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Downgrade: Here's How Analysts See Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926) Performing In The Near Term
Downgrade: Here's How Analysts See Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926) Performing In The Near Term
The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously. Investors however, have been notably more optimistic about Akeso recently, with the stock price up an impressive 19% to HK$25.65 in the past week. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.
After this downgrade, Akeso's twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥1.0b in 2022. This would be a major 287% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 14% from last year to CN¥1.31. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥1.1b and losses of CN¥1.16 per share in 2022. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for Akeso
SEHK:9926 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 28th 2022The consensus price target fell 8.0% to CN¥30.14, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Akeso's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Akeso analyst has a price target of CN¥51.62 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥27.81. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Akeso's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14x annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 102% per annum over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 41% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Akeso to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Akeso.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Akeso analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
最新的分析師報道可能預示着對Akeso公司(HKG:9926),分析師們一刀切地削減了他們的法定預期,這可能會讓股東們有點震驚。營收和每股收益(EPS)預期均大幅下調,因為分析師將最新的業務前景考慮在內,得出結論認為他們之前過於樂觀。然而,投資者最近對Akeso的態度明顯更加樂觀,該公司股價在過去一週上漲了19%,至25.65港元。評級下調是否會對股票需求產生負面影響還有待觀察。
在此次評級下調後,Akeso的12位分析師現在預測,2022年的收入將達到人民幣10億元。與過去12個月相比,這將是銷售額287%的重大改善。預計虧損將得到控制,較去年收窄14%,至人民幣1.31元。然而,在這一共識更新之前,分析師們一直預測2022年收入為人民幣11億元,每股虧損人民幣1.16元。因此,市場情緒發生了明顯變化,分析師大幅下調了今年的營收預期,同時上調了每股虧損預期。
查看我們對Akeso的最新分析
聯交所:9926盈利及收入增長2022年8月28日共識目標價下跌8.0%,至30.14加元,暗示每股收益較低是阿克蘇估值的領先指標。然而,這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,因為一些投資者在評估分析師的價格目標時,也喜歡考慮預期中的價差。最樂觀的Akeso分析師的目標價為每股51.62加元,而最悲觀的分析師認為目標價為27.81加元。注意到分析師目標價之間的巨大差距嗎?這對我們來説意味着基礎業務有相當廣泛的可能場景。
當然,看待這些預測的另一種方式是將它們放在與行業本身相反的背景下。分析師們肯定預計Akeso的增長將加快,截至2022年底的14倍年化增長率預測與過去一年102%的歷史增長率相比是有利的。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,類似行業的其他公司(有分析師覆蓋)的收入預計將以每年41%的速度增長。顯而易見的是,儘管增長前景比最近的過去更光明,但分析師們也預計Akeso的增長速度將快於整個行業。
底線
最重要的是,分析師上調了對今年每股虧損的預期。儘管分析師確實下調了營收預期,但這些預測仍意味着營收表現將好於大盤。在分析師的情緒發生如此明顯的變化後,如果讀者現在對Akeso感到有點警惕,我們就會理解了。
即便如此,企業的長期發展軌跡對股東的價值創造要重要得多。我們有多位阿克索分析師對2024年的預測,你可以在我們的平臺上免費看到。
當然,看到公司管理層投資大筆資金投資一隻股票,就像知道分析師是否在下調他們的預期一樣有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下這個免費內部人士正在買入的股票清單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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