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Top EV Stocks to Dethrone Tesla as King of the Industry

Top EV Stocks to Dethrone Tesla as King of the Industry

頂級電動汽車股將取代特斯拉成為行業之王
InvestorPlace ·  2022/09/21 11:28

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Once upon a time, Tesla (TSLA) was the "golden goose" in the electric vehicle industry.

很久以前,特斯拉特斯拉(Tmall)是電動汽車行業的“金鵝”。

It burst onto the scene as the first major pure EV maker in the early 2010s. By the middle of the decade, Elon Musk & Co. commanded about 10% of the global electric car market.

它突然出現在現場第一家主要的純電動汽車製造商在2010年代初。到2015年,埃隆·馬斯克公司佔據了全球電動汽車市場約10%的份額。

In 2019 and 2020, the company had its big break. Tesla defied analysts' projections and successfully ramped production of its mass-consumer EV, the Model 3. During those two years, Tesla nearly doubled its global EV market share to more than 18%.

2019年和2020年,該公司迎來了重大突破。特斯拉打破了分析師的預測,成功地提高了其大眾消費電動汽車的產量。模型3。在這兩年裏,特斯拉幾乎雙倍其全球電動汽車市場佔有率超過18%。

But its era at the top has come to an end. And now it's time to look for EV stocks to buy to steal Tesla's crown in the EV industry.

但它位居榜首的時代已經結束。現在是時候去尋找電動汽車股票將被買入以奪走特斯拉在電動汽車行業的桂冠.

Stiff new EV competition has entered the fray.

激烈的新電動汽車競爭也加入了這場競爭。

Today, Tesla isn't gaining ground – it's ceding it to its competitors. Tesla's market share has rapidly eroded in 2021 and 2022.

如今,特斯拉並沒有取得進展,而是將其拱手讓給了競爭對手。特斯拉的市場份額已經迅速被侵蝕2021年和2022年。

As of June 2022 – the latest data available, per BloombergNEF – Tesla's global EV market share stood at just 13.7%:

根據BloombergNEF的最新數據,截至2022年6月,特斯拉的全球電動汽車市場份額僅為13.7%:

That's bad news for Tesla. But it's good news for competitors.

這對特斯拉來説是個壞消息。但這對競爭對手來説是個好消息.

If Tesla is losing market share, that means someone else is gaining market share. And they're gaining market share in a rapidly growing pie.

如果特斯拉正在失去市場份額,這意味着其他公司正在獲得市場份額。他們在快速增長的餡餅中獲得了市場份額。

Just look at how much the electric vehicle market has grown since Tesla's market share peaked in mid-2020. Global unit sales have risen nearly 300%, from 2.4 million cars in June 2020 to 9.3 million cars in June 2022.

只要看看自2020年年中特斯拉的市場份額達到頂峯以來,電動汽車市場已經增長了多少。全球汽車銷量增長了近300%,從2020年6月的240萬輛增加到2022年6月的930萬輛。

In other words, Tesla's struggles are someone else's fortunes.

換句話説,特斯拉的掙扎就是別人的財富。

So, who is winning these fortunes right now? Well, we have the top three EV stocks to buy right now to dethrone Tesla as the king of the industry.

那麼,現在誰贏得了這些財富呢?好的,我們有目前最值得買入的三大電動汽車股票取代特斯拉成為行業之王。

Interestingly, each of these EV stocks is like Tesla. But each is better at a certain wide-appeal characteristic that could allow them to best the reigning titan.

有趣的是,這些電動汽車股票中的每一隻都像特斯拉。但每個人都更擅長於某個廣受歡迎的特徵,這可能會讓他們擊敗衞冕巨人。

Top EV Stocks: LCID

排名靠前的電動汽車股:LCID

Source: Around the World Photos / Shutterstock.com
來源:世界各地的照片/Shutterstock.com

The first EV stock we like as a potential "Tesla killer" is Lucid (LCID).

我們喜歡的第一隻電動汽車股票是潛在的特斯拉殺手清澈 (LCID).

For all intents and purposes, Lucid is Tesla – just better.

在所有的意圖和目的,Lucid是特斯拉-只是更好。

Tesla built this seemingly untouchable EV empire on top of three critical competitive advantages: talent, technology, and brand. And Lucid is beating it in all three categories.

特斯拉將這個看似不可動搖的電動汽車帝國建立在三大關鍵競爭優勢之上:人才, 技術,以及品牌。而Lucid在所有三個類別中都擊敗了它。

On the talent front, Tesla has been bleeding out for the past few years. And now most of that talent (the same that built Tesla) now calls Lucid home.

在人才方面,特斯拉在過去幾年裏一直在流血。現在,這些人才中的大多數(就是打造特斯拉的那個人)現在把Lucid當成了家。

Of course, it all starts with Lucid's CEO Peter Rawlinson, the former chief engineer of the Tesla Model S. Yep. This is the former engineering brain behind Tesla's flagship EV – the one that started it all.

當然,這一切都始於Lucid的首席執行官彼得·羅林森,他曾是特斯拉Model S.Yep的總工程師。這是特斯拉旗艦電動汽車背後的前工程大腦--這一切都是由他開創的。

Supporting him is an impressive team of former Tesla, Audi, Apple (AAPL), Samsung, Ford (F), Intel (INTC), and GM (GM) execs. We're talking about folks who helped start Tesla and turn it into what it is today. And on top of that are very influential people behind some of Apple's hero products, like the iPhone.

支持他的是一支由前特斯拉、奧迪、蘋果(AAPL),三星, 福特 (F), 英特爾(INTC),以及全球機制 (全球機制)高管。我們談論的是那些幫助創立特斯拉並將其轉變為今天的公司的人。最重要的是,蘋果的一些英雄產品背後有非常有影響力的人,比如iPhone。

This is the most impressive confluence of talent in the EV industry outside of Tesla – and it's not even close. Lucid Motor's management team stacks up equally to the titan. And considering the current trend of Tesla losing talent and Lucid Motors gaining it, the latter will have much more talent than Tesla by 2025.

這是除特斯拉之外電動汽車行業最令人印象深刻的人才匯聚-它甚至還不是很接近。Lucid Motor的管理團隊與這位巨頭不相上下。考慮到目前特斯拉人才流失和Lucid Motors獲得人才的趨勢,到2025年,Lucid Motors擁有的人才將比特斯拉多得多。

And indeed, with this remarkable engineering and design team behind it, Lucid has developed, tested, and fine-tuned some of the industry's most impressive technology.

事實上,在這個傑出的工程和設計團隊的支持下,Lucid已經開發、測試和微調了一些業內最令人印象深刻的技術。

To answer your question, yes, this technology beats Tesla's EV tech on every key performance indicator.

為了回答你的問題,,這項技術節拍特斯拉的電動汽車技術在每一個關鍵的性能指標。

We're talking longer driving ranges, more horsepower, denser motors, faster acceleration, tighter control – the works.

我們談論的是更長的行駛里程,更大的馬力,更密集的馬達,更快的加速,更嚴格的控制--這些都是可行的。

Up until last year, those specs were all talk, no walk. But now these super-high-performance Lucid cars are out in the real world. And they're living up to the hype.

直到去年,這些規格都是空談,而不是步行。但現在,這些超高性能的Lucid汽車已經投入現實世界。他們不辜負炒作的要求。

Sure, these cars also cost an arm and a leg. They start at around $90,000. But that gets us to the last point: branding.

當然,這些車也花了很多錢。起價約為9萬美元。但這讓我們談到了最後一點:品牌化.

By making and selling $40,000 Model 3s (which look a lot like Model Ss) to college kids, Tesla has eroded its brand equity. Meanwhile, Lucid is coming to market with a premium brand equity that's strengthened by its exclusivity.

通過向大學生製造和銷售售價4萬美元的Model 3(看起來很像Model SS),特斯拉侵蝕了自己的品牌資產。同時, Lucid將帶着溢價的品牌資產上市,這一點因其排他性而得到加強。

They can get away with selling $90,000-plus cars because they have the brand and tech to match that price point.

他們可以銷售9萬美元以上的汽車,因為他們擁有與這個價格點相匹配的品牌和技術。

Overall, then, we view Lucid as Tesla – but better. And that's why LCID is one of our top EV stocks to buy right now.

總體而言,我們認為Lucid是特斯拉--但更好。這就是為什麼LCID是我們目前最值得買入的電動汽車股票之一。

RIVN: TSLA, but Bigger

RIVN:特斯拉,但更大

Source: Miro Vrlik Photography / Shutterstock.com
來源:Miro Vrlik攝影/Shutterstock.com

Next up is Rivian (RIVN). It's another company that we feel is like Tesla, but it's making bigger cars.

下一位是Rivian (RIVN)。這是另一家我們覺得像特斯拉的公司,但它生產的是更大的汽車。

Rivian is an electric vehicle startup that's designing, manufacturing, and selling high-end electric SUVs and pick-up trucks. Its SUV is a seven-seater with lots of space. Its truck is also spacious, and it has lots of power. Indeed, they are fundamentally unique EVs in the marketplace.

Rivian是一家電動汽車初創公司,設計、製造和銷售高端電動SUV和皮卡。它的SUV是一款七座的,有很大的空間。它的卡車也很寬敞,而且動力很大。事實上,它們在市場上基本上是獨一無二的電動汽車。

For five very specific reasons, we think Rivian could be one of the biggest EV makers in the world one day.

出於五個非常具體的原因,我們認為Rivian有朝一日可能成為世界上最大的電動汽車製造商之一。

First, this is a leader in a strong demand niche of the burgeoning EV industry. We know that the trucking niche of the automotive market is very large with very durable and strong demand drivers. Presumably, as that portion of the auto market gets electrified, there will emerge an equally large electric truck market. Presently, there is no clear leader in that market. But Rivian has a promising early start with a fantastic first-to-market truck that has among the best specs in the industry. This electric trucking market will support multiple winners, and we're confident Rivian will be one of them.

第一,這是一位領導者在蓬勃發展的電動汽車行業的強勁需求利基市場。我們知道,汽車市場的卡車運輸利基市場非常大,擁有非常耐用和強勁的需求驅動因素。據推測,隨着汽車市場的這一部分實現電氣化,將出現一個同樣龐大的電動卡車市場。目前,這個市場還沒有明顯的領頭羊。但Rivian有一個很有希望的早期開端,它是一款出色的率先上市的卡車,擁有業內最好的規格之一。這個電動卡車運輸市場將支持多個贏家,我們相信Rivian將是其中之一。

Second, the company has great brand equity, with strong technology and a fantastic first product. Rivian has established exceptional luxury branding and has developed leading EV battery and torque technology. These are two things that are very important for creating a great electric truck. Indeed, the R1T is probably the highest-performing electric pick-up truck in market today. And it should remain so for the foreseeable future.

第二,該公司擁有巨大的品牌資產,擁有強大的技術和出色的首發產品。Rivian建立了卓越的奢侈品牌,並開發了領先的電動汽車電池和扭矩技術。這兩件事對於創造一輛偉大的電動卡車非常重要。事實上,R1T可能是當今市場上性能最好的電動皮卡。在可預見的未來,這一點應該保持不變。

Third, Rivian has strong early demand signals. The company has more than 90,000 net preorders in the U.S. and Canada for the R1S and R1T, illustrating that consumers want these cars.

第三,Rivian有強烈的早期需求信號。該公司在美國和加拿大有超過9萬輛R1和R1T的淨訂單,這表明消費者想要這些車。

Fourth, the company has big support and partnerships. Aside from its recently-announced collaboration with Mercedes-Benz (DMLRY) (which gives it incredible runway to European market expansion), Rivian also has a very unique and promising partnership with Amazon (AMZN). The retail giant will buy at least 100,000 electric delivery vehicles from Rivian. The extent of this partnership broadly implies that Amazon has basically picked Rivian as its "horse" in the EV race. And at scale, it will convert its entire delivery fleet into Rivian cars. That represents a huge long-term opportunity.

第四,該公司擁有強大的支持和合作夥伴關係。除了最近宣佈的與梅賽德斯-奔馳(這為Rivian拓展歐洲市場提供了令人難以置信的跑道),Rivian還與亞馬遜(AMZN)。這家零售巨頭將從Rivian購買至少10萬輛電動送貨車輛。這一合作的程度大致意味着,亞馬遜基本上已經選擇了Rivian作為其在電動汽車競賽中的“馬”。在規模上,它將把整個送貨車隊改裝成Rivian汽車。這代表着一個巨大的長期機會。

Fifth, Rivian has a mammoth-sized balance sheet. The best thing about Rivian is that it has almost $20 billion in cash on the balance sheet. And that grants the company an almost unfair advantage over peers. Rivian plans to use basically every penny of that cash balance over the next two to three years to develop market-leading tech, secure market-leading supply deals, and establish market-leading production capacity. Rivian's $20 billion should enable it to create an electric vehicle empire by 2025.

第五,Rivian擁有龐大的資產負債表。Rivian最棒的一點是,它的資產負債表上有近200億美元的現金。這讓該公司相對於同行擁有了幾乎不公平的優勢。Rivian計劃在未來兩三年將現金餘額的每一分錢基本用於開發市場領先的技術、達成市場領先的供應協議,並建立市場領先的產能。Rivian的200億美元應該使其能夠在2025年之前創建一個電動汽車帝國。

Overall, then, Rivian has the necessary ingredients to dominate Tesla in the eSUV and electric pick-up truck market. We really like RIVN stock for its long-term potential.

總體而言,Rivian具備在電動SUV和電動皮卡市場稱霸特斯拉的必要要素。我們真的很喜歡RIVN的股票,因為它具有長期潛力。

TSLA-Beating EV Stocks: FSR

特斯拉擊敗電動汽車股票:FSR

Source: Eric Broder Van Dyke / Shutterstock.com
消息來源:埃裏克·布羅德·範·戴克/Shutterstock.com

Finally, we have Fisker (FSR) – a company we view as a cheaper version of Tesla.

最後,我們有菲斯克 (FSR)-一家我們認為是廉價版特斯拉的公司。

Fisker is an EV startup that's leveraging a platform-sharing business model. The company outsources all build components (except for design and software) to bring a high-performance electric vehicle to market at industry-low prices.

Fisker是一家電動汽車初創公司,正在利用平臺共享商業模式。該公司外包所有制造組件(設計和軟件除外),以行業最低的價格將高性能電動汽車推向市場。

We love that strategy. We live in a world of hot inflation, high gas prices, and high interest rates. Indeed, in that world, expensive electric vehicles don't sell as well as cheap ones do. And Fisker appears to be making the best cheap EV in the market.

我們喜歡這個策略。我們生活在一個高通脹、高油價和高利率的世界。事實上,在那個世界裏,昂貴的電動汽車並不像廉價的那樣暢銷。菲斯克似乎正在製造市場上最便宜的電動汽車。

That EV is Fisker's Ocean SUV, which launches in November.

這款電動汽車就是菲斯克的海洋SUV,將於11月推出。

It starts at $37,500, which is an absolutely unheard-of price for an eSUV model. It also features 250 to 350 miles of driving range with a unique design, a new brand, and a great software package.

它的起價為37,500美元,對於一款電動SUV來説,這是一個絕對聞所未聞的價格。它還擁有250至350英里的行駛里程,具有獨特的設計、新的品牌和強大的軟件包。

Economically speaking, the Ocean SUV gives consumers the most bang for their buck in the EV market. Unsurprisingly, reservations for this car already sit at an impressive 31,000 orders. And that number is growing by roughly 3,000 new orders per month. That's impressive momentum heading into the car's November launch. And it easily puts Fisker on track to hit its ~50,000-unit delivery target for 2023.

從經濟上講,海洋SUV在電動汽車市場給消費者帶來了最大的回報。不出所料,這款車的預訂量已經達到了令人印象深刻的3.1萬輛。這一數字正在以每月約3000份新訂單的速度增長。這是令人印象深刻的勢頭,進入11月份的汽車發佈。這很容易使菲斯克走上正軌,實現2023年約5萬台的交付目標。

We fully expect the Fisker Ocean SUV to be one of the best-selling electric cars in 2023.

我們完全預計菲斯克海洋SUV將成為2023年最暢銷的電動汽車之一。

More importantly, though, Fisker is about much more than just the Ocean SUV.

然而,更重要的是,菲斯克不僅僅是海洋SUV。

The Ocean SUV projects to be such a "big hit" because of its ability to optimally blend quality with affordability. This is a byproduct of competitive advantages Fisker has created through its platform-sharing model.

海洋SUV預計將會如此“大獲成功”,因為它能夠將質量與價格完美結合。這是菲斯克通過其平臺共享模式創造的競爭優勢的副產品。

To that end, we don't see Fisker as a one-hit wonder with the Ocean SUV. We believe the company's business model enables it to repeatedly launch popular EVs at the intersection of quality and affordability.

為此,我們不認為菲斯克是海洋SUV的一舉成名的奇蹟。我們相信,該公司的商業模式使其能夠在質量和價格之間反覆推出受歡迎的電動汽車.

Management is targeting ~225,000 deliveries of four different EV models by 2025, with an average sales price of over $50,000. We think that's entirely doable. If so, Fisker will net revenues of about $11 billion by 2025. We believe Fisker can achieve similar operating margins to Tesla, about 20%, which would put net profits at just shy of $2 billion (assuming a 20% tax rate).

管理層的目標是到2025年交付約22.5萬輛四種不同的電動汽車車型,平均售價超過50,000美元。我們認為這是完全可行的。如果是這樣的話,到2025年,菲斯克的淨收入將達到約110億美元。我們相信菲斯克可以實現與特斯拉類似的運營利潤率,約為20%,這將使淨利潤略低於20億美元(假設税率為20%)。

A 20X multiple on that implies a potential future valuation here of $40 billion. And the company is worth just $2.5 billion today.

20倍的市盈率意味着該公司未來的潛在估值為400億美元。如今,這家公司的市值僅為25億美元。

That's tremendous upside. And the risks are offset by a $1.2 billion cash pile on the balance sheet that should more than absorb all cash burn next year (projected at $750 million) and bridge the gap to profitability in late 2023.

這是一個巨大的上行空間。這些風險被資產負債表上12億美元的現金儲備所抵消,這些現金儲備應該會超過明年的所有現金消耗(預計為7.5億美元),並在2023年末彌合這一差距,實現盈利。

It's clear to see why FSR is one of our favorite EV stocks to buy right now.

很明顯,為什麼FSR是我們現在最喜歡購買的電動汽車股票之一.

The Final Word on the Best EV Stocks

關於最好的電動汽車股票的最終決定

Tesla's first-mover advantage in the big electric vehicle space is over.

特斯拉在大型電動汽車領域的先發優勢已經結束。

Once upon a time, the only "cool" high-performance EV you could buy was one of its cars. That's no longer true today. You have the Lucid Air, the Rivian R1T and R1S, and the Fisker Ocean, just to name a few.

曾幾何時,你能買到的唯一一輛“酷”的高性能電動車就是它的一輛車。如今,這一點已不再正確。你有晴朗空氣,Rivian R1T和R1S,以及菲斯克海洋,僅舉幾個例子。

That's why Tesla's global EV market share has eroded six points over the past two years. And that's before Lucid, Rivian, and Fisker – its three biggest competitors – have hit mass production.

這就是為什麼特斯拉的全球電動汽車市場份額在過去兩年裏侵蝕了6個百分點。這是在Lucid、Rivian和菲斯克--它最大的三個競爭對手--投入批量生產之前。

Once they do so between 2023 and 2025, Tesla's global EV market share will dwindle below 10%. And other EV stocks will have the opportunity to soar as they gobble up Tesla's market share.

一旦他們在2023年至2025年期間做到這一點,特斯拉的全球電動汽車市場份額將下降到10%以下。其他電動汽車股票將有機會飆升,因為它們吞噬了特斯拉的市場份額。

Lucid, Rivian, and Fisker are three such EV stocks.

Lucid、Rivian和菲斯克就是這樣的三隻電動汽車股票。

But they aren't even the best one to buy for Tesla's fall from grace.

他們甚至都不是最值得買的因為特斯拉失寵了。

In fact, just a few weeks ago, I put together an entire presentation on the one that is the best EV stock to buy right now.

事實上,就在幾周前,我整理了一份完整的演示文稿目前最值得購買的電動汽車股票。

Like the three we discussed today, this is the one EV stock you don't want left out of your portfolio as we head into 2023.

就像我們今天討論的三隻股票一樣,這是一隻你不希望在進入2023年時被排除在你的投資組合之外的電動汽車股票。

On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

截至發稿之日,盧克·蘭戈並未(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。

The post Top EV Stocks to Dethrone Tesla as King of the Industry appeared first on InvestorPlace.

取代特斯拉成為行業之王的後電動汽車股票首次出現在InvestorPlace上。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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