Most people feel a little frustrated if a stock they own goes down in price. But often it is not a reflection of the fundamental business performance. So while the China BlueChemical Ltd. (HKG:3983) share price is down 15% in the last year, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -9.0%. That's better than the market which declined 18% over the last year. The silver lining (for longer term investors) is that the stock is still 2.0% higher than it was three years ago. The share price has dropped 23% in three months.
With the stock having lost 4.2% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
Check out our latest analysis for China BlueChemical
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Even though the China BlueChemical share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
China BlueChemical's dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SEHK:3983 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 25th 2022
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, China BlueChemical's TSR for the last 1 year was -9.0%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, China BlueChemical shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 9.0% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 18%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with China BlueChemical , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
如果他們擁有的股票價格下跌,大多數人都會感到有點沮喪。但它往往不能反映企業的基本面表現。因此,雖然中國藍化股份有限公司(HKG:3983)去年股價下跌15%,股東總回報(包括股息)為-9.0%。這比去年下跌18%的市場要好。(對於長期投資者來説)一線希望是,該股仍比三年前高出2.0%。該公司股價在三個月內下跌了23%。
鑑於該公司股價在過去一週下跌了4.2%,我們有必要看看它的業務表現,看看是否有任何危險信號。
查看我們對中國藍化的最新分析
雖然有效市場假説繼續被一些人傳授,但事實證明,市場是過度反應的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。考察市場情緒如何隨時間變化的一種方法是觀察一家公司的股價和每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。
儘管中國藍化的股價在過去一年裏有所下降,但其每股收益實際上有所改善。可能是股價之前被過度炒作了。
令人驚訝的是,儘管每股收益有所改善,但股價卻下跌了這麼多。但我們可能會發現一些不同的衡量標準可以更好地解釋股價走勢。
在我們看來,中國藍化的股息似乎是健康的,因此我們懷疑收益率是否令市場擔憂。從我們看到的情況來看,營收相當持平,所以這並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。當然,這可能只是因為它根本沒有達到市場的普遍預期。
下圖顯示了收益和收入隨時間的變化情況(如果您點擊該圖,您可以看到更多詳細信息)。
聯交所:3983盈利及收入增長2022年8月25日
我們很高興地報告,這位首席執行官的薪酬比類似資本公司的大多數首席執行官都要低。但是,儘管CEO的薪酬總是值得檢查的,但真正重要的問題是,公司能否在未來實現收益增長。因此,我們建議您查看以下內容免費顯示共識預測的報告
那股息呢?
重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報。TSR是一種回報計算,計入了現金股息的價值(假設收到的任何股息都進行了再投資),以及任何貼現融資和剝離的計算價值。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來説,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。恰好,中國藍化最近一年的TSR為-9.0%,超過了前面提到的股價回報。該公司支付的股息因此提振了總計股東回報。
不同的視角
雖然虧損從來都不是好事,但中國藍化的股東可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在內,他們過去12個月9.0%的虧損沒有市場虧損約18%那麼糟糕。較長期的投資者不會如此沮喪,因為他們在五年內每年會獲得4%的收益。可能該業務只是面臨一些短期問題,但股東應密切關注基本面。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價可能產生的不同影響,但還有其他更重要的因素。例如,考慮一下無處不在的投資風險幽靈。我們已經確定了1個警告信號與中國藍化的合作,瞭解他們應該是你投資過程的一部分。
當然了,如果你把目光投向別處,你可能會發現這是一筆很棒的投資。所以讓我們來看看這個免費我們預計收益將會增長的公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。