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These 4 Measures Indicate That Longfor Group Holdings (HKG:960) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Longfor Group Holdings (HKG:960) Is Using Debt Extensively
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Longfor Group Holdings Limited (HKG:960) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Longfor Group Holdings
What Is Longfor Group Holdings's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 Longfor Group Holdings had debt of CN¥235.8b, up from CN¥210.0b in one year. However, it also had CN¥87.3b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥148.5b.
SEHK:960 Debt to Equity History October 1st 2022How Healthy Is Longfor Group Holdings' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Longfor Group Holdings had liabilities of CN¥442.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥221.1b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥87.3b as well as receivables valued at CN¥133.1b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥443.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥128.5b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Longfor Group Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Longfor Group Holdings has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.3, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. One way Longfor Group Holdings could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 10%, as it did over the last year. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Longfor Group Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Longfor Group Holdings recorded free cash flow worth 78% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
While Longfor Group Holdings's level of total liabilities has us nervous. To wit both its interest cover and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow were encouraging signs. We think that Longfor Group Holdings's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Longfor Group Holdings (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
馬克斯説得很好,他不是擔心股價波動,而是我擔心的是永久虧損的可能性……我認識的每個實際投資者都擔心。當我們考慮一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡看它對債務的使用,因為債務過重可能導致破產。重要的是龍湖集團控股有限公司(HKG:960)確實有債務。但這筆債務對股東來説是一個擔憂嗎?
什麼時候債務是個問題?
債務幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是用新資本還是用自由現金流。資本主義的一部分是“創造性破壞”的過程,破產的企業被銀行家無情地清算。儘管這並不常見,但我們確實經常看到負債累累的公司永久性地稀釋股東的權益,因為貸款人迫使他們以令人沮喪的價格籌集資金。當然,債務的好處是,它往往代表着廉價資本,特別是當它用能夠以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先同時考慮現金和債務水平。
查看我們對龍湖集團控股的最新分析
龍湖集團控股的債務是什麼?
下圖顯示,截至2022年6月,龍湖集團控股的債務為2358億加元,高於一年內的210億加元。你可以點擊查看更多細節。然而,它也有873億元現金,因此其淨債務為1485億元。
聯交所:960債轉股歷史2022年10月1日龍湖集團控股的資產負債表有多健康?
根據最近一次上報的資產負債表,龍湖集團控股有4422億加元的負債在12個月內到期,2211億加元的負債在12個月後到期。作為對這些債務的抵銷,該公司有873億加元的現金以及價值1331億加元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額為人民幣4430億元,超過了現金和短期應收賬款的總和。
這一赤字給這家1285億元人民幣的公司蒙上了一層陰影,就像一個龐然大物聳立在凡人之上。因此,我們肯定認為股東需要密切關注這一事件。歸根結底,如果債權人要求償還債務,龍湖集團控股很可能需要進行一次重大的資本重組。
我們通過查看公司的淨債務除以利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),並計算其息税前收益(EBIT)覆蓋利息支出(利息覆蓋)的容易程度,來衡量公司的債務負擔與其盈利能力的關係。因此,我們考慮債務相對於收益,包括折舊和攤銷費用。
龍湖集團控股的債務與息税前利潤之比為3.3%,這意味着大量債務,但對於大多數類型的業務來説,這仍然是相當合理的。但它的息税前利潤大約是利息支出的1K倍,這意味着該公司並沒有真的付出高昂的成本來維持這樣的債務水平。即使低成本被證明是不可持續的,這也是一個好跡象。龍湖集團控股擺脱債務的一種方法是停止更多借款,但像去年一樣繼續以10%左右的息税前利潤增長。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定龍湖集團控股能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。因此,合乎邏輯的一步是看看息税前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在最近三年中,龍湖集團控股錄得的自由現金流相當於其息税前利潤的78%,考慮到自由現金流不包括利息和税收,這一數字接近正常水平。這種冷酷的現金意味着,它可以在想要的時候減少債務。
我們的觀點
而龍湖集團控股的總負債水平讓我們感到緊張。換句話説,它的利息覆蓋和息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流都是令人鼓舞的跡象。綜合前述幾個數據點,我們認為龍湖集團控股的債務確實使其具有一定的風險。這不一定是一件壞事,因為槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但這是需要注意的。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。例如,我們已經確定龍湖集團控股的4個警告信號(1不能被忽視)你應該知道。
如果你有興趣投資於可以在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的企業,那麼看看這個免費資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業名單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
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在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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