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We Think Sinopec Oilfield Service (HKG:1033) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Sinopec Oilfield Service (HKG:1033) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認為中石化油田服務(HKG:1033)的債務承擔了一些風險
Simply Wall St ·  2022/06/21 20:38

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (HKG:1033) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的芒格支持的外部基金經理李路直言不諱地説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。當你考察一家公司的風險有多大時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因為當一家企業倒閉時,債務往往會涉及到它。我們注意到中石化油田服務總公司(HKG:1033)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但股東是否應該擔心它的債務使用情況?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

為什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業發展的一種工具,但如果一家企業無法償還貸款人的債務,那麼它就只能聽從貸款人的擺佈。如果情況真的變得很糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東的股份,才能控制債務。當然,許多公司利用債務為增長提供資金,沒有任何負面後果。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。

View our latest analysis for Sinopec Oilfield Service

查看我們對中石化油田服務的最新分析

What Is Sinopec Oilfield Service's Net Debt?

中石化油田服務的淨負債是多少?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Sinopec Oilfield Service had CN¥20.0b in debt in March 2022; about the same as the year before. However, it also had CN¥1.72b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥18.3b.

下面的圖表顯示,截至2022年3月,中石化油田服務公司的債務為200億元人民幣,與前一年大致相同。然而,它也有17.2億元現金,因此其淨債務為183億元。

SEHK:1033 Debt to Equity History June 21st 2022
聯交所:1033債轉股歷史2022年6月21日

A Look At Sinopec Oilfield Service's Liabilities

看中國石化油田服務公司的負債

The latest balance sheet data shows that Sinopec Oilfield Service had liabilities of CN¥55.2b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥2.27b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.72b and CN¥27.3b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥28.4b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,中石化油田服務一年內到期負債552億元,一年後到期負債22.7億元。另一方面,一年內有17.2億元現金和273億元應收賬款到期。因此,它的負債總額為人民幣284億元,比現金和近期應收賬款加起來還要多。

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CN¥28.8b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Sinopec Oilfield Service's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

與其288億加元的市值相比,這一赤字是相當可觀的,因此這確實表明股東應該密切關注中石化油田服務公司的債務使用情況。這表明,如果該公司需要匆忙支撐其資產負債表,股東將被嚴重稀釋。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們債務相對於收益的水平。第一個是淨債務除以利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),第二個是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息覆蓋)的多少倍。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(淨債務與EBITDA之比),也考慮了與債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。

While we wouldn't worry about Sinopec Oilfield Service's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.6, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.4 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Worse, Sinopec Oilfield Service's EBIT was down 33% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sinopec Oilfield Service's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

雖然我們不會擔心中石化油田服務的淨債務與EBITDA之比為4.6,但我們認為其1.4倍的超低利息覆蓋是高槓杆的跡象。這在很大程度上是因為該公司的鉅額折舊和攤銷費用,這可以説意味着它的EBITDA是一個非常慷慨的收益衡量標準,它的債務可能比最初看起來更沉重。最近似乎很明顯,借貸成本正在對股東的回報產生負面影響。更糟糕的是,中石化油田服務的息税前利潤比去年下降了33%。如果長期盈利保持這樣的水平,它在地獄裏償還債務的機會就像滾雪球一樣渺茫。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。但決定中石化油田服務未來保持健康資產負債表的能力,最重要的是未來的收益。所以,如果你關注未來,你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Sinopec Oilfield Service actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

但我們的最後考慮也很重要,因為一家公司不能用賬面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,我們顯然需要看看息税前利潤是否會帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去三年中,中石化油田服務實際上產生了比息税前利潤更多的自由現金流。這種強勁的現金轉換讓我們像傻朋克演唱會上節奏下降時的觀眾一樣興奮。

Our View

我們的觀點

To be frank both Sinopec Oilfield Service's interest cover and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Sinopec Oilfield Service's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Sinopec Oilfield Service (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

坦率地説,中石化油田服務的利息覆蓋率和其息税前利潤(不)增長的記錄都讓我們對其債務水平感到相當不安。但至少它在將息税前利潤轉化為自由現金流方面相當不錯;這是令人鼓舞的。從更大的角度來看,我們似乎很清楚,中石化油田服務公司的債務使用正在給公司帶來風險。如果一切順利,這可能會得到回報,但這筆債務的不利之處是永久性損失的風險更大。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。為此,您應該瞭解3個警示標誌我們已經發現了中石化油田服務公司(包括一家不太受我們歡迎的公司)。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,今天就來看看我們的淨現金成長型股票獨家名單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

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