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Is Hang Lung Properties (HKG:101) A Risky Investment?
Is Hang Lung Properties (HKG:101) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Hang Lung Properties Limited (HKG:101) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Hang Lung Properties
What Is Hang Lung Properties's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 Hang Lung Properties had HK$44.9b of debt, an increase on HK$41.7b, over one year. On the flip side, it has HK$4.73b in cash leading to net debt of about HK$40.2b.
SEHK:101 Debt to Equity History August 18th 2022How Strong Is Hang Lung Properties' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Hang Lung Properties had liabilities of HK$13.7b due within 12 months, and liabilities of HK$55.0b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of HK$4.73b and HK$3.80b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by HK$60.2b.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of HK$60.1b, we think shareholders really should watch Hang Lung Properties's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Strangely Hang Lung Properties has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.8, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 17.7. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. We saw Hang Lung Properties grow its EBIT by 4.6% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hang Lung Properties's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Hang Lung Properties's free cash flow amounted to 48% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Hang Lung Properties's net debt to EBITDA and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Hang Lung Properties is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Hang Lung Properties has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
伯克希爾哈撒韋的外部基金經理理想汽車·盧直言不諱地説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。當我們考慮一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡看它對債務的使用,因為債務過重可能導致破產。與許多其他公司一樣恆隆地產有限公司(HKG:101)利用債務。但股東是否應該擔心它的債務使用情況?
為什麼債務會帶來風險?
當一家企業無法輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他債務就會變得有風險,無論是通過自由現金流還是通過以有吸引力的價格籌集資本。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人的債務,它可能會破產。然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東的股份,才能控制債務。當然,許多公司利用債務為增長提供資金,沒有任何負面後果。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。
參見我們對恆隆地產的最新分析
恆隆地產的淨負債是多少?
你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數據,但它顯示,截至2022年6月,恆隆地產的債務為449億港元,比一年前增加了417億港元。另一方面,該公司擁有47.3億港元現金,淨債務約為402億港元。
聯交所:101債轉股歷史2022年8月18日恆隆地產的資產負債表有多強?
根據最近一次公佈的資產負債表,恆隆地產有137億港元的負債在12個月內到期,550億港元的負債在12個月後到期。另一方面,該公司有47.3億港元的現金和38億港元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,其負債比現金和(近期)應收賬款之和高出602億港元。
鑑於這一赤字實際上高於該公司601億港元的市值,我們認為股東真的應該關注恆隆地產的債務水平,就像父母第一次看孩子騎車一樣。在該公司不得不迅速清理其資產負債表的情況下,股東似乎可能會遭受廣泛的稀釋。
我們通過查看公司的淨債務除以利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),並計算其息税前收益(EBIT)覆蓋利息支出(利息覆蓋)的容易程度,來衡量公司的債務負擔與其盈利能力的關係。因此,我們考慮債務相對於收益,包括折舊和攤銷費用。
奇怪的是,恆隆地產的EBITDA比率高達5.8,意味着債務很高,但利息覆蓋率高達17.7%。這意味着,除非該公司能夠獲得非常廉價的債務,否則未來的利息支出可能會增加。我們看到恆隆地產在過去12個月中息税前利潤增長了4.6%。這並不令人難以置信,但在償還債務方面,這是一件好事。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但最重要的是,未來的收益將決定恆隆地產未來能否保持健康的資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。因此,合乎邏輯的一步是看看息税前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,恆隆地產的自由現金流佔其息税前利潤的48%,低於我們的預期。這種疲軟的現金轉換增加了處理債務的難度。
我們的觀點
恆隆地產的淨債務與EBITDA之比和總負債水平肯定會給它帶來壓力,這是我們的尊重。但它的利息封面講述了一個非常不同的故事,並暗示了一些彈性。當我們考慮所有討論的因素時,在我們看來,恆隆地產使用債務似乎是在承擔一些風險。雖然這筆債務可以提高回報,但我們認為該公司現在有足夠的槓桿。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。例如-恆隆地產有1個警告標誌我們認為你應該意識到。
如果你有興趣投資於可以在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的企業,那麼看看這個免費資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業名單。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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