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3 Healthcare Stocks to Sell Before They Die

3 Healthcare Stocks to Sell Before They Die

3只醫療保健類股,臨死前賣出
InvestorPlace ·  2022/09/30 11:50

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The Fed's key interest rate target now stands at 3%-3.25%, way up from 0%-0.25% at the beginning of the year. That means, for all companies, borrowing money is becoming much more expensive. As a result, healthcare companies losing a great deal of money will have trouble obtaining new loans they can afford to pay off, and many such firms will go out of business.

美聯儲的關鍵利益現在的利率目標目前為3%-3.25%,遠高於年初的0%-0.25%。這意味着,對所有公司來説,借錢的成本都要高得多。因此,損失慘重的醫療保健公司將很難獲得他們有能力償還的新貸款,許多這樣的公司將倒閉。

For investors, it's essential to avoid the stocks of such companies, and some readers may even want to consider selling the shares of these firms short. To help achieve those goals, I will identify three healthcare stocks to sell before they die.

對於投資者來説,避開這些公司的股票是必不可少的,一些讀者甚至可能想要考慮賣空這些公司的股票。為了幫助實現這些目標,我將確定三隻醫療保健股票在它們死前出售。

There are a few other important points to consider before reading this column. First, it takes drug makers at least several years to identify a promising drug candidate. Then, it has to run clinical trials, and obtain FDA approval. And the vast majority of drug candidates fail to obtain FDA approval.

在閲讀本專欄之前,還有其他幾個重要的問題需要考慮。首先,製藥商至少需要幾年時間才能確定一個有前途的候選藥物。然後,它必須進行臨牀試驗,並獲得FDA的批准。而且絕大多數候選藥物都未能獲得FDA的批准。

Meanwhile, due to the increase in interest rates and the Fed's quantitative tightening program, institutional investors will be much less likely to speculate on healthcare companies that are losing a great deal of money and have little chance of making comebacks.

同時,由於加息和美聯儲的量化緊縮計劃,機構投資者投機醫療保健公司的可能性將大大降低,這些公司虧損慘重,幾乎沒有機會捲土重來。

That said, here are three healthcare stocks to sell (or sell short) before they die:

話雖如此,這裏有三隻醫療保健類股可以在死前賣出(或做空):

IBIO
IBio
iBio $0.17
IBio$0.17
TDOC
TDOC
Teladoc $26.80
Teladoc$26.80
ALLK
ALLK
Allakos $6.08
阿拉科斯6.08美元

iBio (IBIO)

IBio(IBio)

Source: Shutterstock
消息來源:Shutterstock

In 2020, iBio (NYSEAMERICAN:IBIO) was one of the companies racing to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. Although the company touted the plant-based technology that was supposed to enable it to develop vaccines relatively quickly, it fell far behind its competitors in the race to create a safe and effective vaccine for the coronavirus.

在2020年,IBio(紐約:iBio)是競相開發冠狀病毒疫苗的公司之一。儘管該公司曾吹捧基於植物的技術這本應使其能夠相對快速地開發疫苗,但在創造安全有效的冠狀病毒疫苗的競賽中,它遠遠落後於競爭對手。

In September 2020, citing the company's tardiness and the many other coronavirus vaccines that were more advanced than its offering, I wrote, "I remain bearish on IBIO stock at this point."

2020年9月,以該公司的拖延和許多其他冠狀病毒疫苗為理由比它的產品更先進,我寫道:“目前我仍然看空iBio的股票。”

Fast forward to earlier this month, when iBio finally announced that it was giving up its efforts to obtain FDA approval for its coronavirus shot.

快進到本月早些時候,iBio終於到了宣佈,它正在放棄為其冠狀病毒疫苗獲得FDA批准的努力。

Meanwhile, as of May, iBio said it "plans to have its lead immuno-oncology asset, IBIO-101, enter [a] phase 1″ trial next year. That means its new lead drug candidate is several years away from generating any revenue. Moreover, the chances of it ever being approved are very low.

與此同時,截至5月份,, IBio表示IT“計劃”為了讓其領先的免疫腫瘤學資產iBio-101明年進入第一階段試驗。這意味着該公司新的候選主藥還需要幾年時間才能產生任何收入。此外,該法案獲得批准的可能性非常低。

In fiscal 2022, iBio lost $50.3 million, with just $39.5 million of "cash, cash equivalents and investments in debt securities" left as of June 30. That means it will probably need more money to survive by the end of 2023 or mid-2024.

在2022財年,iBio虧損了5030萬美元,只有39.5美元截至6月30日,留下了數百萬“現金、現金等價物和債務證券投資”。這意味着它可能需要更多資金才能在2023年底或2024年年中生存下來。

Put all of this information together, and iBio is probably heading for bankruptcy, or selling itself for a price way below the current level of IBIO stock.

綜合所有這些信息,iBio可能會走向破產,或者以遠低於目前iBio股票水平的價格出售自己。

Teladoc (TDOC)

Teladoc(TDOC)

Source: Piotr Swat / Shutterstock.com
來源:Piotr Swat/Shutterstock.com

Teladoc (NYSE:TDOC) seemed headed for deep trouble, and I was bearish on it a couple of years ago when it was flying high. In December 2020, shortly after the company had reported that its sales had jumped 110% in the third quarter that ended in September 2020, I wrote, 

Teladoc(紐約證券交易所代碼:TDOC))似乎走向了深深的麻煩,而我對此持悲觀態度幾年前當它飛得很高的時候。2020年12月,就在該公司報告稱,截至2020年9月的第三季度銷售額躍升110%後不久,我寫道:

given the likely intense competition that the company will face, the high valuation of TDOC stock, and the strong chances of its revenue growth slowing, I suggest that investors sell the shares.

考慮到該公司可能面臨的激烈競爭,TDOC股票的高估值,以及其收入增長放緩的可能性很大,我建議投資者出售這些股票。

At that point, the shares were changing hands for over $200. Yesterday they closed at $26.23.

當時,這些股票的成交價超過了200美元。昨日,該股收於26.23美元。

And in the past 12 months, TDOC had a net income of -$9.87 billion; further, the company's total debt as of June 30 stood at $1.6 billion, while it had only $884 million of cash.

在過去的12個月裏,TDOC淨收益為-98.7億美元;此外,該公司的截至6月30日,它的總債務為16億美元,而它只有8.84億美元的現金。

With telemedicine likely to become less popular as worries about the coronavirus fade further and Teladoc still facing a great deal of competition, the company, at best, will have to take out high-interest loans or sell its stock or itself at meager prices going forward.

隨着對冠狀病毒的擔憂進一步消退,遠程醫療可能變得不那麼受歡迎,Teladoc仍然面對激烈的競爭,該公司充其量只能獲得高息貸款,或者在未來以極低的價格出售股票或自己。

Allakos (ALLK)

阿拉科斯(ALLK)

Source: Pavel Kapysh/ Shutterstock.com
來源:Pavel Kapysh/Shutterstock.com

Allakos (NASDAQ:ALLK) is now a beleaguered drug maker. But, like Teladoc, not that long ago, its shares were soaring.

阿拉科斯(納斯達克:ALLK)現在是一家四面楚歌的製藥商。但是,和Teladoc一樣,就在不久前,它的股價也在飆升。

On Mar. 1, 2019, ALLK stock changed hands for $40.50. On Dec. 1, 2020, it had jumped to $140. Yesterday it closed at $5.60.

2019年3月1日,ALLK股票易手40.50美元。2020年12月1日,金價躍升至140美元。昨日收盤價為5.60美元。

In December 2021, however, two Phase 3 trials of the company's drug, Lirentelimab, showed that it lowered the number of problematic white blood cells of patients with eosinophilic gastrointestinal diseases but did not significantly reduce the patient's symptoms.

然而,在2021年12月,兩個階段3試驗vt.的E公司的藥物Lirentlimab顯示,它降低了嗜酸性胃腸道疾病患者的問題白細胞數量但並未顯著減輕患者的症狀。

After analyzing a subgroup of patients without certain conditions from a third Phase 3 trial, the company found that its drug had failed to improve those patients' symptoms by a significant amount as well. And Lirentelimab did not improve the signs of the entire group of 93 patients either.

在分析了來自第三階段3試驗的一組沒有特定疾病的患者後,該公司發現,其藥物也未能顯著改善這些患者的症狀。Lirentlimab也沒有改善整個93名患者的體徵。

For now, Allakos is shifting its focus, planning to report, in the second half of 2023, data from a Phase 2 trial of the drug as a treatment for "atopic dermatitis and chronic spontaneous urticaria." Unfortunately for the company, any Phase 3 trial results that would make investors and lenders optimistic about Lirentelimab are still likely a couple of years away. Further, Lirentelimab seems to be the only one of the company's drugs undergoing clinical trials.

目前,Allakos正在轉移重點,計劃在2023年下半年報告該藥作為治療“特應性皮炎”的第二階段試驗的數據和慢性病對該公司來説不幸的是,任何會讓投資者和貸款人對Lirentlimab持樂觀態度的3期試驗結果可能還需要幾年的時間。此外,Lirentlimab似乎是唯一該公司的藥品正在進行臨牀試驗。

In the past 12 months, the company's free cash flow was -$349.3 million. At the end of Q2, it had just $212 million in cash and $51.3 million in debt. Thus, Allakos is going to have to try to raise funds next year at high-interest rates. And given the data on Lirentelimab, it will probably have difficulty doing so. As a result, it is one of the top healthcare stocks to sell.

在過去12個月裏,該公司的自由現金流是-3.493億美元。截至第二季度末,它只有2.12億美元的現金和5130萬美元的債務。因此,阿拉科斯明年將不得不嘗試以高利率籌集資金。考慮到Lirentlimab上的數據,它可能很難做到這一點。因此,它是最值得出售的醫療保健類股之一。

On the date of publication, Larry Ramer did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在本文發表之日,拉里·拉默並未(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南的約束。

Larry Ramer has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 15 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel's largest business newspaper, Globes. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015. Among his highly successful, contrarian picks have been GE, solar stocks, and Snap. You can reach him on StockTwits at @larryramer.

拉里·拉默從事美國股市研究和撰寫文章已有15年之久。他曾受僱於《蒼蠅報》和以色列最大的商業報紙《環球報》。拉里於2015年開始為InvestorPlace撰寫專欄。在他非常成功的反向投資者選擇中,有通用電氣、太陽能股票和Snap。你可以通過StockTwits@larryramer聯繫到他。

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