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Is China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (HKG:308) Using Too Much Debt?

Is China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (HKG:308) Using Too Much Debt?

中旅國際投資香港(HKG:308)是否舉債過多?
Simply Wall St ·  2022/06/06 19:52

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (HKG:308) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

馬克斯説得很好,他不是擔心股價波動,而是我擔心的是永久虧損的可能性……我認識的每個實際投資者都擔心。當我們考慮一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡看它對債務的使用,因為債務過重可能導致破產。我們注意到中旅國際投資香港有限公司(HKG:308)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否讓該公司面臨風險。

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是用新資本還是用自由現金流。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人的債務,它可能會破產。然而,更常見(但代價仍然高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東的股份,只是為了支撐其資產負債表。然而,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本投資於高回報率增長的企業來説,債務可以成為一個非常好的工具。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。

See our latest analysis for China Travel International Investment Hong Kong

請參閲我們對中旅國際投資香港的最新分析

What Is China Travel International Investment Hong Kong's Debt?

中旅國際投資香港的債務是什麼?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2021 China Travel International Investment Hong Kong had debt of HK$1.09b, up from HK$660.8m in one year. However, it does have HK$3.57b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of HK$2.48b.

下圖顯示,截至2021年12月,中旅國際投資香港的債務為10.9億港元,高於一年內的6.608億港元。然而,它確實有35.7億港元的現金來抵消這一點,導致淨現金24.8億港元。

SEHK:308 Debt to Equity History June 6th 2022
聯交所:308債轉股歷史2022年6月6日

A Look At China Travel International Investment Hong Kong's Liabilities

中旅國際投資香港負債一瞥

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that China Travel International Investment Hong Kong had liabilities of HK$4.87b falling due within a year, and liabilities of HK$1.82b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$3.57b as well as receivables valued at HK$629.2m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$2.49b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

從最近的資產負債表我們可以看到,中旅國際投資香港有48.7億港元的負債在一年內到期,而18.2億港元的負債在這之後到期。該公司有35.7億港元的現金和6.292億港元的應收賬款在12個月內到期,以抵消這些債務。因此,該公司的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和高出24.9億港元。

This deficit isn't so bad because China Travel International Investment Hong Kong is worth HK$8.53b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. While it does have liabilities worth noting, China Travel International Investment Hong Kong also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if China Travel International Investment Hong Kong can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

這一赤字並不是那麼糟糕,因為中旅國際投資香港的價值為85.3億港元,因此如果需要的話,可能會籌集到足夠的資本來支撐其資產負債表。但我們肯定希望密切關注其債務帶來太大風險的跡象。儘管中旅國際投資香港確實有值得注意的債務,但它的現金也多於債務,因此我們相當有信心它能夠安全地管理其債務。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定國旅國際投資香港能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你關注未來,你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。

Over 12 months, China Travel International Investment Hong Kong reported revenue of HK$3.6b, which is a gain of 85%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. With any luck the company will be able to grow its way to profitability.

過去12個月,國旅國際投資香港公佈的收入為36億港元,增長85%,儘管該公司沒有公佈任何息税前利潤。如果運氣好的話,該公司將能夠以增長的方式實現盈利。

So How Risky Is China Travel International Investment Hong Kong?

那麼,中旅國際投資香港的風險有多大?

Although China Travel International Investment Hong Kong had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last twelve months, it made a statutory profit of HK$174m. So taking that on face value, and considering the cash, we don't think its very risky in the near term. The good news for China Travel International Investment Hong Kong shareholders is that its revenue growth is strong, making it easier to raise capital if need be. But we still think it's somewhat risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Travel International Investment Hong Kong you should know about.

儘管中旅國際投資香港在過去12個月出現息税前盈利(EBIT)虧損,但其法定利潤為1.74億港元。因此,從表面上看,考慮到現金,我們認為短期內風險不是很大。對中旅國際投資香港的股東來説,好消息是其收入增長強勁,如果需要的話,融資變得更容易。但我們仍然認為這有一定的風險。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現1中旅國際投資香港警示標誌你應該知道。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果你對一家增長迅速、資產負債表堅如磐石的公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金成長型股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

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