In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (SGX:Y92) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Thai Beverage
The Method
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
Levered FCF (THB, Millions) | ฿36.0b | ฿38.8b | ฿39.7b | ฿40.6b | ฿41.5b | ฿42.4b | ฿43.2b | ฿44.0b | ฿44.9b | ฿45.7b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x4 | Est @ 2.46% | Est @ 2.27% | Est @ 2.13% | Est @ 2.04% | Est @ 1.97% | Est @ 1.93% | Est @ 1.89% | Est @ 1.87% |
Present Value (THB, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% | ฿33.7k | ฿34.0k | ฿32.5k | ฿31.1k | ฿29.8k | ฿28.4k | ฿27.1k | ฿25.8k | ฿24.6k | ฿23.5k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ฿291b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ฿46b× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (6.9%– 1.8%) = ฿918b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ฿918b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= ฿471b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ฿762b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$0.6, the company appears quite good value at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SGX:Y92 Discounted Cash Flow September 12th 2022
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Thai Beverage as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.871. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Thai Beverage, we've compiled three further elements you should explore:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Thai Beverage (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does Y92's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SGX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在本文中,我們將通過預測泰國釀酒股份有限公司(新加坡證券交易所代碼:Y92)未來的現金流並將其折現為今天的價值來估計其內在價值。為此,我們將利用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。這聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上很簡單!
我們通常認為,一家公司的價值是它未來將產生的所有現金的現值。然而,貼現現金流只是眾多估值指標中的一個,它也並非沒有缺陷。任何有興趣瞭解更多內在價值的人,都應該閲讀一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我們對泰國釀酒的最新分析
該方法
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。首先,我們必須對未來十年的現金流進行估計。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,所以這些未來現金流的總和就會貼現到今天的價值:
10年自由現金流(FCF)估計
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
槓桿式FCF(THB,百萬) | ฿36.0b | ฿38.8b | ฿39.7b | ฿40.6b | ฿41.5b | ฿42.4b | ฿43.2b | ฿44.0b | ฿44.9b | ฿45.7b |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師X5 | 分析師x4 | Est@2.46% | Est@2.27% | Est@2.13% | Est@2.04% | Est@1.97% | Est@1.93% | Est@1.89% | Est@1.87% |
現值(THB,百萬)貼現@6.9% | ฿33.7k | ฿34.0k | ฿32.5k | ฿31.1k | ฿29.8k | ฿28.4k | ฿27.1k | ฿25.8k | ฿24.6k | ฿23.5k |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF) = ฿291b
第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率1.8%的5年平均水平。我們以6.9%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=泰銖46b×(1+1.8%)?(6.9%-1.8%)=泰銖918b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10= ฿918b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= ฿471b
總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股權價值,在本例中為泰銖762B。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數量。與目前0.6新元的股價相比,該公司的價值似乎相當不錯,較目前的股價有45%的折讓。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。
新交所:Y92年9月12日貼現現金流
假設
上述計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將泰國釀酒視為潛在股東,我們使用股權成本作為貼現率,而不是考慮債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了6.9%,這是基於槓桿率為0.871的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
展望未來:
就構建你的投資論文而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。為什麼內在價值高於當前股價?對於泰國釀酒,我們還彙編了三個你應該探索的元素:
- 風險例如,我們發現泰國釀酒的2個警示標誌(1有點令人擔憂!)在這裏投資之前你應該意識到這一點。
- 未來收益:與同行和更廣泛的市場相比,Y92的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他高質量替代產品:你喜歡一個好的全能運動員嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票互動列表,瞭解您可能會錯過的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對新交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。