CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX:C38U) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 19% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
On a more encouraging note the company has added S$1.2b to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
See our latest analysis for CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 1.0% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. But it's possible a look at other metrics will be enlightening.
We note that the dividend has declined - a likely contributor to the share price drop. In contrast it does not seem particularly likely that the revenue levels are a concern for investors.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SGX:C38U Earnings and Revenue Growth November 14th 2022
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, it has a TSR of -7.7% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust shareholders are down 1.2% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 0.9%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 5% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those shouldn't be ignored...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
凱德置地綜合商業信託基金(SGX:C38U)股東應該很高興看到股價在上個月上漲了11%。但這並不能改變過去三年回報不那麼令人滿意的事實。事實上,該公司股價在過去三年裏下跌了19%,遠遠低於市場回報。
更令人鼓舞的是,僅在過去的7天裏,該公司的市值就增加了12億新元,所以讓我們看看我們是否能確定是什麼導致了股東三年來的虧損。
查看我們對凱德置地綜合商業信託的最新分析
用巴菲特的話説,“船隻將在世界各地航行,但平坦的地球協會將蓬勃發展。市場上的價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差異……”考察市場情緒如何隨時間變化的一種方法是觀察一家公司的股價和每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。
不幸的是,在股價下跌的三年裏,凱德置地綜合商業信託公司的每股收益(EPS)實際上以每年1.0%的速度增長。考慮到股價的反應,人們可能會懷疑,每股收益不是這段時間內業務表現的良好指南(可能是因為一次性的虧損或收益)。或者,增長預期在過去可能是不合理的。
在考慮了這些數字後,我們假設市場對三年前的每股收益增長有更高的預期。但看看其他指標可能會有所啟發。
我們注意到股息已經下降--這可能是導致股價下跌的原因之一。相比之下,營收水平似乎不太可能成為投資者的擔憂。
下圖顯示了收益和收入隨時間的變化情況(如果您點擊該圖,您可以看到更多詳細信息)。
新交所:C38U收益和收入增長2022年11月14日
凱德置地綜合商業信託是一隻著名的股票,有大量的分析師報道,這表明對未來增長的一些可見性。你可以看到分析師對凱德置地綜合商業信託的預測互動未來利潤預估圖表。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。公平地説,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。以凱德置地綜合商業信託為例,其最近3年的總資產收益率為-7.7%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
不同的視角
我們遺憾地報告,凱德置地綜合商業信託股東今年以來下降了1.2%(即使包括股息)。不幸的是,這比大盤0.9%的跌幅還要糟糕。然而,這可能只是因為股價受到了更廣泛的市場緊張情緒的影響。也許有必要關注基本面,以防出現良機。好的一面是,長期股東已經賺到了錢,過去五年的年回報率為5%。最近的拋售可能是一個機會,因此可能值得查看基本面數據,以尋找長期增長趨勢的跡象。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價可能產生的不同影響,但還有其他更重要的因素。即便如此,請注意凱德置地綜合商業信託基金正在顯示我們的投資分析中的5個警告信號,其中兩個不應該被忽視...
當然了,如果你把目光投向別處,你可能會發現這是一筆很棒的投資。所以讓我們來看看這個免費我們預計收益將會增長的公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在SG交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。