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Does China Railway Group (SHSE:601390) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does China Railway Group (SHSE:601390) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, China Railway Group Limited (SHSE:601390) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for China Railway Group
What Is China Railway Group's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 China Railway Group had debt of CN¥363.9b, up from CN¥283.3b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥196.0b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥167.9b.
SHSE:601390 Debt to Equity History September 12th 2022How Healthy Is China Railway Group's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that China Railway Group had liabilities of CN¥854.3b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥281.2b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥196.0b and CN¥350.8b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥588.8b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥137.2b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, China Railway Group would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
China Railway Group's net debt is 3.1 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 29.4 times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. If China Railway Group can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 13% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if China Railway Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, China Railway Group burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, China Railway Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider China Railway Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for China Railway Group (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
馬克斯説得很好,他不是擔心股價波動,而是我擔心的是永久虧損的可能性……我認識的每個實際投資者都擔心。當我們考慮一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡看它對債務的使用,因為債務過重可能導致破產。重要的是中國中鐵集團有限公司(上海證券交易所:601390)確實揹負着債務。但股東是否應該擔心它的債務使用情況?
為什麼債務會帶來風險?
債務幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是用新資本還是用自由現金流。如果情況真的變得很糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。然而,一種更常見(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久性地稀釋股東。話雖如此,最常見的情況是一家公司對債務管理得相當好--並對自己有利。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。
查看我們對中鐵集團的最新分析
中國中鐵集團的債務是什麼?
下圖顯示,截至2022年6月,中國中鐵集團的債務為3639億加元,高於一年內的2833億加元。點擊查看更多詳情。然而,由於其現金儲備為人民幣1960億元,其淨債務較少,約為人民幣1679億元。
上證綜指:601390債轉股歷史2022年9月12日中國中鐵集團的資產負債表健康程度如何?
放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,中鐵集團有8543億元的負債在12個月內到期,還有2812億元的負債在12個月內到期。另一方面,一年內有1,960億元現金和3,508億元應收賬款到期。因此,其負債比現金和(近期)應收賬款之和高出5888億加元。
這一赤字給這家1372億元人民幣的公司蒙上了一層陰影,就像一個龐然大物聳立在凡人之上。因此,我們肯定認為股東需要密切關注這一事件。歸根結底,如果債權人要求償還債務,中國中鐵集團可能需要進行一次重大的資本重組。
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們債務相對於收益的水平。第一個是淨債務除以利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),第二個是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息覆蓋)的多少倍。因此,我們考慮債務相對於收益,包括折舊和攤銷費用。
中國中鐵集團的淨債務是其EBITDA的3.1倍,這是一個相當可觀但仍然合理的槓桿率。但它的息税前利潤大約是利息支出的29.4倍,這意味着該公司並沒有真的付出高昂的成本來維持這樣的債務水平。即使低成本被證明是不可持續的,這也是一個好跡象。如果中國中鐵集團能夠保持去年13%的息税前利潤增長速度,那麼它的債務負擔將更容易管理。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定中國中鐵集團能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你關注未來,你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。
但我們的最後考慮也很重要,因為一家公司不能用賬面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化為自由現金流。在過去的三年裏,中國中鐵集團燒掉了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況會在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着它使用債務的風險更大。
我們的觀點
從表面上看,中鐵集團將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流讓我們對這隻股票持懷疑態度,其總負債水平並不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空蕩蕩的餐廳更誘人。但至少它在用息税前利潤支付利息支出方面相當不錯;這是令人鼓舞的。我們非常清楚,鑑於中國中鐵資產負債表的健康狀況,我們認為該集團的風險確實相當大。出於這個原因,我們對該股相當謹慎,我們認為股東應該密切關注其流動性。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。例如,我們已經確定中國中鐵集團的2個警示標誌(1是關於的)你應該知道。
歸根結底,關注那些沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。你可以訪問我們的這類公司的特別名單(都有利潤增長的記錄)。這是免費的。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
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Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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