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Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical (SHSE:600267) A Risky Investment?

Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical (SHSE:600267) A Risky Investment?

浙江海信藥業(上證號:600267)是一項高風險的投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2022/06/25 02:35

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600267) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

傳奇基金經理李路曾説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你評估一家公司的風險有多大時,聰明的投資者似乎知道債務--通常涉及破產--是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是浙江海信藥業股份有限公司(上海證券交易所:600267)確實揹負着債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務造成了多大的風險?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務在什麼時候是危險的?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業發展的一種工具,但如果一家企業無法償還貸款人的債務,那麼它就只能聽從貸款人的擺佈。最終,如果公司不能履行其償還債務的法定義務,股東可能會一無所有地離開。然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東的股份,才能控制債務。當然,在企業中,債務可以是一個重要的工具,特別是資本密集型企業。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。

View our latest analysis for Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical

查看我們對浙江海信藥業的最新分析

What Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's Net Debt?

浙江海信藥業的淨負債是多少?

As you can see below, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical had CN¥7.65b of debt at March 2022, down from CN¥8.71b a year prior. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.56b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥6.09b.

如下所示,截至2022年3月,浙江海信藥業的債務為人民幣76.5億元,低於一年前的人民幣87.1億元。另一方面,它擁有15.6億元現金,導致淨債務約為60.9億元。

SHSE:600267 Debt to Equity History June 25th 2022
上證綜指:600267債轉股歷史2022年6月25日

How Healthy Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's Balance Sheet?

浙江海信藥業的資產負債表有多健康?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical had liabilities of CN¥8.60b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥3.37b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.56b as well as receivables valued at CN¥2.75b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥7.66b.

從最近的資產負債表可以看出,浙江海信藥業有86.0億元的負債在一年內到期,33.7億元的負債在一年內到期。作為對這些債務的抵銷,該公司有15.6億加元的現金以及27.5億加元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債超過了現金和(近期)應收賬款的總和76.6億元。

This deficit isn't so bad because Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical is worth CN¥15.8b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

這一赤字並不是那麼糟糕,因為浙江海信藥業價值人民幣158億元,因此如果需要的話,可能會籌集到足夠的資本來支撐其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們絕對應該仔細檢查它是否能夠在不稀釋的情況下管理債務。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

為了評估一家公司的債務相對於它的收益,我們計算它的淨債務除以它的利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆蓋)。因此,我們考慮債務相對於收益,包括折舊和攤銷費用。

Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's debt is 3.4 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.8 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Worse, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's EBIT was down 26% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

浙江海信藥業的債務是其EBITDA的3.4倍,EBIT覆蓋了利息支出的3.8倍以上。這表明,儘管債務水平很高,但我們不會説它們有問題。更糟糕的是,浙江海信藥業的息税前利潤比去年下降了26%。如果盈利繼續沿着這一軌跡發展,還清債務將比説服我們在雨中跑馬拉鬆更難。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但浙江海信藥業的盈利將影響未來資產負債表的表現。因此,當考慮債務時,絕對值得關注收益趨勢。點擊此處查看互動快照。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last two years, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 94% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。因此,合乎邏輯的一步是看看息税前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。過去兩年,浙江海信藥業錄得相當於其息税前利潤94%的自由現金流,這比我們通常預期的要強。這使它處於有利的地位,如果需要的話,它可以償還債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

Neither Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's ability to grow its EBIT nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

無論是浙江海信藥業的EBIT增長能力,還是其淨債務與EBITDA之比,都沒有讓我們對其承擔更多債務的能力產生信心。但好消息是,它似乎能夠輕鬆地將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流。綜合上述因素,我們確實認為浙江海信藥業的債務對業務構成了一些風險。雖然這筆債務可以提高回報,但我們認為該公司現在有足夠的槓桿。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。要知道,浙江海信藥業正在展示我們的投資分析中的4個警告信號,你應該知道關於……

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資於可以在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的企業,那麼看看這個免費資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業名單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

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