Far From Oversold, SoFi Technologies Inc Could Keep Moving Lower
Far From Oversold, SoFi Technologies Inc Could Keep Moving Lower
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To investors bullish on SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock, the recent performance of its shares may seem irrational. In their view, the market is failing to factor in the potential tailwind stemming from the lifting of the student loan moratorium starting Jan. 1, 2023.
給看好的投資者索菲科技(納斯達克股票代碼：SO菲)，其股票最近的表現可能看起來不理性。在他們看來，市場未能考慮到2023年1月1日開始取消學生貸款禁令可能帶來的順風。
After this happens, this fintech firm will supposedly benefit from a big jump in demand for its student lending refinancing products. In turn, enabling SoFi to deliver results ahead of expectations, which will spark a recovery for its hard-hit shares.
在這種情況發生後，金融科技的這家公司應該會受益於對其學生貸款再融資產品需求的大幅增長。反過來，使SoFi能夠提供超出預期的業績，這將刺激其遭受重創的股票出現反彈。
In my view, the market is not ignorant of this factor. It's just that negative factors like high inflation, rising interest rates and growing recession risk far outweigh it.
在我看來，市場並不是對這一因素一無所知。只是高通脹、利率上升和日益嚴重的衰退風險等負面因素遠遠超過了這一點。
If anything, buzz about this student loan catalyst is for now helping to soften the blow. This points to big downside ahead once the buzz surrounding this would-be catalyst starts to dissipate in a few months.
如果説有什麼不同的話，那就是關於這一助學貸款催化劑的傳言目前有助於減輕打擊。這表明，一旦圍繞這一潛在催化劑的傳言在幾個月後開始消散，未來將出現巨大的下行空間。
SOFI Stock Is Seriously Mispriced
索菲股票嚴重定價錯誤
Last week, SoFi Technologies hit a new all-time low. To fans of this stock, this may appear to be a can't-miss buying opportunity. In their view, shares have become the victim of severe market mispricing.
上週，SoFi Technologies創下歷史新低。對於這隻股票的粉絲們來説，這似乎是一個不容錯過的預期買入機會。在他們看來，股票已成為嚴重市場錯誤定價的受害者。
I agree that SOFI stock is mispriced, but not in the same way the bulls see it. Instead of being undervalued, despite the student loan catalyst, shares are instead overvalued. The hope and hype among some investors about this factor is helping to partially counter the negative factors driving most investors to bid the stock lower.
我同意索菲的股票定價錯誤，但與看漲人士的看法不同。儘管存在助學貸款的催化劑，但股價非但沒有被低估，反而被高估了。一些投資者對這一因素的希望和炒作有助於在一定程度上抵消推動大多數投資者降低股價的負面因素。
Bullish investors are overestimating the impact of SoFi's student loan catalyst. Analyst estimates, which call for nearly 40% revenue growth next year, already take into account the fact the company's student loan refinancing business is just about to exit its current state of near-dormancy.
看漲的投資者高估了SoFi助學貸款催化劑的影響。分析師預計，該公司明年的營收將增長近40%，這已經考慮到該公司的助學貸款再融資業務即將擺脱當前的近乎休眠狀態。
It may prove difficult for SoFi to deliver results that beat sell-side forecasts. For instance, more recent borrowers may have little incentive to refinance their loans. From July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, both subsidized and unsubsidized student loans were issued at a fixed interest rate of just 2.75%, well below the rates the company is currently quoting.
事實可能會證明，SoFi很難提供超出賣方預測的業績。例如，較新的借款人可能沒有什麼動力為他們的貸款進行再融資。從2020年7月1日到2021年6月30日，補貼和非補貼學生貸款的固定利率僅為2.75%，遠低於該公司目前的報價利率。
More Declines Likely as Headwinds Persist
逆風持續，可能會出現更多下跌
SOFI stock and perceived student loan tailwind benefits are a matter of "when" not "if. Unfortunately, come next year when repayments are back in full swing, they are unlikely to result in better-than-expected quarterly results for SoFi Technologies.
SOFI的股票和預期的助學貸款順風效益是一個“何時”而不是“是否”的問題。不幸的是，明年當還款全面展開時，它們不太可能為SoFi Technologies帶來好於預期的季度業績。
As this happens, you can expect excitement about the student loan catalyst to disappear. Bad news indeed, as the above-mentioned headwinds applying pressure to the stock carry on, having a negative impact on both SoFi's operating performance, as well as its stock price.
隨着這種情況的發生，人們對助學貸款催化劑的興奮情緒將會消失。事實上，壞消息是，隨着上述對該股施加壓力的逆風繼續下去，對SoFi的運營業績和股價都產生了負面影響。
With the Federal Reserve expected to continue raising interest rates to fight inflation, a 2023 recession appears to be a near possibility. This could affect SoFi's results in the coming year and extend its timeline to profitability.
由於預計美聯儲將繼續提高利率以對抗通脹，2023年出現經濟衰退的可能性似乎很小。這可能會影響SoFi來年的業績，並將其時間表延長至盈利。
If that's not bad enough, rising rates could hurt SOFI shares in another way. As I've argued before, higher rates mean a lower present valuation for this growth stock, valued primarily on future results.
如果這還不夠糟糕的話，利率上升可能會以另一種方式損害索菲的股價。正如我以前説過的，較高的利率意味着這種成長型股票目前的估值較低，主要是根據未來的業績進行估值。
Admittedly, downside risk from here may be minimal. This stock currently has a tangible book value of $3.34 per share. That said, keep in mind that along with moderate downside, there's minimal upside potential.
誠然，目前的下行風險可能微乎其微。該股目前的有形賬面價值為每股3.34美元。話雖如此，請記住，除了温和的下跌外，上漲的可能性也很小。
The Verdict on SOFI Stock
對索菲股票的判決
Besides the risk that SOFI has a way to go before bottoming out, is the risk that this former market darling, down nearly 80% from its all-time high, will fail to make much of a comeback even after today's macro uncertainties pass.
除了索菲在觸底之前還有一段路要走的風險，還有一個風險是，這個曾經的市場寵兒，從歷史高點下跌了近80%，即使在今天的宏觀不確定性過去後，也無法捲土重來。
Take a look at long-term earnings forecasts, which call for earnings per share (or EPS) of 40 cents by 2025. Mature fintech stocks trade for 20 to 25 times earnings. Best case scenario, SOFI could return to the high single-digits over the course of several years. A return to anywhere near its past all-time high (nearly $25 per share) does not appear likely.
看看長期收益預測，預計到2025年每股收益(EPS)為40美分。成熟的金融科技股票的市盈率為20至25倍。最好的情況是，SOFI可能會在幾年內回到個位數的高位。看起來不太可能回到過去的歷史高點(每股近25美元)。
Taking everything into account, from the possibility student loan-related buzz fades, to the risk headwinds persist, and that a recovery happens slowly, SOFI stock remains a risky play worth skipping out on.
考慮到一切因素，從與助學貸款相關的傳言可能消退，到風險逆風持續，以及復甦緩慢，索菲的股票仍然是一個值得跳過的高風險投資。
SOFI stock earns a D rating in Portfolio Grader.
索菲股票獲得D評級投資組合評分器.
On the date of publication, neither Louis Navellier nor the InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article held (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
在文章發表之日，Louis Navellier和主要負責本文的InvestorPlace Research工作人員都沒有(直接或間接)持有本文提到的證券的任何頭寸。
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The post Far from Oversold, SoFi Technologies Inc Could Keep Moving Lower appeared first on InvestorPlace.
這篇帖子遠非超賣，SoFi Technologies Inc.可以繼續向下移動，最先出現在InvestorPlace上。