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Greentown China Holdings (HKG:3900) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Greentown China Holdings (HKG:3900) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Greentown China Holdings Limited (HKG:3900) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Greentown China Holdings
What Is Greentown China Holdings's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, Greentown China Holdings had CN¥139.8b of debt, up from CN¥127.9b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥58.3b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥81.6b.
SEHK:3900 Debt to Equity History September 16th 2022How Strong Is Greentown China Holdings' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Greentown China Holdings had liabilities of CN¥302.4b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥118.5b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥58.3b as well as receivables valued at CN¥91.3b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥271.3b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥39.9b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Greentown China Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
As it happens Greentown China Holdings has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.2 but very strong interest coverage of 619. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Also relevant is that Greentown China Holdings has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 25% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Greentown China Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Greentown China Holdings saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Greentown China Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Greentown China Holdings to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 4 warning signs with Greentown China Holdings (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
傳奇基金經理理想汽車·盧曾説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你考慮到任何一隻股票的風險有多大時,你需要考慮債務可能是顯而易見的,因為太多的債務可能會讓一家公司倒閉。我們注意到綠城中國控股有限公司(HKG:3900)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但股東是否應該擔心它的債務使用情況?
什麼時候債務是個問題?
一般來説,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成為一個真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是用自己的現金流。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人的債務,它可能會破產。然而,一種更常見(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久性地稀釋股東。當然,許多公司利用債務為增長提供資金,沒有任何負面後果。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。
查看我們對綠城中國控股的最新分析
綠城中國控股的債務是什麼?
如下所示,截至2022年6月底,綠城中國控股的債務為人民幣1398億元,高於一年前的人民幣1279億元。單擊圖像瞭解更多詳細信息。然而,由於其擁有583億加元的現金儲備,其淨債務較少,約為816億加元。
聯交所:3900債轉股歷史2022年9月16日綠城中國控股的資產負債表有多強勁?
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,綠城中國控股有3024億元的負債在一年內到期,1185億元的負債在一年內到期。作為對這些債務的抵銷,該公司有583億加元的現金以及價值913億加元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債超過了現金和(近期)應收賬款的總和2713億元。
這一赤字給這家399億元人民幣的公司蒙上了一層陰影,就像一個龐然大物聳立在凡人之上。因此,我們肯定認為股東需要密切關注這一事件。歸根結底,如果債權人要求還款,綠城中國控股很可能需要進行一次重大的資本重組。
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們債務相對於收益的水平。第一個是淨債務除以利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),第二個是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息覆蓋)的多少倍。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(淨債務與EBITDA之比),也考慮了與債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。
碰巧的是,綠城中國控股的淨債務與EBITDA的比率相當令人擔憂,為6.2,但利息覆蓋率非常高,為619。因此,要麼它可以獲得非常便宜的長期債務,要麼利息支出將會增長!同樣相關的是,綠城中國控股去年的息税前利潤增長了非常可觀的25%,從而增強了其償還債務的能力。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定綠城中國控股能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你關注未來,你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。
最後,儘管税務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,合乎邏輯的一步是看看息税前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,綠城中國控股的自由現金流總體上出現了大幅負增長。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務的風險大得多。
我們的觀點
坦率地説,綠城中國控股將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流,以及其對總負債保持領先的記錄,都讓我們對其債務水平感到相當不安。但至少它在用息税前利潤支付利息支出方面相當不錯;這是令人鼓舞的。我們非常清楚,由於綠城中國控股的資產負債表狀況良好,我們認為其風險確實相當大。因此,我們對這種動物的警惕幾乎就像飢餓的小貓害怕掉進主人的魚塘一樣:正如他們所説的那樣,一次被咬,加倍害羞。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。我們已經確定了4個警告信號與綠城中國控股(至少有一家是相關的),瞭解他們應該是你投資過程的一部分。
如果你對一家增長迅速、資產負債表堅如磐石的公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金成長型股票清單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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