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Tencent Holdings Limited (HKG:700) Shares Could Be 34% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Tencent Holdings Limited (HKG:700) Shares Could Be 34% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Tencent Holdings Limited (HKG:700) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for Tencent Holdings
Is Tencent Holdings Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥157.5b | CN¥184.1b | CN¥229.7b | CN¥232.1b | CN¥234.8b | CN¥237.8b | CN¥241.0b | CN¥244.4b | CN¥247.9b | CN¥251.6b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x11 | Analyst x10 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 1.15% | Est @ 1.27% | Est @ 1.35% | Est @ 1.41% | Est @ 1.45% | Est @ 1.48% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | CN¥146.9k | CN¥160.3k | CN¥186.6k | CN¥176.0k | CN¥166.1k | CN¥157.0k | CN¥148.4k | CN¥140.5k | CN¥133.0k | CN¥125.9k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.5t
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥252b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (7.2%– 1.6%) = CN¥4.5t
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥4.5t÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= CN¥2.3t
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥3.8t. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$308, the company appears quite good value at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SEHK:700 Discounted Cash Flow August 8th 2022The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tencent Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.137. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Tencent Holdings, we've compiled three fundamental aspects you should explore:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Tencent Holdings that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 700's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我們將簡單介紹一種估值方法,通過估計騰訊控股控股有限公司(HKG:700)未來的現金流並將其折現至現值,來評估該公司作為投資機會的吸引力。在這種情況下,我們將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。這聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上很簡單!
對公司的估值可以有很多種方式,因此我們要指出,貼現現金流並不適用於每一種情況。對於那些熱衷於學習股票分析的人來説,這裏的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能會讓你感興趣。
查看我們對騰訊控股控股的最新分析
騰訊控股控股的估值是否公允?
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。首先,我們必須對未來十年的現金流進行估計。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來的一美元不如現在的一美元有價值,因此這些未來現金流的總和就會貼現到今天的價值:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | 淨資產1575億元 | 淨額1841億元 | 淨資產2297億元 | 淨額2321億元 | 淨資產2348億元 | 淨額2378億元 | 淨額2410億元 | 淨額2444億元 | 淨額2479億元 | 淨額2516億元 |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師x11 | 分析師x10 | 分析師x2 | 分析師x1 | Est@1.15% | Est@1.27% | Est@1.35% | Est@1.41% | Est@1.45% | Est@1.48% |
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@7.2% | CN元146.9K | CN元160.3K | CN元186.6K | CN元176.0k | CN元166.1K | CN元157.0K | CN元148.4K | CN元140.5K | CN元13.3萬元 | CN元125.9K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元1.5噸
我們現在需要計算終端價值,它説明瞭這十年之後的所有未來現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(1.6%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用7.2%的權益成本,將未來現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元252b×(1+1.6%)?(7.2%-1.6%)=CN元4.5t
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元4.5噸?(1+7.2%)10=CN元2.3噸
總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總權益價值,在本例中為3.8T元。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。相對於目前308港元的股價,該公司的價值似乎相當不錯,較目前的股價有34%的折讓。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。
聯交所:700貼現現金流2022年8月8日假設
上述計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將騰訊控股控股視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了7.2%,這是基於槓桿率為1.137的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
接下來的步驟:
就構建你的投資論文而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是投資估值的全部。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,如果終端價值增長率稍有調整,可能會極大地改變整體結果。為什麼內在價值高於當前股價?對於騰訊控股控股,我們總結了你應該探索的三個基本方面:
- 風險:舉個例子,我們發現騰訊控股控股的1個警告標誌你在這裏投資之前需要考慮的問題。
- 未來收益:與同行和更廣泛的市場相比,700的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對聯交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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