The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (HKG:293), since the last five years saw the share price fall 31%.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Cathay Pacific Airways
Cathay Pacific Airways isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over half a decade Cathay Pacific Airways reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 19% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. It seems pretty reasonable to us that the share price dipped 6% per year in that time. We doubt many shareholders are delighted with this share price performance. It is possible for businesses to bounce back but as Buffett says, 'turnarounds seldom turn'.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:293 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 7th 2022
Cathay Pacific Airways is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Cathay Pacific Airways in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Cathay Pacific Airways' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Cathay Pacific Airways shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 18%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Cathay Pacific Airways has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 26% in the last twelve months. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 3% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
選股的主要目的是尋找跑贏大盤的股票。但主要的遊戲是找到足夠多的贏家來抵消輸家在這一點上一些股東可能會質疑他們對國泰航空有限公司(HKG:293),自過去五年股價下跌31%以來。
由於股東在較長期內下跌,讓我們看看這段時間的基本基本面,看看它們是否與回報一致。
查看我們對國泰航空的最新分析
國泰航空目前尚未盈利,因此大多數分析師都會關注營收增長,以瞭解其基礎業務的增長速度。當一家公司沒有盈利時,我們通常預計會看到良好的收入增長。這是因為快速的收入增長可以很容易地推斷出預期利潤,通常是相當大的規模。
在過去的五年裏,國泰航空公司的往績12個月營收每年減少19%。委婉地説,這讓它成了一個沒有吸引力的羣體。在我們看來,股價在這段時間裏每年下跌6%似乎是相當合理的。我們懷疑有多少股東對這種股價表現感到滿意。企業有可能反彈,但正如巴菲特所説,“扭虧為盈的情況很少出現轉機”。
您可以在下圖中看到收益和收入隨時間的變化(單擊圖表查看確切的值)。
聯交所:293盈利及收入增長2022年9月7日
國泰航空是一隻知名的股票,有大量的分析師報道,這表明它對未來的增長有一定的可見性。你可以在這裏看到分析師對國泰航空的預測互動未來利潤預估圖表。
那麼總股東回報(TSR)呢?
如果不提國泰航空公司與中國航空公司之間的區別,我們就太失職了。股東總回報(TSR)及其股價回報。TSR是一種回報計算,計入了現金股息的價值(假設收到的任何股息都進行了再投資),以及任何貼現融資和剝離的計算價值。股息對國泰航空的股東來説確實是有益的,這種現金支付解釋了為什麼國泰航空在過去5年中18%的股東總損失沒有股價回報那麼糟糕。
不同的視角
很高興看到國泰航空在過去12個月中回報了股東26%的總回報。毫無疑問,最近的回報率遠好於TSR在過去五年中每年3%的損失。這讓我們有點警惕,但這家企業可能已經扭轉了命運。大多數投資者都會花時間檢查內幕交易的數據。你可以點擊這裏,看看內部人士是在買入還是賣出。
如果你喜歡和管理層一起買股票,那麼你可能會喜歡這本書免費公司名單。(提示:內部人士一直在買入這些股票)。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。