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Jiangxi Copper Company Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Jiangxi Copper Company Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Investors in Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (HKG:358) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.0% to close at HK$10.22 following the release of its half-yearly results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of CN¥255b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 15% to hit CN¥1.04 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Jiangxi Copper
SEHK:358 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 28th 2022Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from nine analysts covering Jiangxi Copper is for revenues of CN¥447.3b in 2022, implying a measurable 5.1% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 9.0% to CN¥1.59 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥446.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.51 in 2022. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Jiangxi Copper's earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target fell 7.4% to HK$13.17, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Jiangxi Copper analyst has a price target of HK$24.84 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$7.83. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 9.9% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 20% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Jiangxi Copper's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Jiangxi Copper's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Jiangxi Copper's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangxi Copper analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Jiangxi Copper has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
投資者在江西銅業股份股份有限公司香港上市公司(HKG:358)在發佈半年業績後,股價上漲5.0%,收於10.22港元,本週表現良好。總體而言,這不是一個很好的結果。雖然2,550億加元的收入與分析師的預測一致,但盈利低於預期,比法定預期低15%,達到每股1.04元。盈利對投資者來説是一個重要的時刻,因為他們可以跟蹤一家公司的表現,看看分析師對明年的預測,以及對該公司的情緒是否發生了變化。我們收集了最新的法定預測,看看分析師是否在這些結果之後改變了他們的盈利模型。
看看我們對江西銅業股份的最新分析
聯交所:358盈利及收入增長2022年8月28日在最近的收益報告之後,九位跟蹤江西銅業股份的分析師一致認為2022年的收入將達到4473億元人民幣,這意味着與過去12個月相比,銷售額將大幅下降5.1%。預計同期每股法定收益將下降9.0%至1.59加元。在本報告發布前,分析師們一直在模擬2022年收入4467億加元,每股收益1.51加元。因此,在這些結果公佈後,人們對江西銅業股份的盈利潛力似乎變得更加樂觀了。
該公司普遍預期股價下跌7.4%,至13.17港元,表明上調盈利預期不足以抵消分析師的其他擔憂。然而,這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,因為一些投資者在評估分析師的價格目標時,也喜歡考慮預期中的價差。最樂觀的江西銅業股份分析師的目標價為每股24.84港元,而最悲觀的分析師則認為目標價為7.83港元。因此,在這種情況下,我們不會對分析師的價格目標賦予太多可信度,因為對於這項業務能產生什麼樣的業績,顯然存在一些截然不同的觀點。因此,根據共識價格目標做出決定可能不是一個好主意,畢竟,這只是這個廣泛估計範圍的平均值。
我們看待這些估計的另一種方式是放在更大的背景下,比如預測與過去的表現如何比較,以及預測相對於行業內的其他公司是更樂觀還是更樂觀。這些預估意味着銷售預計將放緩,預計到2022年底,年化收入將下降9.9%。這表明,與過去五年20%的年增長率相比,這一數字大幅下降。相比之下,我們的數據表明,在可預見的未來,同一行業的其他公司(有分析師覆蓋)的收入預計將以每年4.0%的速度增長。很明顯,江西銅業股份的營收預計將遠遠遜於整個行業。
底線
對我們來説,最大的收穫是共識的每股收益上調,這表明人們對江西銅業股份明年盈利潛力的看法明顯改善。從積極的一面來看,營收預期沒有重大變化;儘管預測意味着營收表現將遜於整個行業。由於分析師似乎對最新的結果不放心,一致的目標價大幅下降,導致對江西銅業股份未來估值的估計較低。
話雖如此,該公司盈利的長期軌跡比明年重要得多。我們有多位江西銅業股份分析師對2024年的預測,你可以在我們的平臺上免費看到。
你還是需要注意風險,比如-江西銅業股份有1個警告標誌我們認為你應該意識到。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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