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Is There An Opportunity With Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd.'s (HKG:1528) 48% Undervaluation?
Is There An Opportunity With Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd.'s (HKG:1528) 48% Undervaluation?
How far off is Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. (HKG:1528) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Red Star Macalline Group
The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥2.26b | CN¥2.21b | CN¥2.18b | CN¥2.17b | CN¥2.18b | CN¥2.19b | CN¥2.21b | CN¥2.23b | CN¥2.26b | CN¥2.29b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -4.06% | Est @ -2.38% | Est @ -1.2% | Est @ -0.37% | Est @ 0.2% | Est @ 0.61% | Est @ 0.89% | Est @ 1.09% | Est @ 1.23% | Est @ 1.32% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 11% | CN¥2.0k | CN¥1.8k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.3k | CN¥1.1k | CN¥1.0k | CN¥940 | CN¥854 | CN¥776 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥13b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 11%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.3b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (11%– 1.6%) = CN¥24b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥24b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= CN¥8.0b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥21b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$2.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SEHK:1528 Discounted Cash Flow August 2nd 2022The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Red Star Macalline Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Red Star Macalline Group, there are three relevant aspects you should consider:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Red Star Macalline Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 1528's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
紅星美凱龍集團有限公司(HKG:1528)離其內在價值還有多遠?使用最新的財務數據,我們將通過預測未來的現金流,然後將其貼現到今天的價值,來看看股票的定價是否公平。我們的分析將採用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。這聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上很簡單!
不過請記住,有很多方法可以評估一家公司的價值,貼現現金流只是其中一種方法。任何有興趣瞭解更多內在價值的人,都應該閲讀一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我們對紅星美凱龍集團的最新分析
計算
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年為企業帶來的現金流。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來的一美元不如現在的一美元,所以我們將這些未來現金流的價值貼現到以今天的美元計算的估計價值:
10年自由現金流(FCF)估計
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | CN元22.6億元 | CN人民幣22.1億元 | CN元21.8億元 | CN人民幣21.7億元 | CN元21.8億元 | CN元21.9億元 | CN人民幣22.1億元 | CN元22.3億元 | CN元22.6億元 | CN元22.9億元 |
增長率預估來源 | Est@-4.06% | Est@-2.38% | Est@-1.2% | Est@-0.37% | EST@0.2% | Est@0.61% | Est@0.89% | Est@1.09% | Est@1.23% | Est@1.32% |
現值(CN元,百萬)折現@11% | CN元2.0K | CN元1.8K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.3K元 | CN元1.1K | CN元10000元 | CN元940元 | CN元854元 | CN元776元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元130億元
第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率1.6%的5年平均水平。我們以11%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元2.3b×(1+1.6%)?(11%-1.6%)=CN元24b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=240億元?(1+11%)10=CN元80億元
那麼,總價值或權益價值就是未來現金流的現值之和,在這種情況下,現金流是210億元人民幣。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數量。與目前2.9港元的股價相比,該公司的估值似乎相當低,較目前的股價有48%的折讓。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。
聯交所:1528貼現現金流2022年8月2日假設
上述計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,你可以自己試一試計算,並玩弄一下假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將紅星美凱龍視為潛在股東,我們使用股權成本作為貼現率,而不是考慮債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了11%,這是基於槓桿率為2.000的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
接下來的步驟:
儘管一家公司的估值很重要,但它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。你最好應用不同的案例和假設,看看它們會如何影響公司的估值。例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生重大影響。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價低於內在價值嗎?對於紅星美凱龍集團,您應該考慮三個相關方面:
- 風險例如,我們發現紅星美凱龍集團的3個警告標誌(1有點令人不快!)在這裏投資之前你應該意識到這一點。
- 未來收益:1528的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他高質量替代產品:你喜歡一個好的全能運動員嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票互動列表,瞭解您可能會錯過的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對聯交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
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在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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