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Earnings Report: Sinotrans Limited Missed Revenue Estimates By 15%
Earnings Report: Sinotrans Limited Missed Revenue Estimates By 15%
Investors in Sinotrans Limited (HKG:598) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.6% to close at HK$2.28 following the release of its interim results. Revenues were CN¥55b, 15% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of CN¥0.50 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Sinotrans
SEHK:598 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 28th 2022Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Sinotrans, is for revenues of CN¥108.9b in 2022, which would reflect a discernible 7.6% reduction in Sinotrans' sales over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be CN¥0.53, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥124.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.51 in 2022. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes after the latest results, with a real cut to revenues at the same time as boosting EPS forecasts.
The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of HK$3.41, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Sinotrans analyst has a price target of HK$3.93 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$2.90. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Sinotrans shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 15% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Sinotrans is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Sinotrans following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at HK$3.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Sinotrans. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Sinotrans analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Sinotrans that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
投資者在中國外運有限公司(HKG:598)在公佈中期業績後,股價上升4.6%,收報2.28港元,本週表現良好。營收為人民幣550億加元,比分析師預期低15%,不過虧損似乎沒有明顯惡化,法定每股虧損人民幣0.50加元,符合分析師預期。對於投資者來説,這是一個重要的時刻,因為他們可以在公司的報告中跟蹤公司的表現,查看專家對明年的預測,以及對業務的預期是否有任何變化。我們認為,讀者會發現看到分析師對明年最新(法定)盈利後的預測會很有趣。
查看我們對中國外運的最新分析
聯交所:598盈利及收入增長2022年8月28日考慮到最新的業績,研究中外運的七位分析師目前的共識是,2022年的收入將達到人民幣1089億元,這將反映出中外運在過去12個月的銷售額明顯下降7.6%。法定每股收益預計為0.53加元,與過去12個月基本持平。在本報告發布前,分析師一直在模擬2022年收入1245億加元,每股收益0.51加元。事實上,我們可以看到,在最新業績公佈後,人們的共識發生了一些根本性的變化,在提高每股收益預期的同時,實際削減了收入。
市場共識並未對每股3.41港元的目標價作出重大調整,顯示預期盈利改善可望抵銷明年收入下降的影響。看看分析師估計的範圍,評估異常值與平均值的差異也可能是有啟發意義的。最樂觀的中外運分析師給出的目標價為每股3.93港元,而最悲觀的分析師則認為目標價為2.9港元。分析師對這項業務的看法肯定各不相同,但在我們看來,估計的差距還不夠大,不足以表明等待中外運股東的可能是極端結果。
瞭解這些預測的更多背景信息的一種方法是,看看它們與過去的表現如何比較,以及同行業的其他公司的表現如何。我們要強調的是,銷售預計將逆轉,預計到2022年底,年化收入將下降15%。與過去五年12%的歷史增長率相比,這是一個顯著的變化。相比之下,我們的數據表明,在可預見的未來,同一行業的其他公司(有分析師覆蓋)的收入預計將以每年12%的速度增長。因此,儘管預計其營收將會萎縮,但這片烏雲並不會帶來一線希望--預計中外運將落後於整個行業。
底線
最重要的是,分析師們上調了每股收益預期,表明在這些業績公佈後,人們對中外運的樂觀情緒明顯增強。不利的一面是,他們還下調了營收預期,預測意味着營收表現將遜於整個行業。然而,收益對企業的內在價值更為重要。共識目標價持穩在3.41港元,最新預估不足以對其目標價產生影響。
考慮到這一點,我們不會太快得出關於中外運的結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤重要得多。我們有多位中外運分析師對2024年的預測,你可以在我們的平臺上免費看到。
然而,在你太興奮之前,我們已經發現中國外運的1個警告標誌這一點你應該知道。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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