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We Think NagaCorp (HKG:3918) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think NagaCorp (HKG:3918) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that NagaCorp Ltd. (HKG:3918) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for NagaCorp
What Is NagaCorp's Debt?
As you can see below, NagaCorp had US$544.8m of debt, at June 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had US$215.3m in cash, and so its net debt is US$329.5m.
SEHK:3918 Debt to Equity History October 3rd 2022How Strong Is NagaCorp's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, NagaCorp had liabilities of US$187.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$623.3m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$215.3m in cash and US$37.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$558.5m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Since publicly traded NagaCorp shares are worth a total of US$2.88b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While NagaCorp has a quite reasonable net debt to EBITDA multiple of 2.4, its interest cover seems weak, at 0.56. The main reason for this is that it has such high depreciation and amortisation. While companies often boast that these charges are non-cash, most such businesses will therefore require ongoing investment (that is not expensed.) In any case, it's safe to say the company has meaningful debt. Shareholders should be aware that NagaCorp's EBIT was down 75% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine NagaCorp's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, NagaCorp recorded free cash flow worth 52% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
On the face of it, NagaCorp's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making NagaCorp stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. In light of our reservations about the company's balance sheet, it seems sensible to check if insiders have been selling shares recently.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
傳奇基金經理理想汽車·盧曾説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。當我們考慮一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡看它對債務的使用,因為債務過重可能導致破產。我們注意到NagaCorp Ltd.(HKG:3918)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務造成了多大的風險?
債務在什麼時候是危險的?
一般來説,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成為一個真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是用自己的現金流。如果情況真的變得很糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。然而,更常見(但代價仍然高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東的股份,只是為了支撐其資產負債表。然而,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本投資於高回報率增長的企業來説,債務可以成為一個非常好的工具。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。
查看我們對NagaCorp的最新分析
NagaCorp的債務是什麼?
如下所示,截至2022年6月,NagaCorp的債務為5.448億美元,與前一年大致相同。您可以單擊圖表查看更多詳細信息。然而,它也有2.153億美元的現金,因此其淨債務為3.295億美元。
聯交所:3918債轉股歷史2022年10月3日NagaCorp的資產負債表有多強勁?
根據最新報告的資產負債表,NagaCorp有1.879億美元的負債在12個月內到期,6.233億美元的負債在12個月後到期。作為抵消,它有2.153億美元的現金和3750萬美元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額為5.585億美元,比現金和短期應收賬款的總和還要多。
由於公開交易的NagaCorp股票總價值28.8億美元,這種負債水平似乎不太可能構成重大威脅。但有足夠的負債,我們肯定會建議股東繼續監控未來的資產負債表。
為了評估一家公司的債務相對於它的收益,我們計算它的淨債務除以它的利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆蓋)。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(淨債務與EBITDA之比),也考慮了與債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。
儘管NagaCorp的淨債務與EBITDA之比相當合理,為2.4倍,但其利息覆蓋似乎較弱,為0.56。主要原因是它的折舊和攤銷如此之高。雖然公司經常吹噓這些費用是非現金的,但大多數此類業務因此都需要持續投資(即不計入費用)。無論如何,可以有把握地説,該公司有大量債務。股東們應該知道,NagaCorp去年的息税前利潤下降了75%。如果這種下降趨勢繼續下去,那麼償還債務將比在素食大會上出售鵝肝醬更難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但最重要的是,未來的收益將決定NagaCorp未來保持健康資產負債表的能力。所以,如果你關注未來,你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。
最後,儘管税務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,我們顯然需要看看息税前利潤是否會帶來相應的自由現金流。在最近三年中,NagaCorp記錄的自由現金流相當於其息税前利潤的52%,考慮到自由現金流不包括利息和税收,這大致是正常的。這種冷酷的現金意味着,它可以在想要的時候減少債務。
我們的觀點
從表面上看,NagaCorp的利息擔保讓我們對該股持懷疑態度,其息税前利潤增長率並不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具誘惑力。但從好的方面來看,它將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流是一個好跡象,讓我們更加樂觀。看看資產負債表,並考慮到所有這些因素,我們確實認為債務讓NagaCorp的股票有點風險。有些人喜歡這種風險,但我們注意到了潛在的陷阱,所以我們可能更喜歡它揹負更少的債務。鑑於我們對該公司的資產負債表持保留態度,檢查內部人士最近是否一直在拋售股票似乎是明智的。
如果你有興趣投資於可以在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的企業,那麼看看這個免費資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業名單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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