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1.4% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for Sinotrans (HKG:598) Shareholders Over That Period
1.4% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for Sinotrans (HKG:598) Shareholders Over That Period
For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Sinotrans Limited (HKG:598), since the last five years saw the share price fall 49%. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 35% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 13% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 19% in the same timeframe.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Sinotrans isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Sinotrans
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Sinotrans actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 7.4% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
SEHK:598 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 2nd 2022It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Sinotrans
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Sinotrans, it has a TSR of -33% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 26% in the twelve months, Sinotrans shareholders did even worse, losing 29% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Sinotrans better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Sinotrans that you should be aware of.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對許多人來説,投資的主要目的是創造比整體市場更高的回報。但幾乎可以肯定的是,每個投資者都會同時擁有表現優異和表現不佳的股票。在這一點上,一些股東可能會質疑他們在中國外運有限公司(HKG:598),自過去五年股價下跌49%以來。受害的不只是長期持有者,因為該股去年下跌了35%。股價最近加速下跌,在過去三個月裏下跌了13%。然而,有人可能會辯稱,價格受到了大盤的影響,大盤在同一時間段內下跌了19%。
如果以過去一週為標準,投資者對中外運的情緒並不樂觀,所以讓我們看看基本面和股價之間是否存在錯配。
查看我們對中外運的最新分析
用巴菲特的話説,“船隻將在世界各地航行,但平坦的地球協會將蓬勃發展。市場上的價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差異……”一種不完美但簡單的方法來考慮市場對一家公司的看法是如何改變的,那就是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
不幸的是,在股價下滑的五年裏,中外運的每股收益(EPS)實際上以每年7.4%的速度增長。考慮到股價的反應,人們可能會懷疑,每股收益不是這段時間內業務表現的良好指南(可能是因為一次性的虧損或收益)。或者,增長預期在過去可能是不合理的。
由於每股收益增長和股價下跌之間缺乏相關性,因此有必要看看其他指標,試圖瞭解股價走勢。
我們注意到,股息一直保持健康,因此這並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。我們目前還不清楚為什麼股價會下跌,但進一步的研究可能會提供一些答案。
該公司的收入和收益(隨着時間的推移)如下圖所示(點擊查看具體數字)。
聯交所:598盈利及收入增長2022年10月2日可能值得注意的是,首席執行官的薪酬低於類似規模公司的中位數。但是,儘管CEO的薪酬總是值得檢查的,但真正重要的問題是,公司能否在未來實現收益增長。這免費顯示分析師預測的報告應該有助於您形成對中外運的看法
那股息呢?
重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。公平地説,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。以中國外運為例,它在過去5年的總資產收益率為-33%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
不同的視角
雖然大盤在過去12個月裏下跌了約26%,但中外運股東的表現更糟,跌幅為29%(甚至包括股息)。然而,這可能只是因為股價受到了更廣泛的市場緊張情緒的影響。也許有必要關注基本面,以防出現良機。遺憾的是,去年的業績為糟糕的表現畫上了句號,股東們在五年內面臨着每年6%的總虧損。一般來説,股價長期疲軟可能是一個壞信號,儘管反向投資者可能會希望研究這隻股票,希望它能好轉。跟蹤股價的長期表現總是很有趣的。但為了更好地瞭解中國外運,我們還需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,我們已經確定中國外運的1個警告標誌這一點你應該知道。
對於那些想要找到贏得投資這免費最近有內幕收購的不斷增長的公司名單可能就是合適的選擇。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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