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What Does The Future Hold For Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. (HKG:2777)? These Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates
What Does The Future Hold For Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. (HKG:2777)? These Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates
One thing we could say about the analysts on Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. (HKG:2777) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.
Following the latest downgrade, the eight analysts covering Guangzhou R&F Properties provided consensus estimates of CN¥50b revenue in 2022, which would reflect a chunky 8.2% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 76% to CN¥1.72. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥76b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.37 in 2022. So we can see that the consensus has become notably more bearish on Guangzhou R&F Properties' outlook with these numbers, making a sizeable cut to this year's revenue estimates. Furthermore, they expect the business to be loss-making this year, compared to their previous forecasts of a profit.
See our latest analysis for Guangzhou R&F Properties
SEHK:2777 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 8th 2022The consensus price target fell 22% to CN¥2.62, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Guangzhou R&F Properties at CN¥8.44 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥1.22. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 16% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Guangzhou R&F Properties is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts are expecting Guangzhou R&F Properties to become unprofitable this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of Guangzhou R&F Properties' future valuation. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Guangzhou R&F Properties after today.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Guangzhou R&F Properties analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
關於分析師,我們可以說一件事 廣州富力置業有限公司 (HKG: 2777)——他們並不樂觀,他們剛剛對該組織的短期(法定)預測進行了重大的負面修訂。他們的收入估計被大幅下調,這可能隱含地承認先前的預測過於樂觀。
在最近的降級之後,報道廣州富力地產的八位分析師對2022年收入500億人民幣進行了共識估計,這將反映其銷售額在過去12個月中大幅下降8.2%。預計在不久的將來,每股虧損將大幅減少,縮小76%,至1.72元人民幣。在最新更新之前,分析師一直預測2022年的收入爲760億元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲3.37元人民幣。因此,我們可以看出,根據這些數字,廣州富力地產的前景的共識明顯變得更加悲觀,這使今年的收入預期大幅下調。此外,與之前的盈利預測相比,他們預計今年該業務將出現虧損。
查看我們對廣州富力地產的最新分析
聯交所:2777 收益和收入增長 2022 年 9 月 8 日共識目標股價下跌22%,至2.62元人民幣,在收入和收益前景疲軟之後,分析師顯然對該公司感到擔憂。但是,固定單一目標股價可能是不明智的,因爲共識目標實際上是分析師目標股價的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡查看估值範圍,看看對公司的估值是否存在任何分歧的看法。目前,最看漲的分析師對廣州富力地產的估值爲每股8.44元人民幣,而最看跌的分析師估值爲每股1.22元人民幣。因此,在這種情況下,我們不會對分析師的價格目標給予太多的可信度,因爲對於該業務可以產生甚麼樣的業績,顯然存在一些截然不同的看法。考慮到這一點,我們不會過分依賴共識目標價格,因爲它只是一個平均值,分析師對該業務的看法顯然存在一些截然不同的看法。
瞭解這些預測的更多背景信息的一種方法是查看它們與過去的表現相比如何,以及同一行業中其他公司的表現。這些估計意味着銷售額預計將放緩,預計到2022年底,年化收入將下降16%。這表明與過去五年4.9%的年增長率相比大幅下降。相比之下,我們的數據表明,在可預見的將來,同一行業的其他公司(有分析師的報道)的收入預計將每年增長8.4%。因此,儘管預計其收入將萎縮,但這種陰雲並不帶來一線希望——預計廣州富力地產將落後於整個行業。
底線
最重要的一點是,分析師預計廣州富力地產今年將無利可圖。遺憾的是,他們還下調了收入預期,最新的預測表明,該業務的銷售增長速度將慢於整個市場。共識目標股價明顯下降,分析師似乎沒有對最近的業務發展感到放心,這導致對廣州富力地產未來估值的估計降低。鑑於市場情緒的明顯變化,我們理解投資者在今天之後是否對廣州富力地產變得更加謹慎。
即便如此,業務的長期發展軌跡對於股東的價值創造更爲重要。我們有來自多位廣州富力地產分析師的估計,到2024年,你可以在這裏的平臺上免費看到這些估計。
另一種搜索有趣公司的方法可能是 到達轉折點 就是追蹤管理層是買入還是賣出,我們的 免費的 內部人士正在收購的成長型公司名單。
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂? 取得聯繫 直接和我們聯繫。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是一般性的。 我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章無意提供財務建議。 它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未將最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。簡而言之,華爾街對上述任何股票都沒有頭寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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