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Things Look Grim For Ascletis Pharma Inc. (HKG:1672) After Today's Downgrade
Things Look Grim For Ascletis Pharma Inc. (HKG:1672) After Today's Downgrade
One thing we could say about the analysts on Ascletis Pharma Inc. (HKG:1672) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Ascletis Pharma's twin analysts is for revenues of CN¥130m in 2022, which would reflect a huge 66% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 30% to CN¥0.21 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥149m and losses of CN¥0.12 per share in 2022. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
View our latest analysis for Ascletis Pharma
SEHK:1672 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 24th 2022The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥2.04, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Ascletis Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥2.39 and the most bearish at CN¥2.29 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Ascletis Pharma is an easy business to forecast or the underlying assumptions are obvious.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Ascletis Pharma's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 66% growth to the end of 2022 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 36% a year over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 39% per year. So it looks like Ascletis Pharma is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Ascletis Pharma.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2024, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
關於分析師們,我們可以説一件事Ascletis製藥公司(HKG:1672)-他們並不樂觀,剛剛對其對該組織的短期(法定)預測進行了重大負面修訂。營收和每股收益(EPS)預期均大幅下調,因為分析師將最新的業務前景考慮在內,得出結論認為他們之前過於樂觀。
在評級下調後,Ascletis Pharma的兩位分析師的最新共識是,2022年收入將達到1.3億元人民幣,這將反映出與過去12個月相比,銷售額大幅增長66%。預計虧損將暴增30%,至每股0.21元。然而,在最新估計之前,分析師們一直預測2022年營收為1.49億加元,每股虧損0.12加元。因此,在最近的共識更新之後,人們的觀點發生了相當大的變化,分析師們大幅下調了收入預期,同時預計每股虧損將會增加。
查看我們對Ascletis Pharma的最新分析
聯交所:1672盈利及收入增長2022年8月24日共識目標價大致保持在2.04元人民幣不變,這或許暗示着,較弱的盈利前景預計不會對估值產生長期影響。然而,這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,因為一些投資者在評估分析師的價格目標時,也喜歡考慮預期中的價差。對Ascletis Pharma有一些不同的看法,最樂觀的分析師對其估值為2.39元人民幣,最悲觀的分析師估值為每股2.29元人民幣。即便如此,在估值相對接近的情況下,分析師們似乎對自己的估值相當有信心,這表明Ascletis Pharma是一家很容易預測的企業,或者潛在的假設是顯而易見的。
現在看一看更大的圖景,我們可以理解這些預測的方法之一是看看它們與過去的業績和行業增長估計如何比較。例如,我們注意到Ascletis Pharma的增長率預計將大幅加快,預計到2022年底,收入將按年率計算增長66%。這遠高於過去三年每年36%的歷史降幅。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,該行業的其他公司(有分析師覆蓋)的收入預計將以每年39%的速度增長。因此,至少在一段時間內,Ascletis Pharma有望比競爭對手增長得更快。
底線
最重要的是,分析師上調了對今年每股虧損的預期。儘管分析師確實下調了營收預期,但這些預測仍意味着營收表現將好於大盤。鑑於評級下調,目標價缺乏變化令人費解,但由於預計今年將出現嚴重下跌,如果投資者對Ascletis Pharma有點警惕,我們也不會感到意外。
即便如此,企業的長期發展軌跡對股東的價值創造要重要得多。至少有一位分析師提供了對2024年的預測,這可以在我們的平臺上免費看到。
當然,看到公司管理層投資大筆資金投資一隻股票,就像知道分析師是否在下調他們的預期一樣有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下這個免費內部人士正在買入的股票清單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
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在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
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