China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the SHSE. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let's examine China Tourism Group Duty Free's valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there's still a bargain opportunity.

Check out our latest analysis for China Tourism Group Duty Free

What Is China Tourism Group Duty Free Worth?

According to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. In this instance, I've used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock's cash flows. I find that China Tourism Group Duty Free's ratio of 76.61x is above its peer average of 27.56x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Specialty Retail industry. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that China Tourism Group Duty Free's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will China Tourism Group Duty Free generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. China Tourism Group Duty Free's earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in 601888's positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe 601888 should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on 601888 for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for 601888, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with China Tourism Group Duty Free (including 1 which is a bit concerning).

If you are no longer interested in China Tourism Group Duty Free, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.