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Investing in China Energy Engineering (HKG:3996) a year ago would have delivered you a 43% gain

Investing in China Energy Engineering (HKG:3996) a year ago would have delivered you a 43% gain

一年前投資中國能源工程(HKG:3996)會給你帶來43%的收益
Simply Wall St ·  2022/07/05 20:35

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited (HKG:3996) share price is up 40% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market decline of around 21% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! The longer term returns have not been as good, with the stock price only 21% higher than it was three years ago.

被動投資指數基金可以產生與整體市場大致相當的回報。但通過選擇比平均水平更好的股票(作為多元化投資組合的一部分),人們可以做得更好。例如,中國能源工程股份有限公司(HKG:3996)股價在過去1年上漲40%,明顯超過市場約21%的跌幅(不包括股息)。如果它能夠長期保持這種優異的表現,投資者將會做得非常好!較長期的回報就沒有那麼好了,其股價僅比三年前高出21%。

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

考慮到這一點,值得關注的是,該公司的潛在基本面是長期業績的驅動力,還是存在一些差異。

Check out our latest analysis for China Energy Engineering

查看我們對中國能源工程的最新分析

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映的是投資者情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的企業表現。一種不完美但簡單的方法來考慮市場對一家公司的看法是如何改變的,那就是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。

During the last year, China Energy Engineering actually saw its earnings per share drop 6.1%.

去年,中國能源工程的每股收益實際下降了6.1%。

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

這意味着市場不太可能根據盈利增長來評判該公司。事實上,當每股收益下降而股價上漲時,這通常意味着市場在考慮其他因素。

However the year on year revenue growth of 12% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

然而,12%的同比收入增長將有所幫助。許多企業確實經歷了一個階段,他們不得不放棄一些利潤來推動業務發展,有時這是最好的。

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

您可以在下圖中看到收益和收入隨時間的變化(單擊圖表查看確切的值)。

SEHK:3996 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 6th 2022
聯交所:3996盈利及收入增長2022年7月6日

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think China Energy Engineering will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

可能值得注意的是,首席執行官的薪酬低於類似規模公司的中位數。關注首席執行官的薪酬總是值得的,但更重要的問題是,該公司是否會在未來幾年實現盈利增長。因此,看看分析師認為中國能源工程未來的收入(免費利潤預測)是很有意義的。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, China Energy Engineering's TSR for the last 1 year was 43%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。公平地説,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。碰巧的是,中國能源工程最近一年的TSR為43%,超過了前面提到的股價回報。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異是沒有好處的!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

We're pleased to report that China Energy Engineering shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 43% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 2% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Energy Engineering better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Energy Engineering (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

我們很高興地報告,中國能源工程的股東在一年的時間裏獲得了43%的總股東回報。當然,這包括股息。毫無疑問,最近的回報率遠遠好於TSR在過去五年中每年2%的損失。長期的虧損讓我們保持謹慎,但短期的TSR收益肯定暗示着更光明的未來。跟蹤股價的長期表現總是很有趣的。但要更好地理解中國能源工程,我們還需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,我們發現中國能源工程的2個警示標誌(1不容忽視!)在這裏投資之前你應該意識到這一點。

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

如果你喜歡和管理層一起買股票,那麼你可能會喜歡這本書免費公司名單。(提示:內部人士一直在買入這些股票)。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

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