Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Payoneer Global Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYO) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Payoneer Global
The Model
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$16.5m | US$27.7m | US$41.1m | US$55.2m | US$68.9m | US$81.2m | US$91.8m | US$100.8m | US$108.2m | US$114.5m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 96.72% | Est @ 68.29% | Est @ 48.38% | Est @ 34.45% | Est @ 24.7% | Est @ 17.87% | Est @ 13.09% | Est @ 9.75% | Est @ 7.4% | Est @ 5.76% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.2% | US$15.5 | US$24.6 | US$34.3 | US$43.4 | US$51.0 | US$56.6 | US$60.3 | US$62.3 | US$63.0 | US$62.7 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$473m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$114m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.2%– 1.9%) = US$2.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.7b÷ ( 1 + 6.2%)10= US$1.5b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$6.9, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqGM:PAYO Discounted Cash Flow September 13th 2022
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Payoneer Global as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.004. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Payoneer Global, we've put together three pertinent aspects you should consider:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Payoneer Global (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for PAYO's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我們將簡單介紹一下一種估值方法,該方法用預期的未來現金流對支付寶全球公司(Payoneer Global Inc.)(股票代碼:PAYO)的預期現金流進行折現,並將其折現為今天的價值,用來評估支付寶作為投資機會的吸引力。貼現現金流(DCF)模型是我們將應用的工具。在你認為你將無法理解它之前,只需繼續閲讀!它實際上比你想象的要簡單得多。
我們通常認為,一家公司的價值是它未來將產生的所有現金的現值。然而,貼現現金流只是眾多估值指標中的一個,它也並非沒有缺陷。任何有興趣瞭解更多內在價值的人,都應該閲讀一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我們對Payoneer Global的最新分析
模型
我們將使用兩階段貼現現金流模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是一個較高的成長期,接近終值,在第二個“穩定增長”階段捕捉到。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行貼現,以得出現值估計:
10年自由現金流(FCF)估計
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
槓桿式FCF(百萬美元) | 1650萬美元 | 2770萬美元 | 4110萬美元 | 5520萬美元 | 6890萬美元 | 8120萬美元 | 9180萬美元 | 1.008億美元 | 1.082億美元 | 1.145億美元 |
增長率預估來源 | Est@96.72% | Est@68.29% | Est@48.38% | Est@34.45% | EST@24.7% | Est@17.87% | Est@13.09% | Est@9.75% | EST@7.4% | Est@5.76% |
現值(美元,百萬)貼現@6.2% | 15.5美元 | 24.6美元 | 34.3美元 | 43.4美元 | 51.0美元 | 56.6美元 | 60.3美元 | 62.3美元 | 63.0美元 | 62.7美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=4.73億美元
在計算了最初10年內未來現金流的現值後,我們需要計算終止值,它考慮了第一階段之後的所有未來現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(1.9%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用6.2%的權益成本將未來現金流貼現至當前價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=1.14億美元×(1+1.9%)?(6.2%-1.9%)=27億美元
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=27億美元?(1+6.2%)10=15億美元
總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股本價值,在本例中為20億美元。在最後一步,我們用股本價值除以流通股的數量。與目前6.9美元的股價相比,在撰寫本文時,該公司的估值似乎略有高估。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。
NasdaqGM:Payo貼現現金流2022年9月13日
重要假設
上述計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,你可以自己試一試計算,並玩弄一下假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將Payoneer Global視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這次計算中,我們使用了6.2%,這是基於槓桿率為1.004的測試值。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
展望未來:
儘管一家公司的估值很重要,但它只是你需要對一家公司進行評估的眾多因素之一。用貼現現金流模型不可能獲得萬無一失的估值。你最好應用不同的案例和假設,看看它們會如何影響公司的估值。例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生重大影響。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價高於內在價值嗎?對於Payoneer Global,我們總結了你應該考慮的三個相關方面:
- 風險:每家公司都有,我們已經發現了Payoneer Global的4個警告信號(其中1個不容忽視!)你應該知道。
- 管理:內部人士是否一直在提高股價,以利用市場對Payo未來前景的情緒?查看我們的管理層和董事會分析,瞭解對CEO薪酬和治理因素的見解。
- 其他高質量替代產品:你喜歡一個好的全能運動員嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票互動列表,瞭解您可能會錯過的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對納斯達克指數中的每一隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。