Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Alibaba Group Holding will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected.
After the upgrade, the 49 analysts covering Alibaba Group Holding are now predicting revenues of CN¥919b in 2023. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 50% to CN¥35.02. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥921b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥35.56 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business.
View our latest analysis for Alibaba Group Holding
NYSE:BABA Earnings and Revenue Growth August 5th 2022
Analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥1,049, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alibaba Group Holding at CN¥230 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥115. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests the analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alibaba Group Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Alibaba Group Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 31% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Alibaba Group Holding.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from this consensus update is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data indicates that Alibaba Group Holding's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given that analysts appear to be expecting substantial improvement in the sales pipeline, now could be the right time to take another look at Alibaba Group Holding.
Using these estimates as a starting point, we've run a discounted cash flow calculation (DCF) on Alibaba Group Holding that suggests the company could be somewhat undervalued. You can learn more about our valuation methodology on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
阿里巴巴-SW集團控股有限公司阿里巴巴(NYSE:Kleiner Perkins Caufield&Byers)股東今天將有理由微笑,分析師們大幅上調了今年的預測。分析師們大幅增加了他們的收入數字,認為阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的銷售額將大大超過他們之前的預期。
升級後,追蹤阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的49名分析師現在預測,2023年收入將達到9190億元人民幣。如果達到,這將反映出與過去12個月相比,銷售額合理地提高了7.7%。每股收益預計將躍升50%,至35.02加元。在此次更新之前,分析師一直預測2023年收入為9210億加元,每股收益為35.56元。因此,很明顯,儘管分析師們更新了他們的估計,但對這項業務的預期並沒有發生重大變化。
查看我們對阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的最新分析
紐約證券交易所:阿里巴巴收益和收入增長2022年8月5日
分析師再次確認了1,049元的目標價,表明該業務執行良好,符合預期。然而,盯着一個單一的價格目標可能是不明智的,因為共識目標實際上是分析師價格目標的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡看看預估區間,看看對該公司的估值是否存在分歧意見。目前,最樂觀的分析師對阿里巴巴-SW集團的估值為每股230元人民幣,而最悲觀的分析師估值為115元人民幣。儘管如此,由於估值範圍如此之小,這表明分析師們對他們認為公司的價值有相當好的瞭解。
這些估計很有趣,但在看看預測與阿里巴巴-SW集團過去的表現以及同行業同行的預測如何比較時,畫出一些更寬泛的筆觸可能會很有用。我們要強調的是,阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的收入增長預計將放緩,截至2023年底的預測年化增長率為10%,遠低於歷史上每年31%的增長率。過去五年的增長。與該行業的其他公司(與分析師的預測)進行比較,這些公司的總收入預計每年將增長13%。因此,很明顯,雖然收入增長預計將放緩,但整個行業的增長速度預計也將快於阿里巴巴-SW集團。
底線
從這一共識更新中最明顯的結論是,近期該業務的前景沒有重大變化,分析師們保持每股收益穩定,與之前的估計一致。幸運的是,分析師們也再次確認了他們的營收預期,表明銷售額與預期相符--儘管我們的數據顯示,阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的營收增長預計將低於整體市場。鑑於分析師似乎預計銷售渠道將出現實質性改善,現在可能是重新審視阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的合適時機。
以這些估計為起點,我們對阿里巴巴-SW集團進行了現金流貼現計算,表明該公司的價值可能被低估了。您可以在我們的平臺上了解更多關於我們的估值方法的信息。
當然,看到公司管理層投資大筆資金投資一隻股票,就像知道分析師是否在上調他們的預期一樣有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下這個免費內部人士正在買入的股票清單。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。