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There's Reason For Concern Over Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited's (HKG:719) Massive 25% Price Jump
There's Reason For Concern Over Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited's (HKG:719) Massive 25% Price Jump
Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited (HKG:719) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 25% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 76%.
Following the firm bounce in price, Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.1x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing earnings at a reasonable pace. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this good earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
See our latest analysis for Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical
SEHK:719 Price Based on Past Earnings July 14th 2022 We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's earnings, revenue and cash flow.Does Growth Match The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 4.4%. The solid recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 27% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
In light of this, it's alarming that Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Final Word
Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical (1 is significant) you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
山東新華藥業股份有限公司(HKG:719)僅在過去一個月,股價就延續了近期的勢頭,上漲了25%。在過去的30天裏,年度漲幅達到了非常大的76%。
隨着股價的強勁反彈,山東新華醫藥11.1倍的市盈率可能會讓它與香港股市相比看起來像是賣出。在香港,大約一半的公司的市盈率低於9倍,甚至低於5倍的市盈率也很常見。儘管如此,我們還需要更深入地挖掘,以確定市盈率上升是否有合理的基礎。
山東新華藥業最近表現不錯,盈利增長速度合理。一種可能性是,市盈率很高,因為投資者認為,這種良好的收益增長將足以在不久的將來跑贏大盤。如果不是,那麼現有股東可能會對股價的生存能力感到有點緊張。
查看我們對山東新華藥業的最新分析
聯交所:719價格基於過去的收益2022年7月14日我們沒有分析師的預測,但您可以通過查看我們的免費山東新華醫藥的收益、收入和現金流報告。增長是否與高市盈率相匹配?
有一種固有的假設,即一家公司的市盈率應該超過市場,就像山東新華藥業的市盈率被認為是合理的。
如果我們回顧去年的收益增長,該公司公佈了4.4%的可觀增長。強勁的近期表現意味着,在過去三年中,它的每股收益總共增長了27%。因此,股東很可能會對中期盈利增長率感到滿意。
與預計未來12個月將實現15%增長的市場相比,根據最近的中期年化收益結果,該公司的增長勢頭較弱。
有鑑於此,山東新華醫藥的市盈率高於其他大多數公司,這是令人擔憂的。似乎大多數投資者忽視了最近相當有限的增長率,並希望該公司的業務前景有所好轉。如果市盈率下降到與最近的增長率更一致的水平,現有股東很可能會讓自己未來感到失望。
最後的結論
山東新華醫藥的股票受到了正確方向的推動,但其市盈率也有所上升。雖然市盈率不應該是你是否買入一隻股票的決定性因素,但它是一個很好的盈利預期晴雨表。
我們已經確定,山東新華藥業目前的市盈率遠高於預期,因為該公司最近三年的增長低於更廣泛的市場預測。目前,我們對高市盈率越來越感到不安,因為這種盈利表現不太可能長期支撐這種積極情緒。除非最近的中期狀況明顯改善,否則要接受這些價格是合理的是非常具有挑戰性的。
別忘了,可能還有其他風險。例如,我們已經確定山東新華藥業2個警示標誌(1是重要的)您應該知道。
如果這些風險讓你重新考慮對山東新華藥業的看法,探索我們的高質量股票互動列表,以瞭解還有什麼。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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