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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Shares Could Be 38% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Shares Could Be 38% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥6.26b | CN¥7.62b | CN¥8.80b | CN¥10.2b | CN¥11.3b | CN¥12.1b | CN¥12.9b | CN¥13.5b | CN¥14.0b | CN¥14.5b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 10.25% | Est @ 7.76% | Est @ 6.01% | Est @ 4.79% | Est @ 3.94% | Est @ 3.34% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7% | CN¥5.9k | CN¥6.7k | CN¥7.2k | CN¥7.9k | CN¥8.2k | CN¥8.2k | CN¥8.2k | CN¥8.1k | CN¥7.9k | CN¥7.6k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥76b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥14b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.7%– 1.9%) = CN¥313b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥313b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= CN¥164b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥240b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$26.5, the company appears quite good value at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NYSE:ZTO Discounted Cash Flow September 2nd 2022The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at ZTO Express (Cayman) as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.955. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For ZTO Express (Cayman), there are three important items you should assess:
- Financial Health: Does ZTO have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does ZTO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在本文中,我們將通過估計開曼羣島中通快遞-SW(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:ZTO)的未來現金流並將其折現為現值,來估計該公司的內在價值。貼現現金流(DCF)模型是我們將應用的工具。不要被行話嚇跑了,它背後的數學實際上是相當簡單的。
不過請記住,有很多方法可以評估一家公司的價值,貼現現金流只是其中一種方法。任何有興趣瞭解更多內在價值的人,都應該閲讀一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
看看我們對中通快遞-SW(開曼羣島)的最新分析
一步一步地計算
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年為企業帶來的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,所以這些未來現金流的總和就會貼現到今天的價值:
10年自由現金流(FCF)估計
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | CN元62.6億元 | 淨額76.2億元 | CN人民幣88.0億元 | CN元102億元 | 淨額113億元 | 淨額121億元 | 淨額129億元 | 淨額135億元 | 淨額14億元 | 淨額145億元 |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師X5 | 分析師X5 | 分析師x1 | 分析師x1 | Est@10.25% | Est@7.76% | Est@6.01% | Est@4.79% | Est@3.94% | Est@3.34% |
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@6.7% | CN元5.9K | CN元6.7K | CN元7.2K | CN元7.9K元 | CN元8.2K | CN元8.2K | CN元8.2K | CN元8.1K | CN元7.9K元 | CN元7.6K元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元760億元
第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(1.9%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用6.7%的權益成本,將未來現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元14b×(1+1.9%)?(6.7%-1.9%)=CN元313b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元3130億?(1+6.7%)10=CN元1640億元
那麼,總價值或權益價值就是未來現金流的現值之和,在這種情況下,現金流是240B元。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。與目前26.5美元的股價相比,該公司的價值似乎相當不錯,較目前的股價有38%的折讓。不過,請記住,這只是一個大致的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣--垃圾輸入,垃圾輸出。
紐約證券交易所:中通貼現現金流2022年9月2日假設
我們要指出,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,你可以自己試一試計算,並玩弄一下假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將中通快遞-SW(開曼羣島)視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了6.7%,這是基於槓桿率為0.955的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
展望未來:
雖然貼現現金流的計算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要評估的眾多因素之一。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,如果終端價值增長率稍有調整,可能會極大地改變整體結果。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價低於內在價值嗎?對於中通快遞-SW(開曼羣島)來説,你應該評估三個重要的項目:
- 財務狀況:中通是否擁有健康的資產負債表?看看我們的自由資產負債表分析,對槓桿和風險等關鍵因素進行了六項簡單的檢查。
- 未來收益:中通的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對紐約證交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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