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Earnings Are Growing at Guangzhou Automobile Group (HKG:2238) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects
Earnings Are Growing at Guangzhou Automobile Group (HKG:2238) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects
We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. For example, after five long years the Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:2238) share price is a whole 60% lower. That's not a lot of fun for true believers. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 25% in the last 90 days. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 19% in the same timeframe.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
View our latest analysis for Guangzhou Automobile Group
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
While the share price declined over five years, Guangzhou Automobile Group actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 1.2% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Having said that, we might get a better idea of what's going on with the stock by looking at other metrics.
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SEHK:2238 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 3rd 2022It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Guangzhou Automobile Group
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Guangzhou Automobile Group's TSR for the last 5 years was -51%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Guangzhou Automobile Group shares lost 16% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 26%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Guangzhou Automobile Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
But note: Guangzhou Automobile Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
我們認為,明智的長期投資是一條可行的道路。但在此過程中,一些股票的表現將很糟糕。例如,在漫長的五年之後,廣汽集團股份有限公司。(HKG:2238)股價整體下跌60%。對於真正的信徒來説,這並不是什麼有趣的事情。股東們最近經歷了更艱難的時期,股價在過去90天裏下跌了25%。然而,有人可能會辯稱,價格受到了大盤的影響,大盤在同一時間段內下跌了19%。
鑑於過去一週對股東的態度一直很嚴峻,讓我們調查一下基本面,看看我們能學到什麼。
查看我們對廣汽集團的最新分析
用巴菲特的話説,“船隻將在世界各地航行,但平坦的地球協會將蓬勃發展。市場上的價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差異……”評估圍繞一家公司的情緒變化的一個有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。
雖然股價在五年內下跌,但廣汽集團實際上成功地增加每股收益平均每年增長1.2%。因此,每股收益似乎並不能很好地指導人們理解市場對股票的估值。或者,增長預期在過去可能是不合理的。
通過瀏覽這些數字,我們可以假設,五年前,市場曾預期會有更高的增長。話雖如此,我們可能會通過查看其他指標來更好地瞭解股票的走勢。
我們注意到,股息一直保持健康,因此這並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。雖然股價下跌的原因並不完全明顯,但仔細看看該公司的歷史可能有助於解釋這一點。
下圖顯示了收益和收入隨時間的變化情況(如果您點擊該圖,您可以看到更多詳細信息)。
聯交所:2238盈利及收入增長2022年10月3日可能值得注意的是,首席執行官的薪酬低於類似規模公司的中位數。但是,儘管CEO的薪酬總是值得檢查的,但真正重要的問題是,公司能否在未來實現收益增長。這免費顯示分析師預測的報告應該有助於您形成對廣汽集團的看法
那股息呢?
重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報。TSR包括任何剝離或貼現融資的價值,以及任何股息,基於股息再投資的假設。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來説,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。碰巧,廣汽集團最近5年的TSR為-51%,超過了前面提到的股價回報。該公司支付的股息因此提振了總計股東回報。
不同的視角
雖然看到廣汽集團的股價全年下跌16%當然令人失望,但這並沒有股市下跌26%那麼糟糕。不幸的是,去年的表現可能預示着尚未解決的挑戰,因為它比過去五年9%的年化損失更糟糕。雖然一些投資者擅長買入那些陷入困境(但估值仍然被低估)的公司,但不要忘記巴菲特曾説過,扭虧為盈的情況很少出現轉機。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價可能產生的不同影響,但還有其他更重要的因素。一個恰當的例子:我們發現了廣汽集團的2個警示標誌你應該意識到,其中有1個是不容忽視的。
但請注意:廣汽集團可能不是最值得買入的股票。所以讓我們來看看這個免費過去有盈利增長(以及進一步增長預測)的有趣公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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