One thing we could say about the analysts on MGM China Holdings Limited (HKG:2282) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the latest downgrade, the 16 analysts covering MGM China Holdings provided consensus estimates of HK$7.8b revenue in 2022, which would reflect a discernible 2.0% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 8.0% to HK$1.09 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of HK$9.1b and HK$0.98 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
View our latest analysis for MGM China Holdings
SEHK:2282 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 8th 2022
There was no major change to the consensus price target of HK$5.49, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic MGM China Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$9.10 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$3.60. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MGM China Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would also point out that the forecast 4.0% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 16% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 25% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect MGM China Holdings to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at MGM China Holdings. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on MGM China Holdings after the downgrade.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple MGM China Holdings analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
關於分析師們,我們可以説一件事美高梅中國控股有限公司(HKG:2282)-他們並不樂觀,剛剛對該組織的近期(法定)預測做出了重大負面修訂。營收和每股收益(EPS)預期都遭到了下調,這表明分析師對這項業務的態度已經惡化到了極點。
在最近一次下調評級後,追蹤米高梅中國控股的16位分析師提供了對2022年收入78億港元的一致估計,這將反映出該公司過去12個月的銷售額明顯下降了2.0%。預計虧損將收窄8.0%,至每股1.09港元。然而,在此次預估更新之前,市場的普遍預期是營收為91億港元,每股虧損0.98港元。因此,在最近的共識更新之後,人們的觀點發生了相當大的變化,分析師們大幅下調了收入預期,同時預計每股虧損將會增加。
查看我們對米高梅中國控股的最新分析
聯交所:2282盈利及收入增長2022年8月8日
市場普遍預期的5.49港元目標價沒有發生重大變化,表明該業務的表現與預期大體一致,儘管每股收益預期較低。然而,這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,因為一些投資者在評估分析師的價格目標時,也喜歡考慮預期中的價差。最樂觀的美高梅中國控股分析師給出的目標價為每股9.10港元,而最悲觀的分析師認為目標價為3.6港元。正如你可以看到的,估計的範圍很大,最低的估值不到最樂觀估計的一半,這表明對於這項業務將如何表現,存在一些強烈的分歧。考慮到這一點,我們不會過於依賴共識目標價,因為這只是一個平均值,分析師顯然對該業務有一些嚴重的分歧。
這些估計很有趣,但在觀察預測如何與米高梅中國控股公司過去的表現以及與同行業同行進行比較時,畫出一些更寬泛的筆觸可能是有用的。我們還想指出的是,截至2022年底的年化收入下降4.0%的預測好於歷史趨勢,過去五年,歷史趨勢使收入每年下降16%,而分析師對更廣泛行業公司的預測表明,收入(總計)預計每年增長25%。因此,很明顯,儘管米高梅中國控股的收入確實在下降,但分析師們也預計米高梅中國控股將比整個行業遭受更嚴重的打擊。
底線
此次評級下調最值得注意的一點是,市場普遍上調了今年的虧損預期,這表明米高梅中國控股有限公司可能並不是一帆風順。令人遺憾的是,他們還下調了收入預期,最新預測表明,該業務的銷售增長將低於更廣泛的市場。我們還驚訝地看到,目標價格沒有變化。不過,不斷惡化的商業環境(假設預測準確!)可以成為股價的領先指標,因此我們不會責怪投資者在米高梅評級下調後對米高梅中國控股更加謹慎。
話雖如此,該公司盈利的長期軌跡比明年重要得多。我們有多位米高梅中國控股分析師對2024年的預測,你可以在我們的平臺上免費看到。
當然,看到公司管理層投資大筆資金投資一隻股票,就像知道分析師是否在下調他們的預期一樣有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下這個免費內部人士正在買入的股票清單。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。