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Is Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Company Limited (SHSE:601717) Trading At A 35% Discount?
Is Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Company Limited (SHSE:601717) Trading At A 35% Discount?
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Company Limited (SHSE:601717) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥2.21b | CN¥2.33b | CN¥2.44b | CN¥2.55b | CN¥2.65b | CN¥2.75b | CN¥2.85b | CN¥2.95b | CN¥3.05b | CN¥3.16b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 6.53% | Est @ 5.54% | Est @ 4.85% | Est @ 4.37% | Est @ 4.03% | Est @ 3.79% | Est @ 3.63% | Est @ 3.51% | Est @ 3.43% | Est @ 3.37% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8% | CN¥2.0k | CN¥2.0k | CN¥1.9k | CN¥1.8k | CN¥1.7k | CN¥1.7k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.4k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥17b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥3.2b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.8%– 3.2%) = CN¥59b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥59b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= CN¥25b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥42b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥15.5, the company appears quite good value at a 35% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SHSE:601717 Discounted Cash Flow August 10th 2022Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.125. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group, we've compiled three fundamental aspects you should look at:
- Risks: Be aware that Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for 601717's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我們將介紹一種估算鄭州煤礦機械集團有限公司(上交所:601717)內在價值的方法,即預測其未來現金流,然後將其折現為今天的價值。我們的分析將採用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。信不信由你,遵循它並不太難,正如您將從我們的示例中看到的那樣!
我們通常認為,一家公司的價值是它未來將產生的所有現金的現值。然而,貼現現金流只是眾多估值指標中的一個,它也並非沒有缺陷。任何有興趣瞭解更多內在價值的人,都應該閲讀一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我們對鄭州煤機集團的最新分析
估計的估價是多少?
我們使用的是兩階段增長模型,也就是説,我們考慮了公司發展的兩個階段。在初期,公司可能有較高的增長率,而第二階段通常被假設為有一個穩定的增長率。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來的一美元不如現在的一美元,所以我們將這些未來現金流的價值貼現到以今天的美元計算的估計價值:
10年自由現金流(FCF)估計
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | CN人民幣22.1億元 | CN元23.3億元 | 淨額24.4億元 | CN元25.5億元 | CN元26.5億元 | CN人民幣27.5億元 | CN元28.5億元 | CN元29.5億元 | CN元30.5億元 | CN元31.6億元 |
增長率預估來源 | Est@6.53% | Est@5.54% | Est@4.85% | Est@4.37% | Est@4.03% | Est@3.79% | Est@3.63% | Est@3.51% | Est@3.43% | Est@3.37% |
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@8.8% | CN元2.0K | CN元2.0K | CN元1.9萬元 | CN元1.8K元 | CN元1.7K | CN元1.7K | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.5K | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.4K元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元170億元
第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(3.2%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用8.8%的權益成本將未來現金流貼現至當前價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元3.2b×(1+3.2%)?(8.8%-3.2%)=CN元59B
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元59B?(1+8.8%)10=250億元
總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總權益價值,在本例中為420億元人民幣。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數量。相對於目前15.5元的股價,該公司的價值似乎相當不錯,較目前的股價有35%的折讓。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生很大影響,因此最好將其視為粗略估計,而不是精確到最後一分錢。
上海證交所:601717貼現現金流2022年8月10日重要假設
上述計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,你可以自己試一試計算,並玩弄一下假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將鄭州煤機集團視為潛在股東,折現率使用股權成本,而不是計入債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了8.8%,這是基於槓桿率為1.125的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
接下來的步驟:
雖然貼現現金流的計算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要評估的眾多因素之一。用貼現現金流模型不可能獲得萬無一失的估值。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價低於內在價值嗎?對於鄭州煤機集團,我們整理了三個基本方面,你應該看看:
- 風險:要知道,鄭州煤機集團正在展示我們的投資分析中的2個警告信號,你應該知道關於……
- 管理問:內部人士是否一直在增持股票,以利用市場對601717未來前景的情緒?查看我們的管理層和董事會分析,瞭解對CEO薪酬和治理因素的見解。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其針對每隻中國股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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