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7 Real Estate Stocks to Sell Before They Die

7 Real Estate Stocks to Sell Before They Die

7只房地產股要在死前賣出
InvestorPlace ·  2022/09/29 17:02

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It's been a tumultous couple of years of real estate stocks. The pandemic caused unprecedented changes in people's daily lives and working habits. Some categories of real estate investment trusts (REITs) benefitted from these adjustments. Sub-sectors such as data centers and industrial warehouses enjoyed a surge in demand during the pandemic period.

這是房地產類股動盪的幾年。疫情給人們的日常生活和工作習慣帶來了前所未有的變化。一些類別的房地產投資信託基金(REITs)受益於這些調整。在大流行期間,數據中心和工業倉庫等子部門的需求激增。

Many categories of real estate, however, did not fare so well. One category that has taken a great deal of heat is malls and shopping centers. The past two years have seen a tremendous move toward e-commerce instead of brick and mortar retail. Offices are another category of real estate stocks facing problems. Workers are returning to the office little by little. But telecommuting is here to stay for many roles, and still more firms are adopting hybrid work models that require less-expensive office space. Office REITs are struggling to adapt to this change.

然而,許多類別的房地產表現並不那麼好。一個備受關注的類別是購物中心和購物中心。在過去的兩年裏,電子商務取代了實體零售,出現了巨大的變化。寫字樓是另一類面臨問題的地產股。工人們正在一點一點地回到辦公室。但遠程辦公將在這裏保留許多角色,而且更多的公司正在採用混合工作模式,這種模式需要更便宜的辦公空間。寫字樓REITs正在努力適應這種變化。

It's not just offices and shopping mall real estate stocks that are struggling, either. The huge rise in interest rates and change in credit market conditions are creating problems for several other REIT subsectors. Investors should be particularly careful with these seven real estate stocks.

陷入困境的也不僅僅是寫字樓和購物中心的房地產類股。利率的大幅上升和信貸市場狀況的變化正在給其他幾個REIT部門帶來問題。投資者對這七隻地產股要格外小心。

SPG Simon Property Group $89.13 MAC Macerich $7.99 IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties $88.09 GNL Global Net Lease $10.31 OPI Office Properties Trust $13.54 SKT Tanger Factory Outlets $13.59 MPW Medical Properties Trust $11.44
SPG Simon Property Group$89.13 Mac Macerich$7.99 IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties$88.09 GNL Global Net Lease$10.31 OPI Office Properties Trust$13.54 SKT Tanger Factory Outlets$13.59 MPW Medical Properties Trust$11.44

Simon Property Group (SPG)

西蒙地產集團(Simon Property Group)

Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com
來源:喬納森·韋斯/Shutterstock.com

A niche has developed on YouTube of folks videoing old malls in various states of decline. They range from malls that are still in operation with mostly empty hallways, to completely closed and abandoned ones. People have taken to viewing these "dead mall" videos, sometimes nostalgically, to remember a time when these buildings were still centers of commerce and social activity.

YouTube上已經形成了一個利基市場,人們可以在不同的衰落狀態下拍攝舊商場。它們的範圍從仍在運營、走廊大多空蕩蕩的商場,到完全關閉和廢棄的商場。人們開始觀看這些“死氣沉沉的購物中心”的視頻,有時是懷舊的,以紀念這些建築仍然是商業和社會活動中心的時代。

Not all malls are dead malls, of course. But an increasing number are. A 2020 report suggested that 25% of America's remaining 1,000 malls would shutter within the next 3-5 years. The collapse of formerly key department stores such as Sears and JC Penney has hastened this decline as malls are left without the anchor tenants these companies once provided.

當然,並不是所有的商場都是死氣沉沉的。但越來越多的人是這樣的。2020年的一份報告顯示,美國剩餘的1000家購物中心中有25%將在未來3-5年內關門。西爾斯(Sears)和JC Penney等昔日主要百貨商店的倒閉加速了這種衰落,因為商場失去了這些公司曾經提供的主要租户。

Simon Property (NYSE:SPG) has some of the nation's best malls. It has also been aggressive in diversifying into outlets and foreign real estate. Still, this company is fighting the inexorable decline of its core asset group. Simon made it through the pandemic in one piece, but the long-term outlook is cloudy at best. And given current inflation and the possibility of an economic slowdown, both shoppers and retailers may be in a tough spot this holiday season.

西蒙物業(紐約證券交易所代碼:SPG)擁有一些全國最好的購物中心。它還積極進軍門店和海外房地產領域的多元化業務。儘管如此,這家公司仍在與其核心資產集團不可阻擋的衰落作鬥爭。西蒙安然無恙地度過了大流行,但長期前景充其量也是陰雲密佈。考慮到目前的通貨膨脹和經濟放緩的可能性,購物者和零售商在這個假日季節都可能處於艱難的境地。

Macerich (MAC)

Macerich(MAC)

Source: Shutterstock
消息來源:Shutterstock

Macerich (NYSE:MAC) is another shopping mall REIT. The company has traditionally focused on high-end shopping malls. This trust's focus on luxury has insulated its malls, to an extent. While the middle class mall of old anchored by JC Penney and Sears is not a viable model nowadays, high-end malls are still hanging on.

馬塞裏奇(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:MAC)是另一家購物中心房地產投資信託基金。該公司傳統上專注於高端購物中心。這家信託基金對奢侈品的關注在一定程度上隔離了它的購物中心。雖然以JC Penney和西爾斯為支柱的老式中產階級購物中心如今已經不再是一個可行的模式,但高端購物中心仍在堅持。

Unfortunately for real estate stocks in this space, massive capital costs are required to build and maintain its luxury malls. While business is still okay at Macerich's properties, rents simply haven't gone up fast enough to provide much profit. In the late 2010s, MAC stock had already plunged from $50 to $20 as investors noted the darkening outlook for the company.

不幸的是,對於這個領域的房地產股來説,建造和維護其豪華購物中心需要鉅額資金成本。雖然Macerich的物業生意仍然不錯,但租金的上漲速度還不夠快,無法帶來太多利潤。在2010年代末,由於投資者注意到公司前景黯淡,Mac的股價已經從50美元暴跌至20美元。

The pandemic accelerated this trend; MAC stock fell to $6 in 2020 and the company's dividend was slashed. It's easy to blame Covid-19 for the company's problems. But the truth is that Macerich has a ton of debt and would have had a challenging future regardless. Between the lingering effects of the past two years and now sharply higher interest rates and a weakening economic situation, Macerich shares seem destined to slump below their prior lows.

疫情加速了這一趨勢;Mac股票在2020年跌至6美元,該公司的股息大幅削減。人們很容易將該公司的問題歸咎於新冠肺炎。但事實是,馬塞裏奇揹負着沉重的債務,無論如何都會有一個充滿挑戰的未來。在過去兩年的揮之不去的影響以及現在大幅提高的利率和疲軟的經濟形勢下,Macerich的股價似乎註定要跌破之前的低點。

Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR)

創新工業產權(IIPR)

Source: Don Pablo / Shutterstock.com
來源:Don Pablo/Shutterstock.com

Innovative Industrial Properties (NASDAQ:IIPR) is a specialty REIT focused on cannabis. Specifically, Innovative Industrial buys greenhouses and cannabis cultivation properties ,and then rents them out to marijuana growers.

創新的工業產權納斯達克(Sequoia Capital:IIPR)是一家專注於大麻的專業房地產投資信託基金。具體地説,創新工業公司購買温室和大麻種植物業,然後將其出租給大麻種植者。

Originally, this was a great business model due to a specific quirk. Cannabis remains illegal on a federal level, and thus banks typically won't lend to marijuana companies. This lack of capital can make it prohibitive for cannabis companies to finance their production facilites.

最初,由於一個特殊的怪癖,這是一個很棒的商業模式。在聯邦層面上,大麻仍然是非法的,因此銀行通常不會向大麻公司放貸。由於缺乏資金,大麻公司無法為其生產設施提供資金。

Innovative Industrial came up with the solution. It raised funds from investors and then uses those to finance the cultivation companies. At first, Innovative Industrial was the only game in town and earned massive returns on its invested capital. However, competition has surged into the arena as more REITs and specialty lenders go after the same market.

創新工業公司提出瞭解決方案。它從投資者那裏籌集資金,然後用這些資金為種植公司提供資金。起初,創新工業是鎮上唯一的遊戲,並從其投資資本中獲得了鉅額回報。然而,隨着更多的房地產投資信託基金和專業貸款機構追逐同一市場,競爭已進入該領域。

Meanwhile, some of Innovative's tenants are running into trouble. The downside of earning 20% on your capital, after, all, is that the tenant may not be able to afford such punitive rents. Major tenant King's Garden defaulted earlier this summer, sending IIPR stock down double digits. More tenants appear to be a on a weak financial footing. And to add to the headache, if and when marijuana is legalized nationally, banks will be able to lend to cannabis farmers directly, making Innovative's future much less certain.

與此同時,Innovative的一些租户也遇到了麻煩。畢竟,從你的資本中賺取20%的不利之處是,租户可能負擔不起這樣的懲罰性租金。今年夏天早些時候,主要租户國王花園發生違約,導致IIPR股價下跌兩位數。更多的租户似乎處於財務狀況不佳的狀態。更令人頭疼的是,如果大麻在全國範圍內合法化,銀行將能夠直接向大麻種植者放貸,這將使Innovative的未來變得更加不確定。

Global Net Lease (GNL)

全球淨租賃(GNL)

Source: Pixelbliss / Shutterstock.com
來源:Pixelbliss/Shutterstock.com

Global Net Lease (NYSE:GNL) is a REIT focused on net lease properties in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Triple net lease is a type of real estate transaction that involves leading a building to a tenant, where the tenant covers major operating expenses.

環球網租(紐約證券交易所代碼:GNL)是一家專注於美國、加拿大和歐洲淨租賃物業的房地產投資信託基金。三重淨租賃是一種房地產交易類型,涉及將大樓引向租户,租户支付主要運營費用。

Triple net leases are historically a solid-performing category of the REIT category. Accordingly, many investors like Global Net Lease's business model overall. However, the firm has always struggled to achieve the same level of success as rivals such as Realty Income (NYSE:O). Thanks to this, Global Net Lease has a high cost of capital, meaning it has to pay more to get funds from investors for new properties.

三重淨租賃歷來是REIT類別中表現穩健的類別。因此,許多投資者總體上喜歡環球網租賃的商業模式。然而,該公司一直在努力實現與競爭對手相同的成功水平,例如房地產收入(紐約證券交易所代碼:O)。由於這一點,Global Net Lease的資金成本很高,這意味着它必須支付更多費用才能從投資者那裏獲得新物業的資金。

This has led to Global Net Lease diluting its shareholder base considerably while offering an unusually high dividend yield. This worked out alright prior to 2020, but now the firm's weaker balance sheet is catching up to it. The firm's European exposure is largely in the United Kingdom. There, a fiscal crisis has sent the value of the British Pound plummeting and will impact Global Net Lease's revenues from that market. Right now, GNL stock is yielding 14%. Investors might think that's a great deal. But, more likely, Global Net will not be able to maintain its current payout, and thus will have to reduce its dividend.

這導致Global Net Lease在提供異常高的股息收益率的同時,大幅稀釋了其股東基礎。這在2020年前還不錯,但現在該公司較弱的資產負債表正在迎頭趕上。該公司在歐洲的敞口主要在英國。在那裏,財政危機導致英鎊價值暴跌,並將影響Global Net Lease在該市場的收入。目前,GNL股票的收益率為14%。投資者可能會認為這筆交易很划算。但更有可能的是,Global Net將無法維持目前的派息,因此將不得不減少股息。

Office Properties Trust (OPI)

辦公物業信託(OPI)

Source: GaudiLab / Shutterstock
來源:GaudiLab/Shutterstock

Office Properties Trust (NASDAQ:OPI) is one of the smaller struggling real estate stocks which, like Global Net Lease, seems likely to cut its dividend going forward. Office Properties Trust shares currently offer an eye-popping 15% dividend yield. That might seem like a great offer for retirees and income-seeking investors.

辦公物業信託基金納斯達克(Sequoia Capital:OPI)是規模較小、處境艱難的房地產股之一,與環球網租賃一樣,它似乎可能會削減未來的股息。Office Properties Trust股票目前提供了令人瞠目結舌的15%的股息收益率。對於退休人員和尋求收入的投資者來説,這似乎是一個很好的提議。

However, Office Properties Trust gets its income from offices. It doesn't own the top offices in a given market, either. It owns cheaper properties that historically attracted significant interest from tenants looking for a more affordable office lease.

然而,Office Properties Trust的收入來自寫字樓。它也不擁有某一特定市場的頂級寫字樓。它擁有更便宜的房產,這些房產歷來吸引了尋求更實惠寫字樓租賃的租户的濃厚興趣。

Now, however, companies can pick whatever office they want for new leases, given the low occupancy rates across the industry. Long story short, unless you own the newest, most modern, and most glamorous offices in a market, it's going to be rough sailing getting new tenants. Investors buying OPI stock for the 15% yield are looking at the past, when Office Properties Trust had a stable business outlook. Now, however, the company will likely have to accept much lower rates for its buildings going forward, leading to a major dividend cut.

然而,現在,鑑於整個行業的入住率很低,公司可以選擇任何他們想要的辦公室作為新的租約。長話短説,除非你在一個市場上擁有最新、最現代、最迷人的辦公室,否則尋找新租户將是一件艱難的事情。以15%的收益率購買OPI股票的投資者正在回顧過去,當時Office Properties Trust的業務前景穩定。然而,現在,該公司很可能不得不接受未來建築的低得多的費率,導致大幅削減股息。

Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT)

丹吉爾工廠奧特萊斯(SKT)

Source: Ritu Manoj Jethani / Shutterstock.com
來源:Ritu Manoj Jethani/Shutterstock.com

Tanger Factory Outlets (NYSE:SKT) is a shopping center REIT focused on outlets. The outlet center model was a great template for real estate stocks 20 years ago. Operators such as Tanger or Simon would build a major shopping destination in a tourist area or along a major highway in between two big cities. People would go to the outlet center and get bargains that weren't available at shopping malls or in downtown shopping areas. The thinking was that outlets gave retailers an alternative venue to clear out certain kinds of products, while giving shoppers a fun and novel bargain-hunting experience.

丹吉爾工廠奧特萊斯(紐約證券交易所代碼:SKT)是一家專注於奧特萊斯的購物中心。奧特萊斯中心模式是20年前房地產股的一個很好的模板。丹吉爾或西蒙等運營商將在兩個大城市之間的旅遊區或駭維金屬加工沿線建設一個主要的購物目的地。人們會去奧特萊斯中心,買到商場或市中心購物區買不到的便宜貨。他們的想法是,奧特萊斯為零售商提供了一個替代場所來清倉某些類型的產品,同時給購物者提供了一種有趣而新穎的便宜貨體驗。

It's far from certain that outlets make much sense in 2022, however. The internet has made it easy to go bargain-shopping without ever leaving your home. Meanwhile, discount retailers like Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) set up shop within major cities, making it possible to get the experience without having to drive to a far-away outlet center.

然而,在2022年開設門店是否有多大意義還遠未確定。互聯網讓你足不出户就能輕鬆地買到便宜貨。與此同時,折扣零售商喜歡羅斯·斯托雷斯(納斯達克:ROST)在大城市設立店鋪,這樣就可以獲得體驗,而不必開車去遙遠的直銷中心。

Tanger remains focused on its outlet business and hasn't made serious efforts to pivot the business. Like Macerich, Tanger's financial results were poor prior to the pandemic with the company consistently reporting flat-to-slightly-down financial results in the late 2010s. Now, things have gone from bad to worse for the REIT in the post-2020 landscape. Tanger may hang on for a little while longer, but the long-term prognosis for both Tanger and the outlet shopping experience seem grim.

Tanger仍專注於直銷業務,並未認真努力將業務重心轉移。與Macerich一樣,在疫情爆發前,Tanger的財務業績也很糟糕,該公司在2010年代末的財務業績一直持平至略有下降。現在,在2020年後的情況下,REIT的情況每況愈下。Tanger可能會再堅持一段時間,但對Tanger和奧特萊斯購物體驗的長期預測似乎都很嚴峻。

Medical Properties Trust (MPW)

醫療財產信託基金(MPW)

Source: venusvi / Shutterstock.com
來源:venusvi/Shutterstock.com

Medical Properties Trust (NYSE:MPW) is a REIT focused on ownership of hospitals. The firm has gone on a tremendous buying spree, acquiring hospitals left and right. Unfortunately, it has run into trouble as its largest tenant, Steward Health Care Systems, has lost $800 million in recent years. Medical Properties Trust has seemingly had to step in and lend large sums of money to Steward and its CEO directly to keep the struggling hospital system going. As Steward made up 30% of Medical Properties Trust's revenues in 2020, any default here could be devastating.

醫療財產信託基金(紐約證券交易所代碼:MPW)是一家專注於醫院所有權的房地產投資信託基金。該公司一直在大舉收購,收購了各家醫院。不幸的是,它遇到了麻煩,因為它最大的租户Steward Health Care Systems近年來虧損了8億美元。醫療財產信託公司似乎不得不介入,直接向斯圖爾特及其首席執行官提供大筆資金,以維持苦苦掙扎的醫院系統的運轉。由於Steward佔2020年醫療財產信託收入的30%,任何違約都可能是毀滅性的。

Short sellers have been hounding MPW stock all year, and with good reason. Shares continue to slide, and the trust's now-9% dividend yield seems increasingly tenuous.

賣空者全年都在追逐MPW的股票,這是有充分理由的。股價繼續下滑,該信託基金目前9%的股息收益率似乎越來越微不足道。

Adding to the above point, there has been huge trading in put options on Medical Properties Trust, specifically for its October 2021 options expiry. On one day alone, last week, more than 40,000 put options changed hands. This is tremendous volume for a small and relatively under-the-radar REIT, suggesting that someone is making a big bet on bad news about a tenant or possible dividend cut in the near future.

除此之外,醫療財產信託基金的看跌期權交易規模巨大,特別是在2021年10月期權到期的情況下。僅上週的一天,就有超過4萬份看跌期權易手。對於一家規模較小、相對低調的房地產投資信託基金來説,這是一個巨大的交易量,這表明有人正在大舉押注於有關租户或可能在不久的將來削減股息的壞消息。

On the date of publication, Ian Bezek did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在本文發表之日,Ian Bezek並未(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點是作者的觀點,受InvestorPlace.com發佈指南的約束。

Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.

伊恩·貝澤克已經為InvestorPlace.com和Seeking Alpha撰寫了1000多篇文章。他還曾擔任紐約對衝基金Kerrisdale Capital的初級分析師,該基金的資產規模為3億美元。你可以在Twitter上通過@irbezek聯繫到他。

The post 7 Real Estate Stocks to Sell Before They Die appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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