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Why JX Energy's (HKG:3395) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Why JX Energy's (HKG:3395) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Despite posting strong earnings, JX Energy Ltd.'s (HKG:3395) stock didn't move much over the last week. We think that investors might be worried about the foundations the earnings are built on.
View our latest analysis for JX Energy
SEHK:3395 Earnings and Revenue History August 19th 2022Zooming In On JX Energy's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Over the twelve months to June 2022, JX Energy recorded an accrual ratio of 0.39. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CA$3.5m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CA$8.32m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CA$3.5m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not the end of the story. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively. The good news for shareholders is that JX Energy's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of JX Energy.
In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, JX Energy issued 24% more new shares over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out JX Energy's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
How Is Dilution Impacting JX Energy's Earnings Per Share (EPS)?
Three years ago, JX Energy lost money. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. Therefore, one can observe that the dilution is having a fairly profound effect on shareholder returns.
In the long term, if JX Energy's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CA$13m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that JX Energy's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to June 2022. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
Our Take On JX Energy's Profit Performance
In conclusion, JX Energy's weak accrual ratio suggested its statutory earnings have been inflated by the unusual items. Meanwhile, the new shares issued mean that shareholders now own less of the company, unless they tipped in more cash themselves. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, JX Energy's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've found that JX Energy has 4 warning signs (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
儘管公佈了強勁的收益,JX能源有限公司(HKG:3395)過去一週,股票沒有太大變動。我們認為,投資者可能擔心盈利的基礎。
查看我們對JX Energy的最新分析
聯交所:3395盈利及收入歷史2022年8月19日放大JX Energy的收益
衡量一家公司將利潤轉換為自由現金流(FCF)的程度的一個關鍵財務比率是應計比率。應計制比率從給定期間的利潤中減去FCF,然後將結果除以該時間段內公司的平均運營資產。這個比率告訴我們,一家公司的利潤中有多少不是由自由現金流支持的。
這意味着負的應計比率是一件好事,因為它表明該公司帶來的自由現金流比其利潤所暗示的要多。雖然應計比率為正並不是問題,這表明非現金利潤達到了一定的水平,但高的應計比率可以説是一件壞事,因為它表明賬面利潤與現金流不匹配。值得注意的是,有一些學術證據表明,一般來説,高應計比率對短期利潤來説不是一個好兆頭。
在截至2022年6月的12個月內,JX Energy的應計比率為0.39。從統計上講,這對未來的收益是一個真正的負面影響。換句話説,該公司在那段時間沒有產生一分錢的自由現金流。在過去的一年裏,它實際上負面自由現金流為350萬加元,而前述利潤為832萬加元。在去年自由現金流為負的背景下,我們可以想象,一些股東可能會懷疑,該公司今年350萬加元的現金消耗是否意味着高風險。然而,這並不是故事的結束。我們可以看看損益表中的不尋常項目是如何影響其應計比率的,也可以探索稀釋是如何對股東產生負面影響的。對股東來説,好消息是JX Energy去年的應計比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕讀數可能只是利潤和FCF短期錯配的一個例子。如果情況確實如此,股東應該期待本年度相對於利潤的現金流有所改善。
注:我們總是建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊此處進入我們對JX能源的資產負債表分析。
為了理解每股回報的潛力,考慮一家公司稀釋股東的程度是至關重要的。碰巧的是,JX Energy去年發行的新股增加了24%。因此,它的淨利潤現在被更多的股票瓜分。談論淨利潤,而不注意每股收益,就是被大數字分散注意力,而忽略了與之交談的較小數字每股價值。點擊此鏈接,查看JX Energy的歷史每股收益增長情況。
稀釋對JX Energy的每股收益(EPS)有何影響?
三年前,JX Energy虧損。回到去年,我們仍然不能連貫地談論增長率,因為它去年出現了虧損。我們所知道的是,雖然在過去12個月裏看到盈利是件好事,但如果公司不需要發行股票,每股盈利會更好。因此,人們可以觀察到,稀釋正在對股東回報產生相當深遠的影響。
從長遠來看,如果JX能源的收益每股可以增加,那麼股價也應該是。然而,如果其利潤增加,而每股收益持平(甚至下降),那麼股東可能看不到太多好處。對於普通散户股東來説,EPS是檢查你假設的公司利潤份額的一個很好的措施。
異常項目對利潤的影響
該公司去年有一些不同尋常的項目將利潤提高了1300萬加元,這一事實很可能在某種程度上解釋了為什麼其應計比率如此疲軟。雖然我們喜歡看到利潤增加,但當不尋常的項目做出了很大貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大的不尋常項目往往不會重複。考慮到這個名字,這並不令人驚訝。我們可以看到,JX能源的積極異常項目相對於其截至2022年6月的年度利潤來説相當重要。在其他條件不變的情況下,這可能會使法定利潤成為衡量潛在盈利能力的糟糕指標。
我們對JX能源公司利潤表現的看法
總而言之,JX Energy疲弱的應計比率表明,這些不尋常的項目誇大了其法定收益。與此同時,發行的新股意味着股東現在持有的公司股份較少,除非他們自己支付更多現金。基於上述所有原因,我們認為,乍看之下,JX Energy的法定利潤可以被認為是低質量的,因為它們很可能給投資者留下對公司過於積極的印象。考慮到這一點,除非我們對風險有透徹的瞭解,否則我們不會考慮投資股票。例如,我們發現JX Energy擁有4個警示標誌(%1與我們的關係不太好!)在進一步分析之前,這一點值得你注意。
在這篇文章中,我們研究了一些可能削弱利潤數字效用的因素,我們對此持謹慎態度。但還有很多其他方式可以讓你瞭解一家公司的看法。一些人認為,高股本回報率是高質量企業的良好標誌。雖然這可能需要為您做一些研究,但您可能會發現免費擁有高股本回報率的公司的集合,或者是內部人士購買的有用的股票清單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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