Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. Investor sentiment seems to be improving too, with the share price up 9.6% to US$31.37 over the past 7 days. Whether the upgrade is enough to drive the stock price higher is yet to be seen, however.
Following the upgrade, the current consensus from Northern Oil and Gas' six analysts is for revenues of US$1.5b in 2022 which - if met - would reflect a credible 3.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 70% to US$4.19. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.57 in 2022. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in analyst sentiment in recent times, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas
NYSE:NOG Earnings and Revenue Growth August 23rd 2022
Although the analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$44.91, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Northern Oil and Gas at US$63.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Northern Oil and Gas' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 31% p.a. growth over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 6.0% per year. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, Northern Oil and Gas is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for this year, expecting improving business conditions. On the plus side, they also lifted their revenue estimates, and the company is expected to perform better than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Northern Oil and Gas could be a good candidate for more research.
Analysts are clearly in love with Northern Oil and Gas at the moment, but before diving in - you should be aware that we've identified some warning flags with the business, such as a weak balance sheet. You can learn more, and discover the 4 other concerns we've identified, for free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Northern Oil and Gas Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
北方石油天然氣公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:NOG)今天,隨着分析師大幅上調今年的預測,股東們將有理由微笑。分析師們大幅上調了營收預期,表明企業基本面出現了明顯改善。投資者情緒似乎也在改善,過去7天,該公司股價上漲9.6%,至31.37美元。然而,此次升級是否足以推高股價還有待觀察。
升級後,北方石油天然氣公司的六位分析師目前的共識是,2022年的收入將達到15億美元-如果得到滿足-將反映出其過去12個月的銷售額可信地增長了3.3%。每股收益預計將飆升70%,至4.19美元。此前,分析師一直在預測2022年的營收為13億美元,每股收益(EPS)為2.57美元。因此,我們可以看到,最近分析師的信心有了相當明顯的提高,在最新的估計中,收入和每股收益都得到了相當大的提升。
查看我們對北方石油天然氣公司的最新分析
紐約證券交易所:NOG收益和收入增長2022年8月23日
儘管分析師上調了盈利預期,但一致預期的44.91美元目標價沒有變化,表明預測業績不會對公司估值產生長期影響。看看分析師估計的範圍,評估異常值與平均值的差異也可能是有啟發意義的。目前,最樂觀的分析師對北方石油天然氣公司的估值為每股63.00美元,而最悲觀的分析師估值為30.00美元。這是一個相當廣泛的估計價差,表明分析師們預測了該業務可能出現的各種結果。
當然,看待這些預測的另一種方式是將它們放在與行業本身相反的背景下。我們要強調的是,北方石油天然氣公司的收入增長預計將放緩,截至2022年底的預測年化增長率為6.7%,遠低於歷史上31%的年增長率。過去五年的增長。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,類似行業的其他公司(有分析師覆蓋)的收入預計將以每年6.0%的速度縮水。因此,很明顯,儘管增長放緩,北方石油天然氣公司的增長速度仍有望顯著快於整個行業。
底線
此次上調最重要的一點是,分析師上調了對今年每股收益的預期,預計商業狀況會有所改善。從積極的一面來看,他們還上調了營收預期,預計該公司的表現將好於大盤。一些投資者可能會失望地看到目標價保持不變,但我們認為,基本面改善通常是積極的-假設這些預測得到滿足!因此,北方石油天然氣公司可能是更多研究的一個很好的候選者。
分析師目前顯然愛上了北方石油天然氣公司,但在深入分析之前,你應該意識到,我們已經確定了該業務的一些警告信號,比如疲軟的資產負債表。你可以在我們的平臺上免費了解更多,並發現我們已經確定的其他4個問題。
我們還提供了北方石油和天然氣董事會和首席執行官的薪酬和在公司的任期,以及內部人士是否一直在購買股票的概述。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。