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Here's Why Hope Education Group (HKG:1765) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Here's Why Hope Education Group (HKG:1765) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Hope Education Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:1765) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Hope Education Group
What Is Hope Education Group's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Hope Education Group had debt of CN¥4.17b at the end of February 2022, a reduction from CN¥4.38b over a year. On the flip side, it has CN¥950.5m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥3.22b.
SEHK:1765 Debt to Equity History August 24th 2022How Healthy Is Hope Education Group's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Hope Education Group had liabilities of CN¥6.54b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥4.98b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥950.5m and CN¥1.63b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥8.93b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥4.33b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Hope Education Group would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Hope Education Group's debt is 3.1 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.3 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. The good news is that Hope Education Group grew its EBIT a smooth 69% over the last twelve months. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hope Education Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Hope Education Group burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Hope Education Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Hope Education Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Hope Education Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
馬克斯説得很好,他不是擔心股價波動,而是我擔心的是永久虧損的可能性……我認識的每個實際投資者都擔心。因此,當你評估一家公司的風險有多大時,聰明的投資者似乎知道債務--通常涉及破產--是一個非常重要的因素。我們注意到希望教育集團有限公司。(HKG:1765)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但這筆債務對股東來説是一個擔憂嗎?
為什麼債務會帶來風險?
一般來説,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成為一個真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是用自己的現金流。最終,如果公司不能履行其償還債務的法定義務,股東可能會一無所有地離開。儘管這並不常見,但我們確實經常看到負債累累的公司永久性地稀釋股東的權益,因為貸款人迫使他們以令人沮喪的價格籌集資金。當然,債務的好處是,它往往代表着廉價資本,特別是當它用能夠以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。
查看我們對希望教育集團的最新分析
希望教育集團的淨債務是多少?
下圖顯示,截至2022年2月底,希望教育集團的債務為41.7億加元,低於一年內的43.8億加元。你可以點擊查看更多詳細信息。另一方面,它擁有9.505億加元的現金,導致淨債務約為32.2億加元。
聯交所:1765債轉股歷史2022年8月24日希望教育集團的資產負債表有多健康?
從最近的資產負債表可以看出,希望教育集團有65.4億元的負債在一年內到期,還有49.8億元的負債在一年內到期。另一方面,它有9.505億加元的現金和16.3億加元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額為人民幣89.3億元,比現金和近期應收賬款加起來還要多。
這一赤字給這家43.3億元人民幣的公司蒙上了一層陰影,就像一個龐然大物聳立在凡人之上。因此,毫無疑問,我們會密切關注它的資產負債表。畢竟,如果希望教育集團今天不得不償還債權人的債務,它很可能需要進行大規模的資本重組。
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們債務相對於收益的水平。第一個是淨債務除以利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),第二個是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息覆蓋)的多少倍。這樣,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量,也考慮了為其支付的利率。
希望教育集團的債務是其EBITDA的3.1倍,EBIT覆蓋了利息支出的4.3倍以上。綜上所述,這意味着,儘管我們不希望看到債務水平上升,但我們認為它可以處理好目前的槓桿。好消息是,希望教育集團在過去12個月中息税前利潤平穩增長了69%。就像母親慈愛地擁抱新生兒一樣,這種增長增強了公司的韌性,使公司在管理債務方面處於更有利的地位。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但最重要的是,未來的收益將決定希望教育集團未來保持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。因此,有必要檢查這筆息税前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的三年裏,希望教育集團燒掉了大量現金。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務的風險大得多。
我們的觀點
從表面上看,希望教育集團將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流讓我們對這隻股票持懷疑態度,其總負債水平並不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具誘惑力。但從好的方面來看,它的息税前利潤增長率是一個好兆頭,讓我們更加樂觀。我們非常清楚,由於資產負債表的健康狀況,我們認為希望教育集團真的很有風險。因此,我們對這種動物的警惕幾乎就像飢餓的小貓害怕掉進主人的魚塘一樣:正如他們所説的那樣,一次被咬,加倍害羞。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。請注意,希望教育集團正在展示我們的投資分析中的2個警告信號,你應該知道關於……
歸根結底,關注那些沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。你可以訪問我們的這類公司的特別名單(都有利潤增長的記錄)。這是免費的。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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