as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.026. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Autohome
- Currently debt free.
- Balance sheet summary for ATHM.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Interactive Media and Services market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for ATHM?
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Autohome, there are three further aspects you should further research:
- Risks: Be aware that Autohome is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
- Future Earnings: How does ATHM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
汽車之家(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:ATHM)12月份的股價反映了它的真實價值嗎?今天,我們將通過獲取預期的未來現金流並將其貼現到其現值來估計股票的內在價值。在這種情況下,我們將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。像這樣的模型可能看起來超出了外行的理解,但它們很容易被效仿。
對公司的估值可以有很多種方式,因此我們要指出,貼現現金流並不適用於每一種情況。如果你想了解更多關於貼現現金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中詳細閲讀這種計算背後的原理。
查看我們對汽車之家的最新分析
模型
我們將使用兩階段貼現現金流模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是一個較高的成長期,接近終值,在第二個“穩定增長”階段捕捉到。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來一美元的價值低於現在的一美元,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行貼現,以得出現值估計:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | CN元23.2億元 | CN元25.4億元 | CN人民幣27.億元 | 淨額28.4億元 | 淨額29.6億元 | CN元30.6億元 | CN元31.6億元 | CN元32.4億元 | 淨額33.2億元 | CN元34億元 |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師X5 | 分析師x4 | Est@6.42% | Est@5.09% | Est@4.15% | Est@3.50% | Est@3.05% | Est@2.73% | Est@2.50% | Est@2.35% |
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現8.6% | CN元2.1K | CN元2.2K元 | CN元2.1K | CN元2.0K | CN元2.0K | CN元1.9萬元 | CN元1.8K元 | CN元1.7K | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.5K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元19億元
在計算了最初10年內未來現金流的現值後,我們需要計算終止值,它考慮了第一階段之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率2.0%的5年平均水平。我們以8.6%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元3.4b×(1+2.0%)?(8.6%-2.0%)=CN元52b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元520b?(1+8.6%)10=CN元230億元
那麼,總價值或權益價值就是未來現金流的現值之和,在這種情況下,現金流是42b元人民幣。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。相對於目前32.4美元的股價,該公司的價值似乎相當不錯,較目前的股價有32%的折讓。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。
紐約證券交易所:ATHM貼現現金流2022年12月22日假設
我們要指出,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,你可以自己試一試計算,並玩弄一下假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將汽車之家視為潛在股東,我們使用股權成本作為貼現率,而不是考慮債務的資本成本(加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了8.6%,這是基於槓桿率為1.026的測試值。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
汽車之家的SWOT分析
- 目前沒有債務。
- ATHM的資產負債表摘要。
- 在過去的一年裏,公司的收益有所下降。
- 與互動媒體和服務市場上前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
- 預計未來三年的年收入將會增長。
- 交易價格比我們估計的公允價值低20%以上。
- 據預測,該公司的年收入增速將低於美國市場。
- 分析師還對ATHM做出了什麼預測?
展望未來:
就構建你的投資論文而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價低於內在價值嗎?對於汽車之家,還有三個方面需要進一步研究:
- 風險:請注意,汽車之家正在播放在我們的投資分析中出現1個警告信號,你應該知道關於……
- 未來收益:ATHM的增長率與其同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每隻美國股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的內在價值,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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