For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE:QSR) shareholders, since the share price is down 26% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 27%. Even worse, it's down 10% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 8.6% in the same time.
Since Restaurant Brands International has shed US$676m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for Restaurant Brands International
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Although the share price is down over three years, Restaurant Brands International actually managed to grow EPS by 5.5% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. Restaurant Brands International has maintained its top line over three years, so we doubt that has shareholders worried. So it might be worth looking at how revenue growth over time, in greater detail.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
NYSE:QSR Earnings and Revenue Growth October 3rd 2022
Restaurant Brands International is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Restaurant Brands International, it has a TSR of -17% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Restaurant Brands International shares lost 11% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 22%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 0.8% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Restaurant Brands International (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對於許多投資者來説,選股的主要着眼點是產生高於整體市場的回報。但如果你試着選股,你的風險回報就會低於市場。不幸的是,從長遠來看,情況就是這樣餐飲品牌國際公司。(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:QSR)股東,因為股價在過去三年裏下跌了26%,遠遠低於約27%的市場回報率。更糟糕的是,它在大約一個月的時間裏下跌了10%,這一點都不好玩。但這可能與糟糕的市場狀況有關--同期股市下跌了8.6%。
由於餐飲品牌國際在過去7天裏市值縮水6.76億美元,讓我們看看長期下跌是否由企業的經濟狀況推動。
查看我們對國際餐飲品牌的最新分析
不可否認,市場有時是有效的,但價格並不總是反映潛在的商業表現。一種不完美但簡單的方法來考慮市場對一家公司的看法是如何改變的,那就是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
儘管股價在三年多的時間裏下跌,但在這段時間裏,餐飲品牌國際實際上實現了每股收益5.5%的增長。考慮到股價的反應,人們可能會懷疑,每股收益不是這段時間內業務表現的良好指南(可能是因為一次性的虧損或收益)。或者,該公司過去被過度炒作,因此其增長令人失望。
值得看看其他指標,因為每股收益的增長似乎與下跌的股價不匹配。
我們注意到,股息似乎足夠健康,所以這可能無法解釋股價下跌的原因。餐飲品牌國際在三年多的時間裏一直保持着營收,因此我們懷疑這是否讓股東感到擔憂。因此,可能值得更詳細地研究收入是如何隨着時間的推移而增長的。
該公司的收入和收益(隨着時間的推移)如下圖所示(點擊查看具體數字)。
紐約證券交易所:QSR收益和收入增長2022年10月3日
餐飲品牌國際是一隻知名的股票,有大量的分析師報道,這表明未來的增長有一定的可見性。鑑於我們有相當多的分析師預測,可能很值得查看以下內容免費描繪共識估計的圖表。
那股息呢?
在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。TSR包括任何剝離或貼現融資的價值,以及任何股息,基於股息再投資的假設。公平地説,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。就餐飲品牌國際而言,它在過去3年的TSR為-17%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異是沒有好處的!
不同的視角
雖然看到Restaurant Brands International的股價全年下跌11%當然令人失望,但這並沒有股市下跌22%那麼糟糕。不幸的是,去年的表現可能預示着尚未解決的挑戰,因為它比過去五年0.8%的年化損失還要糟糕。雖然一些投資者擅長買入那些陷入困境(但估值仍然被低估)的公司,但不要忘記巴菲特曾説過,扭虧為盈的情況很少出現轉機。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價可能產生的不同影響,但還有其他更重要的因素。例如,我們發現國際餐飲品牌的3個警告標誌(1讓我們有點不舒服!)在這裏投資之前你應該意識到這一點。
當然了,如果你把目光投向別處,你可能會發現這是一筆很棒的投資。所以讓我們來看看這個免費我們預計收益將會增長的公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。