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An Intrinsic Calculation For Yanlord Land Group Limited (SGX:Z25) Suggests It's 27% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Yanlord Land Group Limited (SGX:Z25) Suggests It's 27% Undervalued
Does the July share price for Yanlord Land Group Limited (SGX:Z25) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for Yanlord Land Group
The model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥1.58b | CN¥1.38b | CN¥1.27b | CN¥1.20b | CN¥1.17b | CN¥1.15b | CN¥1.14b | CN¥1.14b | CN¥1.15b | CN¥1.16b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -18.65% | Est @ -12.51% | Est @ -8.21% | Est @ -5.2% | Est @ -3.09% | Est @ -1.62% | Est @ -0.59% | Est @ 0.13% | Est @ 0.64% | Est @ 0.99% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 10% | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.1k | CN¥946 | CN¥813 | CN¥714 | CN¥637 | CN¥574 | CN¥521 | CN¥475 | CN¥435 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥7.7b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.2b× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (10%– 1.8%) = CN¥14b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥14b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= CN¥5.2b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥13b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$1.0, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SGX:Z25 Discounted Cash Flow July 15th 2022The assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Yanlord Land Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Yanlord Land Group, we've put together three additional aspects you should assess:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Yanlord Land Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does Z25's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
揚洛德地產集團有限公司(SGX:Z25)7月份的股價反映了它的真實價值嗎?今天,我們將通過預測公司未來的現金流並將其貼現回今天的價值來估計股票的內在價值。我們的分析將採用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。像這樣的模型可能看起來超出了外行的理解,但它們很容易被效仿。
我們通常認為,一家公司的價值是它未來將產生的所有現金的現值。然而,貼現現金流只是眾多估值指標中的一個,它也並非沒有缺陷。對於那些熱衷於學習股票分析的人來説,這裏的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能會讓你感興趣。
查看我們對YanLord置地集團的最新分析
模型
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行貼現,以得出現值估計:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | CN元15.8億元 | CN元13.8億元 | CN元12.7億元 | CN人民幣12.億元 | CN人民幣11.7億元 | CN元11.5億元 | CN元11.4億元 | CN元11.4億元 | CN元11.5億元 | CN元11.6億元 |
增長率預估來源 | Est@-18.65% | Est@-12.51% | Est@-8.21% | Est@-5.2% | Est@-3.09% | Est@-1.62% | Est@-0.59% | Est@0.13% | Est@0.64% | Est@0.99% |
現值(CN元,百萬元)折現10% | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.1K | CN元946元 | CN元813元 | CN元714元 | CN元637元 | CN元574元 | CN元521元 | CN元475元 | CN元435元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN人民幣77億元
在計算了最初10年內未來現金流的現值後,我們需要計算終止值,它考慮了第一階段之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率1.8%的5年平均水平。我們以10%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元1.2b×(1+1.8%)?(10%-1.8%)=CN元14b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元140億?(1+10%)10=CN元52億元
那麼,總價值或權益價值就是未來現金流的現值之和,在這種情況下,未來現金流的現值為13b元人民幣。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。與目前1.0新元的股價相比,該公司的估值似乎略有低估,較目前的股價有27%的折讓。不過,請記住,這只是一個大致的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣--垃圾輸入,垃圾輸出。
新交所:Z25貼現現金流2022年7月15日假設
現在,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。您不必同意這些輸入,我建議您自己重新計算並使用它們。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將YanLord Land Group視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了10%,這是基於槓桿率為2.000的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
接下來的步驟:
就構建你的投資論文而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價低於內在價值嗎?對於YanLord Land Group,我們為您提供了另外三個方面的評估:
- 風險:以風險為例-YanLord置地集團2個警告標誌(還有一點很重要)我們認為你應該知道。
- 未來收益:Z25的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他高質量替代產品:你喜歡一個好的全能運動員嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票互動列表,瞭解您可能會錯過的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每隻新加坡股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的內在價值,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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