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Earnings are growing at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002839) but shareholders still don't like its prospects

Earnings are growing at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002839) but shareholders still don't like its prospects

江蘇張家港農村商業銀行(深交所:002839)盈利增長,但股東仍不看好其前景
Simply Wall St ·  2022/06/22 19:58

Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. To wit, the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (SZSE:002839) share price managed to fall 62% over five long years. That's an unpleasant experience for long term holders. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 5.6%.

一般來説,長期投資是一條可行的道路。但這並不意味着長期投資者可以避免鉅額虧損。也就是説,江蘇張家港市農村商業銀行股份有限公司(SZSE:002839)股價在長達五年的時間裏成功下跌了62%。對於長期持有者來説,這是一段不愉快的經歷。上週,該公司股價又下跌了5.6%。

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

如果以過去一週為標準,投資者對江蘇張家港農村商業銀行的情緒並不樂觀,所以讓我們看看基本面和股價之間是否存在錯配。

Check out our latest analysis for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank

查看我們對江蘇張家港農村商業銀行的最新分析

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映的是投資者情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的企業表現。考察市場情緒如何隨時間變化的一種方法是觀察一家公司的股價和每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。

While the share price declined over five years, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 13% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

雖然股價在五年內下跌,但江蘇張家港農村商業銀行實際上成功地增加平均每年每股收益增長13%。因此,每股收益似乎並不能很好地指導人們理解市場對股票的估值。或者,增長預期在過去可能是不合理的。

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

由於每股收益增長率和股價增長率之間的鮮明對比,我們傾向於通過其他指標來了解圍繞股票不斷變化的市場情緒。

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 12% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

與股價形成對比的是,在這五年期間,營收實際上以每年12%的速度增長。因此,人們似乎必須更仔細地觀察基本面,才能理解股價低迷的原因。畢竟,可能會有機會。

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

下圖顯示了收益和收入隨時間的變化情況(如果您點擊該圖,您可以看到更多詳細信息)。

SZSE:002839 Earnings and Revenue Growth June 22nd 2022
深交所:2022年6月22日收益和收入增長002839

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

可能值得注意的是,首席執行官的薪酬低於類似規模公司的中位數。關注首席執行官的薪酬總是值得的,但更重要的問題是,該公司是否會在未來幾年實現盈利增長。因此,看看分析師認為江蘇張家港農村商業銀行未來的盈利情況(免費盈利預測)是很有意義的。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank's TSR for the last 5 years was -58%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來説,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。恰好,江蘇張家港農村商業銀行最近5年的TSR為-58%,超過了前面提到的股價回報。該公司支付的股息因此提振了總計股東回報。

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

It's good to see that Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 17% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 10% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank .

令人欣慰的是,江蘇張家港農村商業銀行在過去12個月裏以17%的總股東回報回報了股東。當然,這包括股息。值得注意的是,與最近的股價表現相比,TSR每年10%的五年年化虧損非常糟糕。長期的虧損讓我們保持謹慎,但短期的TSR收益肯定暗示着更光明的未來。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價可能產生的不同影響,但還有其他更重要的因素。為此,您應該意識到1個警告標誌我們已經與江蘇張家港農村商業銀行進行了接觸。

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

對於那些想要找到贏得投資免費最近有內幕收購的不斷增長的公司名單可能就是合適的選擇。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

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