Zengame Technology Holding Limited's (HKG:2660) robust earnings report didn't manage to move the market for its stock. Our analysis suggests that this might be because shareholders have noticed some concerning underlying factors.

Check out our latest analysis for Zengame Technology Holding

Zooming In On Zengame Technology Holding's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to June 2022, Zengame Technology Holding had an accrual ratio of 0.51. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥521m, which is significantly less than its profit of CN¥591.6m. We note, however, that Zengame Technology Holding grew its free cash flow over the last year. The good news for shareholders is that Zengame Technology Holding's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Zengame Technology Holding's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Zengame Technology Holding's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Zengame Technology Holding's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Zengame Technology Holding at this point in time. For example, Zengame Technology Holding has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Zengame Technology Holding's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.