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Why Shoucheng Holdings' (HKG:697) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Why Shoucheng Holdings' (HKG:697) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Even though Shoucheng Holdings Limited (HKG:697) posted strong earnings recently, the stock hasn't reacted in a large way. We think that investors might be worried about the foundations the earnings are built on.
Check out our latest analysis for Shoucheng Holdings
SEHK:697 Earnings and Revenue History September 15th 2022Zooming In On Shoucheng Holdings' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Shoucheng Holdings has an accrual ratio of 0.27 for the year to June 2022. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Even though it reported a profit of HK$901.3m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through HK$826m in the last year. It's worth noting that Shoucheng Holdings generated positive FCF of HK$79m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Shoucheng Holdings' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by HK$254m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Shoucheng Holdings had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to June 2022. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
Our Take On Shoucheng Holdings' Profit Performance
Shoucheng Holdings had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. Considering all this we'd argue Shoucheng Holdings' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. If you want to do dive deeper into Shoucheng Holdings, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. When we did our research, we found 2 warning signs for Shoucheng Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
Our examination of Shoucheng Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
即使壽成控股有限公司(HKG:697)最近公佈了強勁的收益,但該股並沒有做出太大的反應。我們認為,投資者可能擔心盈利的基礎。
查看我們對首誠控股的最新分析
聯交所:697盈利及收入歷史2022年9月15日放大首誠控股的收益
許多投資者都沒有聽説過現金流應計比率但它實際上是衡量一家公司在給定時期內自由現金流(FCF)支持公司利潤的程度的有用指標。為了得到應計比率,我們首先從一個時期的利潤中減去FCF,然後用這個數字除以該時期的平均運營資產。這一比率向我們展示了一家公司的利潤超過其固定現金流的程度。
這意味着負的應計比率是一件好事,因為它表明該公司帶來的自由現金流比其利潤所暗示的要多。雖然應計比率高於零並不令人擔憂,但我們確實認為,當一家公司的應計比率相對較高時,這一點值得注意。引用勒維倫和雷蘇泰克2014年的一篇論文,“應計利潤較高的公司未來的利潤往往較低”。
在截至2022年6月的一年中,壽成控股的應計比率為0.27。不幸的是,這意味着其自由現金流遠遠低於其公佈的利潤。儘管該公司報告盈利9.013億港元,但看看自由現金流就會發現,該公司去年實際上燒掉了8.26億港元。值得注意的是,首城控股一年前產生了7900萬港元的正FCF,所以至少他們過去做到了。然而,這並不是需要考慮的全部問題。我們可以看到,不尋常的項目影響了其法定利潤,從而影響了應計比率。對股東來説,好消息是,壽成控股去年的應計比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕讀數可能只是利潤和FCF短期錯配的一個例子。因此,一些股東可能希望在本年度實現更強勁的現金轉換。
這可能會讓你想知道,分析師對未來盈利能力的預測是什麼。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於他們估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
異常項目對利潤的影響
該公司去年有一些不同尋常的項目將利潤提高了2.54億港元,這一事實很可能在一定程度上解釋了其應計比率如此之低的原因。雖然有更高的利潤總是好事,但不尋常的東西帶來的巨大貢獻有時會挫傷我們的熱情。我們對全球大多數上市公司進行了統計,不尋常的項目在性質上是一次性的,這是非常常見的。考慮到這些提振被描述為“不尋常的”,這正如你所預期的那樣。相對於截至2022年6月的利潤,壽成控股的異常項目做出了相當大的貢獻。在其他條件不變的情況下,這可能會使法定利潤成為衡量潛在盈利能力的糟糕指標。
我們對壽成控股盈利表現的看法
壽成控股的應計比率較低,但它的利潤確實得到了不尋常項目的提振。考慮到這一切,我們認為壽成控股的利潤可能會給人一種過於慷慨的印象,表明其可持續的盈利水平。如果你真的想更深入地研究首誠控股,你還應該調查它目前面臨的風險。當我們做研究時,我們發現首誠控股的2個警示標誌(1不容忽視!)我們認為這值得你的全力關注。
我們對首誠控股的調查集中在某些因素上,這些因素可能會讓它的收益看起來比實際情況更好。在此基礎上,我們對此持懷疑態度。但還有很多其他方式可以讓你瞭解一家公司的看法。例如,許多人認為高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟指標,而另一些人則喜歡“跟着錢走”,尋找內部人士正在買入的股票。所以你可能想看看這個免費擁有高股本回報率的公司的集合,或內部人士正在購買的這份股票清單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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