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An Intrinsic Calculation For Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. (HKG:2869) Suggests It's 46% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. (HKG:2869) Suggests It's 46% Undervalued
How far off is Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. (HKG:2869) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Greentown Service Group
Crunching The Numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥1.47b | CN¥1.85b | CN¥1.76b | CN¥1.84b | CN¥1.91b | CN¥1.96b | CN¥2.01b | CN¥2.06b | CN¥2.10b | CN¥2.14b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x6 | Analyst x6 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 3.54% | Est @ 2.95% | Est @ 2.53% | Est @ 2.23% | Est @ 2.03% | Est @ 1.89% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7% | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.3k | CN¥1.3k | CN¥1.2k | CN¥1.2k | CN¥1.1k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥13b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.1b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.7%– 1.6%) = CN¥42b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥42b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= CN¥22b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥35b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$6.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SEHK:2869 Discounted Cash Flow August 20th 2022Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Greentown Service Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.048. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Greentown Service Group, there are three relevant aspects you should explore:
- Financial Health: Does 2869 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 2869's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
綠城服務集團有限公司(HKG:2869)離其內在價值還有多遠?使用最新的財務數據,我們將通過提取預期的未來現金流並將其貼現到現值,來看看股票的定價是否公平。這將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型來實現。不要被行話嚇跑了,它背後的數學實際上是相當簡單的。
我們要提醒的是,對一家公司進行估值的方法有很多種,與貼現現金流一樣,每種方法在某些情況下都有優缺點。如果你想了解更多關於貼現現金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中詳細閲讀這種計算背後的原理。
查看我們對綠城服務集團的最新分析
仔細研究這些數字
我們將使用兩階段貼現現金流模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是一個較高的成長期,接近終值,在第二個“穩定增長”階段捕捉到。首先,我們必須對未來十年的現金流進行估計。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,所以我們將這些未來現金流的價值貼現到以今天美元計算的估計價值:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | 淨額14.7億元 | 淨額18.5億元 | 淨額17.6億元 | CN人民幣18.4億元 | 淨額19.1億元 | 淨額19.6億元 | CN元20.1億元 | CN元20.6億元 | CN元21億元 | CN元21.4億元 |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師x6 | 分析師x6 | 分析師x1 | 分析師x1 | Est@3.54% | Est@2.95% | Est@2.53% | Est@2.23% | Est@2.03% | Est@1.89% |
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@6.7% | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.3K元 | CN元1.3K元 | CN元1.2K | CN元1.2K | CN元1.1K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元130億元
我們現在需要計算終端價值,它説明瞭這十年之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率1.6%的5年平均水平。我們以6.7%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元2.1b×(1+1.6%)?(6.7%-1.6%)=CN元42b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元42b?(1+6.7%)10=CN元220億元
那麼,總價值或權益價值就是未來現金流的現值之和,在這種情況下,現金流是350億加元。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數量。與目前6.8港元的股價相比,該公司的估值似乎相當低,較目前的股價有46%的折讓。不過,請記住,這只是一個大致的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣--垃圾輸入,垃圾輸出。
聯交所:2869貼現現金流2022年8月20日重要假設
現在,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,你可以自己試一試計算,並玩弄一下假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將綠城服務集團視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了6.7%,這是基於槓桿率為1.048的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
接下來的步驟:
儘管一家公司的估值很重要,但它只是你需要對一家公司進行評估的眾多因素之一。貼現現金流模型並不是投資估值的全部。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。股價低於內在價值的原因是什麼?對於綠城服務集團,您應該探索三個相關方面:
- 財務狀況:2869是否擁有健康的資產負債表?看看我們的自由資產負債表分析,對槓桿和風險等關鍵因素進行了六項簡單的檢查。
- 未來收益:2869的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對聯交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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